Saturday, September 30, 2006

Hurricane Isaac: September 30, Update A

As expected given the ocean temperatures and low wind shear, Isaac has
intensified. In the 11am NHC advisory this morning, he was upgraded to a
hurricane - the fifth hurricane of the season. The average number of
hurricanes per year is 6.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75mph (cat 1: 74-95 mph), so Isaac is
not a very strong cat 1. He is still moving fairly slowly at 7mph in a
northwestward direction.

He is heading into a region of slightly increased wind shear again, and
it looks like in a few hours he will start to interact with that low
front that I mentioned yesterday. He is still over water temperatures of
26-27 degs C and at his current speed and direction, he will be for
another day. So, there is room for a little more intensification in the
next 24 hours, but not too much. There is also a chance that he will not
intensify further - it's a battle between the ocean and atmosphere.

Not much more to say on this storm for now. All else is quiet out there
in the Atlantic.

In the Pacific on the other hand, Typhoon Xangsane killed 61 people in
the Phillippines (it hit the capital, Manila), and is now heading
towards Vietnam, due to hit there in a few hours. Typhoons are the same
as hurricanes, but that's the name for these tropical storms in the
western Pacific. This typhoon is about the same intensity as Isaac with
winds of 80mph, which makes it a mid-level cat 1 on our scale. But it
has already caused much havoc and mayhem in the far east - partly
because it hit a highly populated major city.

Until tomorrow.
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.

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