Thursday, September 28, 2006

Tropical Storm Isaac: September 28, Update A

The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory at 11am upgraded the
latest Tropical Depression to a Tropical Storm Isaac. Winds are around
40mph (TS wind range is 39-73mph), so he's a very very weak Tropical
Storm. They are basing this on satellite data of winds and as it is so
close to the lower limit of TS force winds, this upgrade in status is a
judgement call in my opinion. I probably would have kept it as a TD for
at least another advisory... but that would have been boring and you
wouldn't have heard from me. :)

Isaac is a dinky little thing really. There is dry air in the center and
to the south and west within the area of rotation. There is also dry air
surrounding the system. He is currently over water temperatures that are
barely 26 degs C, and is heading into cooler surface waters. The
subsurface waters are not really conducive for intensification. There is
some wind shear and although he is heading into a region of less shear I
don't know if that will be enough to allow much intensification.

The path keeps him out in the Atlantic.

I agree with the NHC, this storm won't get above a mid-level TS, if that.

I'll only send out one update a day on this one.

P.S. If you have any questions feel free to send me an email. I'll try
and "make up" an answer ;)

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms (my
storm blog). If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your
local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official
forecast. This is not an official forecast.

No comments: