Jyotika's Tropical Storms Blog: August 2008

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Hurricane Gustav and TS Hanna: August 31 Update A

Well there's good news and not-so-good news regarding the storms today I
suppose.

Gustav:
Let's start with the good news shall we? (yes, I see the glass as half
full generally - I'm one of *those* people). At the moment he is a weak
cat 3 storm with winds of 115 mph (cat 3 wind range: 111-130 mph) and a
not-very-well-defined eye (central pressure 957 mb). This is actually the
good news because given the water temperatures in the Gulf, and his
passage over the Loop Current he could have been much stronger at this
point. He did weaken after crossing Cuba because of dry air to the south
and the land interaction.

The Loop Current is a current of very deep warm water. It flows into the
Gulf from the Caribbean and does a little loopy thing (guess where the
name comes from?) before exiting the Gulf through the Straits of Florida,
where it becomes the Florida Current and then the well-known Gulf Stream
along the eastern coast of the US. The deep warm water is important
because as he churns up the water, he brings up more warm water instead of
cold water. At the moment, 26 deg C waters extend over 100m in depth in
this region.

Back to the good news... he is just about to emerge from crossing the Loop
Current and will soon be over water, which although has sea surface temps
over 28 deg C, only has 26 deg C water over the upper 50-75m depth.

There is also some wind shear from the south-southwest, which may have a
bit of a hand in keeping him as a cat 3.

I think the track will be a bit more to the west than the current one -
closer to TX. He is currently centered at about 26.4N, 87.3W and heading
NW at a very rapid 18 mph. There is also a possibility that he will make
landfall closer to New Orleans (to the west of it) and then skim that
coast westward towards Texas. Worst case scenario is that he makes
landfall near New Orleans and then gets stuck. Eugh. I don't think that's
in the cards though.

The bad news is that he will most likely make landfall on the west side of
New Orleans and that infamous Lake. The winds will be pushing the water
into the the Lake (unless he moves far enough west and weakens) so waters
will rise. If you want to monitor the actual water level rise, look at
tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov. They have listed the stations of interest along
the northern Gulf coast on the left. But if you want to look at other
states, click on the states map on the left and take it from there.

Hanna:
She's still a weak TS with winds of 45 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), heading
W at 10mph. She's mostly a rain event at the moment and is moving
clockwise around the southern edge of a high pressure system. We'll see
how this one progresses, but I don't have time to do a full analysis at
the moment. I'll try and get to that tomorrow.

And Now For Something Completely Different (Almost):
I want to thank you all for your wonderful support for my ramblings.
Because of you, this blog has slowly grown and there was an article in the
St. Pete Times about ME (o.k... so there were a few other people in there
too ;) ) and this blog this morning (thanks I.F.):
http://tampabay.com/news/weather/hurricanes/article791111.ece
Thanks also to Leonora and the staff for writing such a nice article.

So much for being a geek and writing in anonymity behind a faceless
computer!! But *no-one* can recognize Clark Kent is Superman because he
wears that *amazing disguise* - a pair of spectacles. I usually wear
glasses too, and the photo is without, so thankfully I should still be
unrecognizable... ;)

My time is up for today. Stay SAFE out there!
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Hurricane Gustav, TS Hanna, Blob: August 30 Update A

Bother bother bother bother. Do these storms know I'm on vacation? I'm
sure you all know what is going on from the news reports, but Bad Boy
Gustav intensified VERY RAPIDLY over the past ~30 hours from basically a
strong Tropical Storm to a CAT 4! You know, I think this time last year I
was in this same place and the storm du jour did the same darn thing
before hitting the Yucuatan. Hmmm. Anyway, we all knew it was going to
intensify, but this was beyond everyone's expectations. We've seen this
rapid intensification before - a number of times this year already, and in
previous years. This illustrates, yet again, that we still have a long way
to go before we fully understand what makes storms intensify before we can
begin to have better predictions.

Hurricane Gustav:
Made first landfall in Cuba's Isle of Youth as a mid-to-strong Cat 4 storm
with winds of 145 mph (cat 4 range: 131-155mph), central pressure of 954
mb. At this point, any interaction with Cuba probably won't do much damage
before he makes second landfall in western Cuba, and I would not rule out
the possibility that he could become a cat 5 (range: 155 mph or greater).
He's currently located at 21.6N, 82.5W, continuing NW 14 mph.

This is not good because it looks like his entry into the Gulf may be as a
major storm - cat 3. There is a high pressure expanding eastward across
the US and by the time the storm enters the Gulf, there's a good chance
he will be heading towards the TX/LA border. However, the high has not
yet reached the Gulf, so there is still uncertainty regarding landfall and
everyone is (I hope) prepared.

TS Hanna:
She's still a mid-level TS with winds of 50 mph, central pressure 1000mb.
She's currently located at 22.2N, 67W, heading WNW 8mph. She will continue
in a WNW to W direction for now as a high pressure is also building
westward across the Atlantic. Future track now depends on this high
pressure, the high pressure coming in from the west, and where Gustav
goes. Did I mention this is all a bit complicated? (as they always seem to
be).

Blob:
There's a blob out in the eastern Atlantic - one of the ones I mentioned a
couple of days ago. This one looks somewhat promising. But I am out of
time now, so I will try and get to it tomorrow.

My apologies my friends, but I really have to get going. If you More
tomorrow,
J.

Friday, August 29, 2008

TS Gustav & TS Hanna: August 29 Update A

Well the little monsters are still Tropical Storms - but not for long,
especially Gustav.

TS Gustav: Currently at around 18.6N, 78.8W, he has left Jamaica and the
next stop on his grand tour of the Caribbean are the Cayman Islands,
before getting to Cuba. He is currently moving WNW at 8mph, and I agree
with the NHC track that takes him in a NW direction to cross western Cuba.
The gazillion dollar question is what happens after that. Well, that
depends now on his speed. There is a high pressure building up across the
US from the west (so it's expanding eastward) - north of the Gulf. If
Gustav moves slowly, then he'll get caught in that high and head west
towards Texas. If he moves quickly, there is currently a gap and I still
see the AL/NW FL coast as the area he may head towards. I can see the
dilemma in forecasting this track because the graphics do not allow for a
split-skittle possibility. So... everyone needs to be getting ready.

As for intensity, he currently has winds of 65 mph (988mb), so he's a
strong TS. The satellite image has improved a lot over the last few hours
- there is no wind shear to speak of. He is going over the warmest part of
the Caribbean (over 30 deg C temps), and the deepest/warmest part with 26
deg C temps extending down to 120m depth! These are very conducive
conditions for intensification. He will be a hurricane cat 1 soon, also as
forecast. I am not sure if he'll get cat 3 by the time he reaches Cuba -
cat 2 at the most I think because he will be interacting with the
mountains.

TS Hanna:
If you are looking at the computer model tracks, you must be thinking that
a 3 year old could have done that! Those 5 day tracks are all over the
place! The complication there is the influence Gustav is having on their
long term forecasts, but also the high pressure systems - both the one
that was over Florida and is now barely there, and the one being forecast
to spread eastward across the US. She is currently at about 21.3N, 62.7W
and heading WNW at 12 mph. I still think she'll take a NW turn... and I'm
not 100% convinced she'll do this southward turn thing that they suggest
at day 4 or so, but we will see. My pressure fields are at a coarser
resolution for that.

Intensity wise - she's a weak TS with winds of 50mph. She'll stay a TS for
at least another day. Central pressure 1000mb.

Everyone still needs to keep an eye on both these systems - all Gulf
states (including Florida). I had a conversation with someone who told me
that the focus was in the LA/MS area as far as the media was concerned. I
think that's partly because this is the third anniversary week of Katrina
and they were in that area anyway... that's my guess.

I'm on this other planet where apparently only Apples can work. Bill Gates
needs to step up his marketing here! Luckily my friends are all Apple
users (yes, you can imagine the fun they are having at my expense). Grr.
;)

The blobs and blobettes will have to wait as I'm out of time.

I'll be back tomorrow...

Ciao,
J.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

TS Gustav, TS Hanna & assorted Blobs and Blobettes: August 28 Update B

Aahhh, another nice, calm day in the tropics... I am, of course, referring
to the tropics on Mars. Here on planet Earth someone's been a bit busy
with that coloring pen and the map of the Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf, haven't
they? Tut tut tut. As I didn't write about Hanna until she was a TS
(barely though - see below) - my bad!, I guess I ought to write about all
the other blobs and blobettes so you know what's what.

TS Gustav:
He's made very little progress in intensity or track and is continuing to
dump rain on poor little Jamaica. He is currently at 18.1N, 76.6W, heading
W over the island at 6mph, so he's now crawling at the same speed as a
snail ... or so I imagine it feels to the Jamaicans! Winds are holding
steady at 70mph, as expected. Central pressure is 985mb. I heard that LA
and MS declared a state of emergency. I can imagine what everyone is
thinking... but really, he could still go anywhere once he gets past Cuba.
As I said earlier, there is now room for him to take a more NW turn
towards Cuba. The track has slowly shifted eastward and now brings him
north of Grand Cayman and more solidly over western Cuba than before. But
its still a complicated situation. Everyone should be getting ready - from
the Florida to Mexico.

TS Hanna:
She's actually weakened - a combination of wind shear and dry air
continues to keep the convection on the eastern side and her max. winds
are now around 40 mph (TS: 39-73 mph), so she is barely a TS! But I think
the NHC will keep her at that because she has the potential to
re-intensify if either factor changes. Central pressure is 1003 mb. She's
located at 20.7N, 60.1W and is moving WNW at 12 mph. It still looks like
she will turn NW maybe in the next day or so. It is still too far to
assess where she'll be in five days, so everyone on the eastern seaboard
(including Bermuda) should be watching.

Going from West to East:

Blob #1 - currently located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Its got a
lot of convective activity - clouds, rain, thunder etc. but I don't see
any circulation in this at the moment. The NHC have it shaded 'orange'
indicating 20-50% probability of formation. I will keep an eye on it.

Blobette #2 - currently located in the middle of the Atlantic, between
Hanna and the Cape Verde Islands. The NHC have this shaded yellow,
indicating low probability of formation. There is some circulation in the
lower sections of the troposphere, but not much convective activity. No
self-respecting blobette would be seen out on the town looking like this!
So I'll not send out any more on this one unless it smartens up a bit.

Blob #3 - left Africa today. It has some really strong circulation in the
lowest section of the troposphere, and some not very well organized areas
of convection. The NHC have it marked as a medium probability. I'll keep
an eye on this one too.

That's all for now folks. I might send one out later tonight - mostly on
the named systems. I'm visiting another planet (in another galaxy) for the
next four days. If all goes as planned, I'll be sending updates (at least
one per day if I can) - assuming they are technologically advanced enough.
:)

Toodle pip,
J.

TS Gustav & TS Hanna: August 28 Update A

GREAT GOOGLIMOOGLIES!!! Who forgot to give Mother Nature the "It's Labor
Day Weekend: everything will be closed for the long weekend" Memo???

TS Gustav:
He's apparently touring the Caribbean. Having had a look around
Hispaniola, he made a beeline for Jamaica, where he is at the moment. He
did take his time crossing though, and appeared to stall just off the
coast of Jamaica over night.

Once he finally managed to move away from interacting with Haiti he
started to get stronger over water where temperatures are greater than 31
deg C (and 26 deg C temps over the upper 100m). His max. winds are now 70
mph (983mb central pressure), so he's a very strong Tropical Storm/almost
a cat 1 (74-95 mph range). There is a lot of convection (strong
thunderstorms), mostly over water but some over the eastern side of the
island at the moment as well.

Circulation now extends almost to the top of the troposphere (the top is
called the tropopause).

There is a bit of wind shear from the north, but it looks like it will
diminish in a day or so. Combining that with his interactions with
Jamaica, there's a chance he will remain a strong TS as he crosses the
island, and then begin to regroup over water on the other side.

The forecast calls for him to remain a hurricane from this point out,
gradually increasing to a cat 2 in 3-4 days. The official center is
somewhere around 17.9N, 76.1W. He's moving W at 5mph and is basically over
Jamaica.

That high pressure retreated northwards yesterday, which gives him plenty
of room to move in a more northward direction versus a southward one, so a
WNW-NW motion is not out of the question. The center of cone is forecast
to head right over Grand Cayman, but there is room for him to move north
of that closer towards Cuba. The high has also expanded westward into the
Gulf, bringing it closer to the Tex/Mex border at that end. But it is too
soon to make that call. As I said earlier, everyone in the Gulf states
need to be ready.

TS Hanna:
TD8 was just upgraded to a TS, which is what she looks like - satellite
winds are around 35 knots, which is about 40 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph).
You better start thinking up those cartoon jokes now...

She is currently at 20.5N, 59.2W, heading WNW at 12mph. I agree with the
NHC that she will make a NW turn in the Atlantic. I know the track looks
like it's heading towards the US eastern seaboard, but it is way too soon
to tell. Er... she might actually recurve towards Bermuda... so if you are
on that cruise next week, that's the one you want to keep an eye on.
Central pressure 1002 mb.

She's experiencing some wind shear from the west, which is keeping most of
the convection to the east of the center. Water temperatures underneath
are 29 deg C with warm waters of over 26 deg C in the upper 60m.

I'll send out another update later.
J.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

TS Gustav: August 27 Update B

Well, I suppose this wasn't too bad as "eeek-there's-a-storm-out-there"
days go ;) - Gustav has weakened further and is now a very weak TS with
max. winds of 45 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). He continued to interact with
Haiti, and also Jamaica and Cuba a bit, during the day and there was some
small wind shear - both of which impacted his intensity more than the
really warm waters underneath.

There is still some circulation in the system, but it is in the lower part
of the troposphere and is not as strong as it was earlier. The center of
circulation is difficult to find, which is not unusual in a very weak
system. The official NHC center is at 18.8N, 75.4W, but I really can't
tell where it is from the satellite images.

He started the day moving NW, then WNW, then W... and the 11pm advisory
says he is now moving W-SW at 8mph. He did slow down to a forward speed of
3mph in the afternoon, so he is still is between Haiti and Jamaica/Cuba.
The main convection is to the south and east parts of the storm. But
again, it is also much less that earlier in the day. And the rain over
Haiti has almost ended (hurray).

The W-SW movment is very interesting to me - it suggests he is following
the southward expansion of the high I mentioned earlier instead of
stalling. If he continues in that direction and the high remains in place,
it will takes him closer to crossing the Yucatan Peninsula than coming
into the Gulf! (but for everyone in the Gulf states, I would get ready
anyway). Hypothetically, if at this moment in time this storm was already
in the Gulf then I would say he's heading for NW Florida/AL, but he is
days away from being in the Gulf and everything can change.

A lot of you have asked about these 'magical' pressure maps I keep
yabbering on about (and I'm sure some of you use the word 'yabbering' or
the American equivalent... ;) ). I generally look at the 500 mb pressure
field, which is the pressure field about half way up in the troposphere
(the lowest part of the atmosphere). I get those fields twice a day from:

http://weather.noaa.gov/fax/barotrop.shtml#mb500

Item 4. is the 500 mb field, and a) is the version I am currently looking
at to get a broad overview of the pressure fields. This is at a very
coarse resolution, so it really only gives a general idea of what is going
on, but that's what I use initially. When a storm gets closer to the US, I
look at b), which has finer scale resolution.

Now you can all follow along as I say things like 'the high pressure moved
southward today', 'the high pressure expanded westward', 'the high
pressure had a shot of scotch and then fell over' etc... ;)

Tomorrow should be interesting in both intensity (which is much weaker
than forecast) and track (which I am very excited about with the southward
movement - one of these days I'll figure out why :)).

As Arnold S. said in Terminator: "I'll be back" :)

Night night,
J.

TS Gustav: August 27 Update A

I didn't send out another update yesterday because I couldn't think of
much to say. If you bought that, I er... have some land in the Arctic
(Ocean) for sale. Special offer, just for you - going cheap. ;) Nah... I
ran out of time (sorry)... too much to do and I didn't think any of you
would want to read anything I wrote at 2am anyway. To recap what happened
yesterday: Gustav made landfall in Haiti as a cat 1 storm and spent the
rest of the day there climbing mountains (and probably singing too).

