Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update A

Well the good news is that she's still not a very big system with winds of
45 mph. The not-so groovy news is that she survived Hispaniola and is
still not a bad looking little thing.

The NHC at 5am could not find her exact center of circulation, despite a
plane going in - which is an indication that she was a little ragged this
morning. THe 8am advisory says its at 18.8N, 72.8W. I can't tell for sure,
but there's a strong area of convection centered somewhere nearere 18N,
73.8W which is right over warm waters. Regardless, her intensity will
depend on how long she is over the waters around Cuba/Jamaica, which are
the warmest in the Caribbean at over 30 deg C. The longer she interacts
with land (Cuba), the better things will be.

Alas, I still don't have a high enough resolution pressure field to be
able to make a good call on the track. She is currently moving westward at
14 mph, following the southern edge of a high pressure system that extends
from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The question is when
will this erode enough to allow her to curve NW and then NE - that' why
the cone includes Florida as well. The farther west she goes, the more
likely the curve will result in the storm heading into the Gulf of course.

Interestingly, the high is supposed to erode because a low pressure system
is moving eastwards from the western US, and as I write this, I am in New
Mexico and currently sitting directly under this low pressure! This gives
you an inkling of the distances, complications, and other factors involved
in forecasting these storms - forecasts need to be accurate of features
that are thousands of miles away.

No, I have not 'run away' and didn't tell you :) - I'll be back in Florida
before she crosses Cuba. I can only imagine what the media response is to
this though.

Here are the answers to my literary quiz yesterday:
Brave New World (Huxley) - an excellent book.
All's Well That End's Well (Shakespeare) - an excellent play.

and as a bonus, someone sent me this as well:
Very Well Developed (Hefner)

Although I've not read much Hefner myself, I hear that his magazines are
bought for the excellent journalism and interesting articles. :)

I'll send out another update later.
Have fun,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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