In the "Gustav vs. Haiti '08" battle I suspect both sides sustained losses
(alas). We know Gustav did. He is now back to being a Tropical Storm with
maximum winds of 60 mph (TS: 39-73 mph), central pressure 997 mb, making
him a mid-to-strong storm. The center took almost 20 hours crossing the
mountainous terrain in SW Haiti, dumping rain, rain and, yes you guessed
it, more rain. And it is still thundering and raining over Haiti.

He is near 18.8N, 73.7W, heading NW at 5 mph. This is over water, close to
Haiti. His appearance is very ragged now, so it is difficult to see the
exact center of rotation. However, the water beneath him is over 30 deg C,
and the upper 100m are 26 deg C or warmer. Wind shear is low. So it looks
like he will pick up steam (pun :)). The major factor in keeping his
intensity low will be the extent of his interactions with land.

The center of the cone forecast track still calls for him to make a WNW
turn today, then a more westward turn, taking him between Cuba and
Jamaica, and then over the western tip of Cuba and into the Gulf, towards
Louisiana next Tuesday as a Hurricane. That's the 6 day forecast. A long
time into the future.

I need to wait for the next pressure fields to come out, but for now it
looks like there is a bit more room for him to continue in a NW direction
over water towards Cuba. The high I keep harping on about has extended
westward, into the Yucatan. But it has also expanded southward. It is very
unlikely that he will head too far south, so he will get slower and may
possibly stall close to/over Cuba or Jamaica. In case you missed my Fay
discussions, a slow/stalling storm makes things even more complicated and
they are very annoying to boot (unless they stall over land and get weaker
of course).

I will send out another update later, once I have the next set of pressure
maps. I might have a vision by then. Don't count on it though :)

Toodles,
J.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Hurricane Gustav: August 26 Update A

As we expected since yesterday, he is now a hurricane. Also as expected,
they have shifted his forecast track near Cuba in a more westward
direction, changing his forecast track from a NW direction to WNW. The
forecast calls for this to happen tomorrow.

Intensity: He is a strong little fella with max. winds near 90 mph (cat 1
range: 74-95 mph). It is difficult to find an eye at the moment and an
exact center of circulation, but he is close to Haiti/DR at around 17.7N,
72W. It looks like the island of Hispaniola is hindering his development
because the north-east quadrant is not very well defined. Also, the
western side of the storm is not fully developed - looks like dry air is
being entrained (pulled in) on that side. So he may just hold steady as a
cat 1 as he checks out the island, although it won't take much to make him
into a cat 2 storm. Factors that will help in intensification include the
very warm sea surface temperatures (over 30 deg C), and warm 26 deg C
temperatures covering the upper 100m of the water column. Also, the wind
shear is fairly low.

As you know by now, the intensity depends on the track - more interaction
with land means weaker storm (unless your name is Fay)... so...

Track: He is currently moving NW at 9mph around the southern edge of a
large high pressure system over the Atlantic, and the track will depend on
how that moves over the next few days. At the moment he has a bit more
room to move NW-ish, but he will slow down and take a more westward
direction as he bumps up against that high. The westward turn is because
things move clockwise around high pressure systems in the northern
hemisphere.

Too many of you asked me what I *really* thought about this storm
yesterday, so I will come clean ... I do have a little niggle in my brain
(how did you know?). But as the cover of The Hitchikers Guide to the
Galaxy says: "DON'T PANIC". :)

My little niggle is that the western edge of the high pressure is
currently oscillating between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba... which
means that the storm will head NW for now, turn WNW, head towards the
Yucatan Channel and then curve into the Gulf and around to the eastern
side of the Gulf of Mexico. This is not my favorite path for this storm to
take, because it allows for intensification.

BUT it is TOO SOON to say this is definitely what is going to happen and
the caveats are:
1. this is a few days into the future (alas, my time machine needs a new
power supply so I can't just go and have a peep)
2. the high pressure system will change in that time - it is rare for it
to stay the same for that long
3. this is a broad outline of a track - small deviations can change the
intensity because he'll be close to Cuba

Regarding point #2:
a) If the high expands westward, then he will contuinue into the Yucatan
b) If the high retreats eastward, then he will cross Cuba, cross the
Straits of Florida, and come up towards the US from that direction.

So...everything depends on that high pressure. I will get the latest
pressure fields in the middle of the day so I'll send out another update.
But we are at least another day or two away from making a better
assessment - there's not much I can do about that. Something you can all
watch out for is how close he gets to Cuba. That will give an indication
of where the high is lurking.

Let me know if you need any clarification.

Later... oh! yes... later 'noles. See... I don't pay too much attention to
college football, being British and all that. These are how I look at this
football rivalry: 'Later gators' just rhymes better, but the 'noles have a
much better/flattering color scheme... ;)

Ciao,
J.

Monday, August 25, 2008

TS Gustav: August 25 Update B

The NHC issued a special advisory at 2pm, upgrading TD 7 (officially
labeled at their 11am advisory) to TS Gustav. They will put out another
update in about 15 mins.

First my customary "I'm not sure what the NHC is doing" rant (you *knew*
that was on it's way, didn't you? :)). It was obviously a TS this morning,
and satellite winds were well over 40 knots, which is about 46 mph (1 knot
= 1.15 mph). Tropical Storm force winds range from 39-73 mph. But they
had to wait for information from a plane (which they just got) to confirm
that he is, indeed, a TS with maximum winds near 60mph now (996 mb)? I
know they are cautious, but this is a bit much... I'm having deja vu with
Fay here...

My best guess is that they didn't want the media to make as big a deal of
this 'by-passing' the TD stage and going straight to TS, which is what I
heard happened with Fay (although you all knew otherwise).

Winds of 60mph makes him a strong Tropical Storm - and there's a chance
he'll be a hurricane soon. Most of the convection is on the north and west
side, and has already started to impact Hispaniola. I fear there may be
more mudslides there. At least the TS warning watches in the DR and Haiti
have been upgraded to Hurricane warnings and watches. The two factors that
will help to keep his intensity low are: (a) the interaction with land,
and (b) he is still pulling in dry air from the south. The intensification
factors remains the same as in my earlier update. But for now I'm not sure
that's enough to stop him getting a bit stronger.

The center of a very clearly defined eye is at about 15.9N, 70.5W and he's
moving NW at 14 mph. The high pressure to his north has eroded a bit and
will continue to erode. So at some point he will make that NNW turn and
then N turn as he moves clockwise around the high. For now he will
continue to head NW, go over Haiti, then across to Cuba. this much is in
agreement with the center of the cone forecast track. After that, there is
a chance he will slow down or make a more WNW turn closer to Cuba -
depending on where the high is by the time he gets there. We are looking
at Weds, perhaps Thurs., for that.

Everyone in Florida and the Bahamas should be prepared anyway, but we'll
know more tomorrow (yes... I too can state the obvious :) ).

If you have any questions, you know I'm always happy to make up the
answers, so do drop me a line :)

Later gators,
J.

The Blob: August 25 Update A

Well that was a lovely day off, wasn't it? :)

Yes, there is a Blob (technical term meaning... a er.. blob really...for
those who have recently joined us - copyright, me, 2006ish) in the
Caribbean and it is beginning to get into shape (can blobs get into shape?
:)). It's not yet officially a Tropical Depression, and a plane will go
into the system to investigate it today. But to me it looks like it's
already trying to form an eye, there is a lot of convection in the system,
and there is good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (the
lowest section of our atmosphere), so I wouldn't be suprised if this is
already a Tropical Storm (the next one is Gustav). But that's not my call.

The 'eye' is located around 15.2N, 69.9W. Water temperatures beneath are
over 29 deg C, and warm 26 deg C waters extend down to 100m depth. There
is a low wind shear environment. All factors that will help it to develop.

It's moving in a NWish direction, which unfortunately takes it over even
warmer waters (and deeper warm waters). It's too soon to make a good
assessment of the future track - for the next day, the NW direction is
good. It's is on the southern edge of a high pressure system (systems move
clockwise around highs in the northern hemisphere) that currently extends
across the northern Caribbean and into the Yucatan peninsula. If this high
remains in place, then this system could head to Mexico. However, it is
too soon to tell if this high will remain strong. If it doesn't then the
track could be anywhere from the Bahamas to the northern/eastern Gulf.
With this later option, there is a chance the intensity will be impacted
as it crosses Cuba.

For those of you going on another Bermuda cruise... sigh... what am I
going to do with you? Didn't you get the 'Hurricane Season' memo? ;) It is
really too soon to say, and it isn't even a Tropical Storm yet. Just keep
the dramamine handy anyway... :)

More when there's something to say... (when has that ever stopped me though?)
Toodle pip,
J.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

TD Fay: August 23 Update B

As I thought, she didn't go back over the Gulf today but stayed on a
WNW-NW path, and because she continued over land, she lost steam so they
downgraded her to a tropical depression at the 11pm advisory. She still
has some isolated areas of thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall, but
she's still heading inland and no longer looks like a storm. I guess you
guys in the Pensacola and Mobile area can put your wellies away - she
moved more northward and deteriorated before she got to you. She's
currently at 30.9N, 87.1W, about 30 miles NNE of Pensacola and 60 miles
ENE of Mobile.

She's been an agathokakological storm (did you think I only knew one big
word? ;) ). Agathokakological means composed of both good and evil.
Someone (who is trying to work it into his phd dissertation) sent me that
word after reading the entry with boustrophedon. If you want someone to
complain to, I'll happily give out his name for a *very* reasonable price
(protect the innocent? me? what gave you that idea?). ;)

She's agathokakological because she brought plenty of rain to the SE US,
which was much needed. There's been a bit of a water shortage in the SE
states recently (as some of you may have noticed). Tropical storms are
responsible for about 25% of the annual rain in Florida (and I think the
SE US). So the rain was a good thing. However, it was also a bad thing
because of the flooding, and as far as I know, she was directly or
indirectly responsible for 11 deaths in Florida and over 40 in the
Caribbean. I expect them to pull the name 'Fay' from the list because of
these tragedies.

This is my last update on this storm.
That's all for now folks.

Ciao,
J.

TS Fay: August 23 Update A

Yes, she's *still* over Florida. She got to the Appalachicola region as
planned this morning, and has more-or-less stayed over land since then.
Her winds are 45 mph (central pressure 998mb), so she's a very weak
Tropical Storm (TS: 39-73 mph), but there is a lot of convective activity
associated with her on the north and east side of the storm - as you will
know if you live in northern/western Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. The
rain is coming from the Gulf of Mexico waters now, which are over 30 deg
C.

As a weak system it is not easy to locate the center from satellite or
radar images, but the NHC have it at 30.5N, 85.9W which seems about right
to me. It looks like she'll remain over land from here on out. Her motion
is W-NW at 7mph. I think track will be a little north of the forecast one
(but still in the cone), so she may not exit into the Gulf again - it
means she'll be moving more NW because the low that I mentioned a couple
of days ago is now northwest of her, and is beginning to create a path of
lower pressure for her to take. But the reason the forecast track is a
little to the south is because they think another region of high pressure
will develop to her north as she approaches Alabama, keeping her south. In
any case, it is all within that cone.

I think she wins the medal for most number of hits by one storm on any one
state - four so far.

Someone asked if it was possible for a cat 4 or 5 storm to slow down or
stall like TS Fay. It's very rare, but it can happen. The most notorious
example perhaps is Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which led to almost 9000
deaths in Honduras and Nicaragua alone from landslides that resulted from
the storm. He slowed down as it approached Honduras as a cat 5, and then
stalled for a few hours as a cat 4. By the time he really got moving
again, about 2 days later, he had downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

If there's any change in track or intensity I'll send out another update,
otherwise have a safe day - and for those of you in the
Pensacola-to-Mobile area, the rains a' comin, so don't forget to polish up
your wellington boots! :)

Toodles,
J.

TS Fay: August 22 Update B

Dear Mother Nature,

I've been enjoying my tour of Florida. Having been here for almost five
days, I've seen most of the state - the only part left really is the Tampa
Bay area but I hear there isn't much of interest there so I'm probably not
going to bother.

The Keys were beautiful, you should visit them sometimes. SW Florida was
also something you would like; I particularly enjoyed seeing the swampy
side of Florida as I traveled around down there, on my way to Lake
Okeechobee. Not much to see there other than a big lake, so I decided not
to spend too much time but moved on to Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy
Space Center. Now that was fascinating! I spent the whole day there and
didn't get bored at all. I could have hung out there for longer, but as
you know, I'm on a tight schedule and I did so want to have a quick look
at the NE coast of Florida, which is very different from the southern part
of the state. The beaches on the Atlantic side are really wild - big big
waves - and I was having such a good time that I stayed there longer than
I intended. It was nice to see the ocean where I was born.

I spent today crossing the state back to the west side, dropping in on
Gainesville on my way - it's mostly a college town, and do you know if
it's still the biggest party school in the country? Don't worry, I only
stopped for a coffee.

I'm now heading west towards Appalachicola but instead of taking the
circuitous route over land, I took the direct path, cutting over the
north-eastern tip of the Gulf of Mexico. Using my GPS, I can tell you I'm
at about 29.7N, 84.2W. The waters here are a lovely warm 29 deg C, and
with little wind shear the trip is really quite pleasant. I'm close enough
to see Tallahasse but I'm not going to visit it properly or stop because I
want to get to Appalachicola by the morning, so I've picked up my pace a
bit and am now moving at 8mph. There's not too much to stop and see here
anyway, although I must say the warm water is rejuvinating after my
travels over land all day and I'm swirling with winds of 50 mph now.

Here's a map to show you the area my Tropical Storm force winds have
covered so far:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/024715.shtml?swath#contents

Over the weekend I intend to check out the rest of the north-west coast of
Florida - maybe take another dip or two into the Gulf on the way, and then
move on to visit the southern coasts of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana before I head inland. At least that's my plan for now, but it's
all subject to change - you know me! :)

I hope all is well at home.
Your loving daughter,
Fay

P.S. Wish you were here, the weather is lovely.

---------------------------------------------------------
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Friday, August 22, 2008

TS Fay: August 22 Update A

The NHC forecast was good as she is now moving in a generally westward
direction. Ah well - maybe parts of Georgia is getting a bit of rain at
least? I know we are down here in St. Pete.

Contrary to what they said at the 5pm advisory, the 11pm discussion said:
FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

So overnight she picked up speed (and by that I mean she went from aound 0
to 6 mph in a number of hours - impressive huh?).

Official word is that her center is at 29.6N (slightly north of where she
was yesterday), 82.4W, putting her close to Gainesville, and 50 miles NE
of Cedar Key - so she stayed on target for that area from my update from a
few days ago, go figure. She's moving west-ish at 6mph.

Her overland path has resulted in a decrease in intensity (this time!),
which was as expected by everyone. Her winds are now 45 mph, making her a
very weak TS (winds: 39-73 mph). At the whopping pace she's moving at she
may not be a TS by the end of the day.

The track has her skirting the panhandle coastline in her continuing
boustrophedon-like tour of Florida, so there's room for a bit of
intensification, but not much (unless she moves south of that path and
entirely over warm water of course). (And I just thought I'd use *that*
word again because who knows when I'll get a chance to next and it's such
a great word - and it makes me chuckle!) :)

If there's any change I'll send out another update later, otherwise
tomorrow...
Bye for now,
J.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

TS Fay: August 21 Update B

Since we last met, my computer caught fire. Bet you weren't expecting that
as an opening line. As I was writing the update this morning I was
wondering where that electrical burning smell was coming from and what
that crackling noise was... you guys are lucky I got that update out! The
machine was shut down right afterwards. I obviously work too hard ;)

Anyway, you're not here to read about burning computers... you are hear to
read about this storm thingy (technical term).

She's finally made a move! Hurray hurray! ... but I'm not convinced it's
the move that the NHC is telling me she made. She still has 60 mph winds
(993 mb central pressure) and is therefore a mid-to-strong TS, and
according to them she's located at 29.4N, 81.4W.

I think there was some sort of geo-referencing problem between the visible
satellite image and the infrared satellite image today, so when the NHC at
2pm said she was making landfall near Flagler Beach, the visible was still
clearly showing her center as being slightly offshore and heading NW! It
was bizzare (just one of those days). I don't think I've seen that offset
between the two satellite images before - they are now back in alignment.
I am going with the visible, which is showing her making landfall now,
just south of the St. Augustine area at around 29.6N, 81.2W. This is north
of the NHC center of the cone (and their landfall location).

The NHC is also telling me that she's moving W at 5 mph - she's moving,
but it looks like she's moving NW to me - I suppose they do have more
accurate information from the plane that went through today, but, well...
we will know in a few hours if it is going W or NW. I know I've been wrong
before... and I know they have. The one thing I can tell you is that we'll
know her track and intensity with 100% certainty by this time next week
<grin>.

What I do agree with is the slow motion of this storm. She's still
embedded in that high, so it will be slow... I'll be sending updates out
for days and days yet. Oh what fun for you all! ;)

Until later... toodle pip,
J.

TS Fay: August 21 Update A

Tenacious Fay (not to be confused with Tenacious D, the satirical
heavy/hard/comedy rock band who should now be thanking me for this
unusual PR) is still plodding along just off the NE FL coastline. She
didn't move too much last night which is the bad news. But the good news
is that she didn't intensify either.

Track: The 11am advisory has her centered at 29.3N, 80.8W, 15 miles ENE
of Daytona Beach. From the satellite imagery it looks like she's
centered at about 29.5N, 80.6W - so a smidgen farther north and east,
and therefore farther offshore. But it's such a small difference and her
center is not very well defined anyway, so we could both be correct.The
NHC are still forecasting a WNW movement to begin soon and her re-entry
to Florida... but this is what they have been saying for over 12 hours
now and instead she's slowly drifting N or NNW and staying over water.
The official center of cone track still brings her across Florida,
exiting just south of the Big Bend area (and north of Cedar Key), and
then re-entering Florida along the panhandle coast. I'm now even less
certain of this than I was in my last update. I've just had a look at
the latest pressure maps and it looks like the weakness in the high is
in the Jacksonville area, so I think she'll continue to drift in that
general direction for a while longer. Beyond that it's high pressure
everywhere, so it's difficult to see where she will go. But all is not
lost. Yesterday I mentioned a low pressure system moving across the US
from the west. This is really her best bet for escaping from this high.
It is also moving slowly, and at the moment I think as we saw in an
earlier storm (or maybe earlier in Fay's life), the models are putting
too much emphasis on the location of this low, which is why they are
tracking west across Florida. I think she will continue NNW-ish along
the coast for a bit, then turn properly onto land somewhere in the St.
Augustine/Jax/Georgia border area, and then track NW across GA.

Intensity: Her winds are at 60mph still, and central pressure is holding
steady at 994 mb. The good news is that it looks like she's centered
over the only patch of cooler water along that coast, just west of the
Gulf Stream. Temperatures are 25-27 deg C. That and her proximity to
land is keeping her steady. Let's hope that continues. Regardless, the
NE FL beaches are probably getting a sustained pounding.

And from the central-east coast yesterday: Satellite Beach, near Patrick
AFB, was at about 22 inches of rain & the Indian River was up about 1
1/2 feet.

That's all for now folks,
J.

TS Fay: August 20 Update C

Hmm... things are not improving folks. Although earlier I didn't agree she
was over water, she most definitely is now: her location is at 28.9N,
80.5W - about 35 miles SE of Daytona Beach. One indication that she's over
water now, that was absent earlier, is that she has strengthened a bit -
60 mph winds so she's back to being a mid-to-strong storm (TS range: 39-73
mph) and her central pressure is 994 mb.

The FL east coast is a mess - people are being evacuated by boat because
of rising waters from surge and rain. And it's still raining. But I'm sure
you can all get that information and more from other sources. We are in a
state of emergency, aren't we?

She's stalled again, offshore this time - these stalling/very slow storms
really do mess things up as far as track goes. And intensity depends on
track. It's most annoying when they don't behave! Although the NHC track
has moved a little southward (exiting into the Gulf now, closer to but
still north of Cedar Key - eek!), I'm not as sure she will do that as I
was earlier today. It's still one of many possibilites.

Great googlimooglies... have I mentioned what a challenge these slow
storms are? The forecast calls for a slow WNW motion overnight, heading
back into Florida. I can see that happening, but I can also see her
heading NW along the coast, possibly making landfall north of the current
location, maybe in the St. Augustine area, then moving northwestwards into
Georgia. And she might be a cat 1 by the time she makes landfall.

To be honest, given the slowness/stalling nature of this storm, if I were
anywhere in that cone I'd be getting ready (umm...although coastal Georgia
and Jacksonville no longer appear to be in the cone). Unless she starts
turning WNW, I'm not ruling out the possibility of her heading into
Georgia as a hurricane at this point.

They will send in another plane later. I wouldn't be suprised if she does
become a hurricane. In addition to low wind shear, she's stuck over the
warm Florida Current/Gulf Stream waters. Although she's been partially
covering these waters for more than a day now, the water is still so warm
there (27-29 deg C) because it warm with depth. So anything she churns up
is warm as well.

I hope for some clarity by the morning - and also for her be moving WNW.
Actually I'll settle for her moving in any direction she can find a path
at this point, so she can move on from the east coast. I know I said days
ago that she's going to the north/central east FL coast, but I didn't mean
for her to get stuck there!

Stay safe out there,
J.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

TS Fay: August 20 Update B

I suppose it does take a good day to check out everything at Kennedy
Space Center, and that's what Fay has been doing. She's more-or-less
stalled all day - same wind speed (50mph), same location... and rain and
more rain over the east coast. I got this note from Melbourne: "We have
had 17 inches of rain and still it is raining. Slowed a bit and the
water is receding from nearly flooding my office building (1950's two
story house)." ... umm... sorry to tell you this but the NHC says
isolated places could get up to 30 inches of rain. I hope your umbrellas
are still working!

Intensity: She's not raining as heavily as she was yesterday, but there
are pockets over land as she is pulling moisture from that pesky Florida
Current/Gulf Stream just off the east coast. Fortunately most of the
really heavy rain and thunderstorms are off-shore, over the warm waters
out there. Probably not the best day to go fishing off the north/central
east coast.

Track: She's been stuck in place because she is well and truly
surrounded by high pressure and cannot 'climb' over it. She's chugging
slowly northward at 2 mph right along the coast now - a toddler could
almost er... toddle... faster than she's moving. She is still close to
Cape Canaveral. The NHC have a central location of 28.8N, 80.5W, 30
miles NNE of Cape Canaveral. I would say it's a fraction south and west
of that from the satellite images - and therefore still barely on land -
but her center is quite broad so its a close call.

The problem with a stalled system is that the atmosphere around the
immediate vicinity changes, even if they are stuck, so once they start
to move things can be quite different. There is a low pressure moving in
from the west that will hopefully 'break through' the high pressure and
I agree with the NW-to-WNW turn later tonight/early tomorrow. She'll
move very slowly though.

The official track center of the cone keeps her on land all the way
after she's turned NW, but I am still thinking somewhere between Tampa
Bay and the Big Bend. How about somewhere just north or near Cedar Key
on the west coast of Florida? It's within the cone and I hear that's a
nice place to visit as well...

If things change tonight I'll send out another note, otherwise tomorrow.
Toodles,
J.

TS Fay: August 20 Update A

I know the folks on the central/northern east coast of Florida won't
agree (thanks for the photos), but this is a fascinating system.

Track: She's still just about over Florida and continues to move much
slower than expected at a grand 3mph in a northward direction. She's
located at around 28.6N, 80.6W - right over the Melbourne/Cape Canaveral
area which is where I expected her to head towards. As I said yesterday,
the reason she's so slow is because she is encountering a high pressure
system. I have just looked at the latest pressure fields... and there
is, indeed, high pressure on almost all sides of her. The only small
avenue of movement she can take based on these is actually NW and back
over to the west side of Florida. The official forecast still has her
moving offshore a bit. I'm not sure she will make it that far east. I
think she'll try and continue northwards along the coast for a while
longer, and then move NW - this is more-or-less in agreement with the
official track and well within the cone. The less she interacts with the
warm eastern waters, the lower her intensity. At the moment, the
weakness in this high is somewhere between Tampa Bay and the Big Bend.
If that is the direction she takes, it means she will exit over the Gulf
...unless something changes - and we know *that* never happens! She will
get weaker though as she moves NW over land... although at the moment
the center of the NHC cone keeps her over land as she moves NW and that
might be a tad too north. We'll see.

Intensity: She's currently got 50mph winds (995 mb), making her a
smallish Tropical Storm, although there is still quite considerable rain
to her north (and south) - it looks like Melbourne is getting a pretty
good car wash! They have reduced her forecast intensity and no longer
have her becoming a cat 1, even if she escapes into the Atlantic for a bit.

To sum up, TS Fay looks like she's taking a boustrophedon-like tour of
Florida: the Keys, the Everglades, Kennedy Space Center, possibly aiming
for Disney next ... or maybe Tallahassee to check out the Capitol...
(That's the first time I've ever used boustrophedon in a sentence by the
way - thank you for the opportunity :)).

I'll send out another update later.
J.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

TS Fay: August 19 Update C correction...

... oops, I meant she's currently 30 miles SSW of Melbourne. East, West...
left, right... only minor details. I'm sure you all knew what I meant
anyway. :)

TS Fay: August 19 Update C

I must say I quite liked the 2-hourly updates from the NHC... although
they are going back to the usual 3 hourly now.

I agree with them, she has weakened quite a bit since this afternoon.
There is no convection to speak of on her southern side, and what's left
in the other quadrants is geatly decreased. Her winds are now 50 mph and
central pressure in 990mb, making her a mid-sized TS (TS winds: 39-73
mph).

She is currently at 27.7N, 80.7W and was moving NNE at 6mph and heading
towards Melbourne. However, in the past few hours she has been loitering,
which is turning out to be a good thing because it is helping to dissipate
this system (someone finally told her how she's supposed to behave over
land!). The NHC expect her to begin moving NNE at 5mph tonight - she's
about 30 miles SSE of Melbourne.

This stalling/v. slow motion is an indication there is high pressure in
her path - like a ball that's just encountered an uphill incline. So I
wonder if this is the high they were predicting would be in place on
Thursday that would result in the storm recurving. If it is, then it's
beginning it's impact a little ahead of schedule and the track may change.
I will get the latest pressure fields tomorrow and can assess things
better then.

Her reduction in intensity could also impact the intensity forecast. They
currently have her becoming a cat 1 on Weds evening, when she's over the
Atlantic, and the forecast calls for her to make landfall back in
northeastern Florida as a cat 1 on Thursday. Intensity is dependent on the
track as well of course.

Let's see what happens - in my book a mischieviously loitering/stalling
storm always complicates things. After all, Fay has acted so by the book
so far, right?

Until tomorrow,
J.

TS Fay: August 19 Update B

Well she's an interesting one... probably not words you want to read when
a storm is traversing the state, but scientifically she's very
interesting.

Since making landfall, the convection has been decreasing - both in terms
of intensity and in terms of areal extent. There are still possibilities
of strong thunderstorms and tornadoes - especially on her eastern side as
people along the east coast already know. See postscript at the bottom!

However, despite the reduction in convection, she is now better organized
than any point in her life and actually looks like she's trying to develop
an eye - over land! (clearly she didn't read "The Dummies Guide on How to
be a Hurricane" - but apparently we all did ... otherwise we would have
seen this coming - the NHC and models also expected her to decrease as she
crossed land). The NHC put out an advisory at 1pm (an hour ahead of normal
schedule) and just issued another one at 3pm - both somewhat irregular.
Her wind speed is now 65 mph (TS winds: 39-73 mph), so she's a strong TS
and hurricane strength gusts have been observed. Her central pressure is
986 mb - still fairly low pressure.

She is primarily picking up moisture from the Florida Current/Gulf Stream
that runs along the eastern edge of Florida. I don't think Lake Okeechobee
is really big enough or deep enough to provide this sort of energy. We
know that storms that cross the Everglades don't decrease in intensity as
much as storms crossing other parts of Florida because of the water/swamp,
and she was in that area too. Atmospheric dynamics must also be at play in
this. There is very little wind shear and dry air is not a factor. But
again, as we saw earlier this year, there is something else at work here.

As for the track, I still don't see why they have her recurving back, but
there have been times before (very few of course ;)) when I've not seen
what the models forecast in the actual observations. The forecast models
say that the high will re-build westward which will force her to curve
back. This is quite possible, but I don't have any way of confirming it
yet.

My best guess from the observations of the pressure at the moment are that
she will actually exit Florida south of the current track (which has her
exiting at Cape Canaveral - the track has shifted south between the 1pm
and 3pm advisories), possibly in the Melbourne area (or even farther
south) and then head out to the Atlantic - all within the cone though.
Currently her center is at 27.1 N, 81.1 W - crossing the NW edge of Lake
Okeechobee.

Also, I would just be getting ready anyway to be on the safe side if you
live in Georgia and S. Carolina. If there's recurving to be done, we're
still looking at Thurs. for third landfall and things can change.
I agree with the re-intensification once she's over the Atlantic again.

As for Tampa Bay - winds picked up a bit. Not much rain over my head at
the moment, but other parts of the bay may have had some.

If you wish to look at the radar for yourself click here:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

This is the Tampa Bay NWS radar - long range loop, so it may take a few
seconds to load up. Or, you can go to:

http://radar.weather.gov/

Click on a dot on the map for the radar of choice and that will give you a
still image. On the left side, under short range images, there's a link
that says 'loop', click on that for a movie.

Remember, if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask and I'll make
something up ;)

Continue to stay safe and listen to the EOC/NWS/NHC folks. I'll send out
another update later.
J.

P.S. OH!! I got my first comment on the blog site! (I think it's the first
one)! (this calls for many exclamation marks!!!). For those of you who get
this via the list, the comment said they are getting pelted in Vero Beach
and the Melbourne Doppler picked up a Tornado approaching Jupiter Island
at 10a.

It will get worse over there as she gets closer... and now even more so if
she's getting stronger.

TS Fay: August 19 Update A

O.k... so you knew I wasn't really going to sleep in, didn't you? Not with
a storm out there!

Fay made landfall around 5am ish on the SW FL coast at Cape Romano, just
south of Naples. She didn't intensify and is still a mid-to-strong TS with
winds of 60mph, even though her central pressure is 988mb. She does have a
lot of convective activity so this will be a rain event for Florida, and
closer to the center there looks like there are some very strong
thunderstorms and the occasional tornado.

Track: She made the NNE turn over night and is currently moving NNE at
9mph. The forecast has her crossing the state and exiting into the
Atlantic in the Cape Canavaral area, and then recurving back to make a
third Florida landfall (apparently she's really got it in for Florida).
I'll get the latest pressure maps at around 10.30 hopefully and will send
out an update some time later today, but at the moment I pretty much agree
with the crossing the state portion. I haven't yet seen why they have her
recurving back. In any case, she'll be much weaker by then.

Intensity: The NHC also has her remaining a TS across the entire state.
This I'm not so sure about. I know she's going to pass close to Lake
Okechobee, a large water body, but I'm not sure that will be enough to
sustain this intensity. Every hurricane that has crossed this state - even
those that cross quickly and take a shorter path - lose intensity and are
usually one or two categories less by the time the exit the other side.

Storm Surge: The forecast calls for water levels to be 3-5 feet above
normal in SW Florida in locations where the winds are blowing in-land. At
the moment Naples is showing about 1 foot above normal, and may rise a bit
more. They also say 2-4 feet above normal in the Keys - the observations
there show a max of about 1 foot and the water levels are now dropping.
There aren't any forecsts on water levels for the east coast yet, but
where there are obs on the east coast, water levels are not yet over 1
foot above normal. Those are the ones I expect to rise if at all.

For those of you who live in the Tampa Bay area and are not here and have
contacted me to ask what is going on... at the moment we have cloud cover.
I expect rain, possibly heavy rain, in a few hours as she moves NNE and
therefore a bit closer, but that's about it. I think we've had worse daily
thunderstorms. I'll add more later today (I don't expect to lose power at
all, but if I do... oh well, I've got ice cream that *must* be eaten :) ).
Pinellas lifted its mandatory evacuation orders for mobile home and zone A
residents, but schools are still closed.

Finally, yes I know there's another blob out there in the Atlantic. It's
trying to get strong but hasn't quite suceeded. If it does, the track
won't be too far removed from the one Fay took - at least as far as the
Caribbean is concerned. I won't mention this blob again unless he
develops. The next name will be Gustav. Phew... another fairly easy one to
spell.

Stay safe my peeps! :)
J.

Monday, August 18, 2008

TS Fay: August 18 Update D

Last one of the day… ("thank goodness!" I hear you say)

Track: she is on target to make her second FL landfall in the Naples area
tomorrow morning and the NHC has adjusted their track a little southward
and eastward in line with this. She is moving northward at 9 mph. The
track after that is what I expected – moving over land and then exiting in
the central/north east Florida region. I will look at the latest pressure
fields in the morning and see is a change in that thinking or if there is
better indication of where she will exit – however she will be weaker by
then anyway.

Intensity: she is still a mid-to-strong TS with winds of 60 mph. If she is
going to intensify, she has only a bit more room over Florida Bay, but she
although she has spotted areas of very strong convection, overall she is
looking more ragged now and landfall as a Tropical Storm is quite a good
possibility.

Storm surge: those on the west side of the storm will not experience much
storm surge because the winds blow in a counter-clockwise direction around
a low-pressure system in the northern hemisphere – in fact, you will see a
reduction in the normal water levels. However, the areas on the east side
of the storm will get some storm surge. You can look at the water levels
from the tides online website – the information for this is in previous
entries:
(August 4)
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-eduardo-august-4-update.html
and
(July 22)
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/07/ts-cristobal-and-hurricane-dolly-july.html

Currently no-one in Florida has had a surge greater than 1 foot above
normal levels.

That's all for today. The real fun here begins tomorrow… I think I'll
sleep in ;)

Night night,
J.

TS Fay: August 18 Update C

She's crossed the Keys, and the NHC center of circulation does now look
like the correct one as the radars and real-time information from the
stations down there showed a dip in the winds in the lower Keys, near
Key West. So she's currently over Florida Bay and this is her last
chance to build up in strength and it looks like she's going to try.
Although the convection and organization has improved near and just
north-west of her center of circulation which is over very warm waters
of 31 deg C or higher, the official wind speed is kept to 60 mph (TS:
39-73 mph) despite a drop in her central pressure to 998mb.

Dry air is still being entrained into the system but I'm not sure it's
enough and she might be a low-level be a cat 1 on (second) landfall or
at least a strong TS. The NHC at the 5pm advisory have downgraded her
forecast intensity at landfall to a TS. Within 24 hours of landfall, I
find that the official track is usually quite good, so it looks like
Fort Myers or possibly south will be where she's heading (Naples
perhaps?). They still have her on a NNW track , moving at 12 mph (so
she's also slowed a bit) and overnight I'm looking for an official
Northward and then NNE-ward turn into Florida - that's the thing we want
to look out for.

That's it for now, I'll send out another update later after the 11pm
advisory I think. In this county (Pinellas) the EOC has ordered schools
to close tomorrow, and mandatory evacuations of mobile homes and zone A
residents beginning at 6am tomorrow. This means that the USF St. Pete
campus will be closed. A day off... what shall I do? :)

Despite all my thoughts here, the EOC, NWS and NHC are the people with
the most information at their fingertips so please do not ignore their
advice.

Until later amigos,
J.

TS Fay: August 18 Update B

Track: The high continued to erode eastward and is now in the Atlantic, which means Fay can turn northward (I think she may already have done) and then northeastward. I'm more-or-less staying with my previous track: so upper upper Keys (!), over the central axis/land of Florida for a bit, and then out somewhere on the eastern side - central/northern. If the high continues to erode, she may just clip south-eastern Florida and head out into the Atlantic from there, which would be the best scenario possible. I see in the 11am advisory that her track is fractionally east than earlier today. I expect them to continue scooching it in that direction. They have her center now over the Straits at 23.6N, 81.5W moving NNW at 13 mph. I'm really not convinced this is correct, although I can see the circulation they are looking at as well. I think it might be somewhere closer to 23.8 N, 81W - but she's disorganized enough for there to be some doubt. Since yesterday (or possibly earlier, I can't remember now...it's all a blur...no, not from too much alcohol in case you were wondering! ;) ) they've been forecasting her to slow down in forward motion, I'm still waiting for that and it hasn't materialized. I don't see it happening, especially with the high eroding eastward and having cleared a path for her.

Intensity: Her winds are still 60 mph (central pressure 1003 mb), and she'll most likely be a cat 1 as she crosses the Straits. It depends also on how fast she moves across. Not much else to say that I haven't already said.

TS force winds are 39-73 mph (in case you somehow missed that in almost every other update I've sent out :) ). Real-time data from the Keys shows: Sombrero Key is recording winds of 21 knots = 24.15 mph, Molasses Reef has winds of 28 knots = 32.3 mph, Sand Key has winds of 33 knots = 37.95 mph.

As she gets closer, if you want to look at data from marine coastal and off-shore stations, there's a map on the Florida Coastal Ocean Observing System (FLCOOS) page: www.marine.usf.edu/flcoos/data.php. Click on the balloon of interest, and there should be a link in there to the data itself. (don't click the purple balloons yet because the links aren't in place for those). There are also some good links beneath the map.

Apparently everyone and their pet cat, dog and goldfish is on the National Hurricane Center website at the moment... everyone except for me as I can't get on from high volume. Or maybe they've finally decided to cut me off ;). TJ, thanks for sending me their latest update... and the previous update "track image" link was sent to me by CK and SH, so thanks there too.

We're seeing the outer cloud bands as north as Tampa Bay now. South and east of us I can see the weather is worse.

It's a 3 or 4 update sort of day...so more later.

TS Fay: August 18 Update A

Ever had one of those lovely weekends when you get away from it all and
then come back and ease back into the swing of things? No? Me neither... ;)

I've been a little (just a little though) concerned for a few days now
that the center of circulation is not quite where the NHC says - this
has been such a weak system that it has been difficult to pinpoint the
exact center and they know that too, despite planes going into the
system to investigate. Part of the problem has been that there is
circulation at different levels of the atmosphere, and they don't all
overlap exactly as you see in a classic image of a hurricane. This is
often the case with weak storms and is part of the disorganization in
the system. Another part of the problem is that the heaviest convection
is to the east of the center (and now to the north as well). She's just
exiting Cuba now and already interacting with the Straits and therefore
gaining strength. As she gets stronger her center will emerge. At the
moment it really looks east of the track they have her on and if that's
the case. either they had it in the wrong location, or she's taking a
more northward track than they forecast - both are likely in my opinion.
Her official center is somewhere around 23.3N, 81.2W. I think she's
perhaps closer to 23.3N, 80.9W. As I expected, the computer models that
were heading north and west have shifted south and east.

Track: The last advisory had her on a NNW heading at 12 mph. The high
pressure system that had her moving westward for most of the past few
days began eroding yesterday, so she began to make that NW turn... and
from what I see it has eroded further which allows her to move a little
more northward now. I will get the latest pressure fields in a couple of
hours, so I'll see how much it's really eroded, but she is moving
clockwise around that high pressure. Currently the western edge of that
high extends over the southern tip of Florida - the next fields will
show me if it's holding steady there or eroding even farther eastwards.
So from the pressure fields at the moment, it looks like landfall in the
upper Keys and then up over central Florida, exiting somewhere on the
eastern side - possibly northeastern Florida. We should have a better
idea today (obviously). I trust everyone is getting ready or is ready? I
know that folks here are making plans.

Actually, using the best technology at my fingertips, the track she'll
take is here: http://xkcd.com/453/

Intensity: She'll be crossing the warm waters in the Straits of Florida
- over 31 deg C. The warm waters of 26 deg C extend down to about 75-80
m, which is deep, but not as deep as it was south of Cuba. Wind shear
is low, and remains low ahead of her. So I can see her intensifying
today, and agree with the NHC on hurricane strength on landfall. As of
the 8am advisory, her max. wind speed was 60 mph which makes her a
mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph).

More after the 11am advisory... now I'd better go and get some water... ;)
J.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

TS Fay: August 17 Update A

Remind me not to go somewhere with limited internet access when there's a
storm heading towards me! (and you of course :) ).

TS Fay has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph (Tropical Storm range:
39-73mph) and her appearance in the satellite images is still ragged, so
she's not very strong at all yet. Her convection pretty much fell apart
earlier today, but is slowly reorganizing again. However, the convection
is still mostly to her south and east and the west is a bit drier.
Fortunately the interaction she did have with Cuba won out over the very
warm waters she has been traveling over and has kept her intensity low.

Although she's a wee tropical storm at the moment, she is a large system
and it looks like the southern tip of Florida and the Bahamas are seeing
the outer bands – in some places with heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, it looks like the northern part of Florida is experiencing the
low pressure front that I mentioned (was it only yesterday?) coming across
from the north-west. Given that the leading edge of the front is in
northern Florida, it looks like there's a strong possibility that this
storm will curve into the western part of Florida, but where? I know the
models are all over the place, but those that show the panhandle or west I
think may be too strongly following the low to the north, so they will
perhaps curve east further south by tomorrow. I'll have a better idea in
the morning.

The atmospheric pressure fields do show that the high pressure to her
north weakening, and so I would also agree with the NHC that she will make
a turn to the NW within the next few hours taking her over Cuba in the
next 24 hours. This means that she'll be interacting with land further,
and it should reduce her intensity further – in fact if the turn occurs
soon, she might take a pretty big hit crossing Cuba. There is room for
intensification over the Straits of Florida where the water temperatures
are over 30 deg C, but the warm waters are not as deep as they are south
of Cuba.

Her center is somewhere around 21N, 80.2 W and at the 5pm advisory she was
moving in a WNW direction at 15mph. Central pressure is 1003 mb.
That's all for now my friends, as I'm out of computer contact for the rest
of the day. But, like Fay, I'm heading towards Florida and will have
proper access to everything tomorrow. Remember, everyone should be
prepared anyway and heed your National Weather Service/NHC/ Emergency
Management folks.

Until tomorrow...
J.

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update B

Her center is located at 19.3N, 75.8 W and she's continuing to move
westward at 14 mph. For now she's still a very weak Tropical Storm with
winds of 45 mph and central pressure of 1005mb (TS range: 39-73 mph). The
strongest activity in her system is in the southeast quadrant at the
moment – the other quadrants looks fairly weak in terms of convection as
well. There is good circulation in lower half of the troposphere, and
there are signs of circulation developing (v. slowly) in the upper
troposphere.

Now, about her westward track. This does keep her mostly over water
instead of land and over the warmest waters I mentioned earlier. Combined
with weak wind shear, she has room to get stronger as she moves between
Cuba and Jamaica. Not only is the sea surface water warmer than 30 deg C
there, but the 26 deg C water extends down over 100m.

The high pressure is holding steady, and so my guess is she's not going to
deviate much from her westward track for another day at least, which keeps
her south and west of the current forecast track, but it also means she
has time to get stronger.

Let's see how she does overnight. Gotta run now kids…

Ciao for now,
J.

Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update A

Well the good news is that she's still not a very big system with winds of
45 mph. The not-so groovy news is that she survived Hispaniola and is
still not a bad looking little thing.

The NHC at 5am could not find her exact center of circulation, despite a
plane going in - which is an indication that she was a little ragged this
morning. THe 8am advisory says its at 18.8N, 72.8W. I can't tell for sure,
but there's a strong area of convection centered somewhere nearere 18N,
73.8W which is right over warm waters. Regardless, her intensity will
depend on how long she is over the waters around Cuba/Jamaica, which are
the warmest in the Caribbean at over 30 deg C. The longer she interacts
with land (Cuba), the better things will be.

Alas, I still don't have a high enough resolution pressure field to be
able to make a good call on the track. She is currently moving westward at
14 mph, following the southern edge of a high pressure system that extends
from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The question is when
will this erode enough to allow her to curve NW and then NE - that' why
the cone includes Florida as well. The farther west she goes, the more
likely the curve will result in the storm heading into the Gulf of course.

Interestingly, the high is supposed to erode because a low pressure system
is moving eastwards from the western US, and as I write this, I am in New
Mexico and currently sitting directly under this low pressure! This gives
you an inkling of the distances, complications, and other factors involved
in forecasting these storms - forecasts need to be accurate of features
that are thousands of miles away.

No, I have not 'run away' and didn't tell you :) - I'll be back in Florida
before she crosses Cuba. I can only imagine what the media response is to
this though.

Here are the answers to my literary quiz yesterday:
Brave New World (Huxley) - an excellent book.
All's Well That End's Well (Shakespeare) - an excellent play.

and as a bonus, someone sent me this as well:
Very Well Developed (Hefner)

Although I've not read much Hefner myself, I hear that his magazines are
bought for the excellent journalism and interesting articles. :)

I'll send out another update later.
Have fun,
J.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Tropical Storm Fay: August 15 Update B

As of the 5pm advisory, the blobette officially became a Tropical Storm!
They finally took the plunge. Phew. It's a brave new world.

Her center is at 18.5N, 69.4W over the Dominican Republic. As she's not
very well developed now (go figure), it's a little tricky for me to see
where her center is - the NHC data is from a plane. I will go with it,
although it does look a little east and north of that location, in which
case she is just now coming ashore onto the DR.

She's got winds of about 40 mph, so she's barely a TS and her interaction
with the mountainous island will knock some of the wind out of her (pun
alert :) ). Convection is strong, which is what we saw yesterday as well,
making her more of a rain event than a wind event. The only problem with
this are the possibility of landslides.

Her intensity obviously is now going to be dictated by how long she is
over land so she may be very ragged by the time she's crossed the DR &
Haiti. I don't have fine enough pressure fields to be able to comment on
her track in a few days - it could indeed head towards Florida. But she
may not be much to talk of by then, especially if she also has to deal
with Cuba.

I heard from St. Thomas - all's well. The heaviest stormy/rainy weather
passed just to their south. They are still not too happy with the NHC
comminications yesterday... but all's well that end's well.

I have intermittent internet access over the weekend, but I'll try and
check in once a day.

Quiz of the day: how many literary references did I use in this update? :)

Toodle pip!
J.

The Blobette: August 15 Update A

This "no_tropical_cyclone_not_even_a_Tropical_Depression" system is
beating the heck out of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at the moment
with some strong convection, and is heading for Hispaniola. The convection
is massive - usually the sort of cloud tops seen with a decent hurricane,
but there is no eye. I read that the reason why they didn't call it a TD
yesterday was because although the plane was showing TD/TS level winds, it
couldn't find an area of closed circulation at the surface... and the
sparse data they have now also doesn't show closed circulation,apparently.
*That* is what they are waiting to find. From where I am sitting, it looks
closed to me, and not only that, but it looks like it's now in the entire
lower troposphere and extending upwards... but I don't have the very fine
information that they have at their fingertips. Satellite winds now show
some areas with tropical storm winds (TS range:39-73 mph).

For those of you who know this jargon: there's good low level convergence
and high level divergence now as well. I will have to explain it to
everyone else at a later date... (apologies).

It's so odd... usually the NHC errs on the side of caution, but in this
case it's like there's been a switch in policy or something. Anyway, when
you emerge from this on St. Thomas, send me a note and let me know how you
fared this night.

Now, the track is, as I thought yesterday looks like it will be a little
farther south than they had... which means it will interact a bit more
directly with Haiti/DR and although PR is having very little effect on
this blobette, one can hope that the mountains ahead of the system will do
something. There is also a region of slightly higher windshear on the
western side of Hispaniola, and maybe that will also help.

I'll try and send another update out later today.
Gotta run...
J.

Sunday, August 31, 2008

Saturday, August 30, 2008

Friday, August 29, 2008

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

Monday, August 25, 2008

Saturday, August 23, 2008

Friday, August 22, 2008

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Monday, August 18, 2008

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Saturday, August 16, 2008

Friday, August 15, 2008

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