The Blob: August 25 Update A

Well that was a lovely day off, wasn't it? :)

Yes, there is a Blob (technical term meaning... a er.. blob really...for
those who have recently joined us - copyright, me, 2006ish) in the
Caribbean and it is beginning to get into shape (can blobs get into shape?
:)). It's not yet officially a Tropical Depression, and a plane will go
into the system to investigate it today. But to me it looks like it's
already trying to form an eye, there is a lot of convection in the system,
and there is good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (the
lowest section of our atmosphere), so I wouldn't be suprised if this is
already a Tropical Storm (the next one is Gustav). But that's not my call.

The 'eye' is located around 15.2N, 69.9W. Water temperatures beneath are
over 29 deg C, and warm 26 deg C waters extend down to 100m depth. There
is a low wind shear environment. All factors that will help it to develop.

It's moving in a NWish direction, which unfortunately takes it over even
warmer waters (and deeper warm waters). It's too soon to make a good
assessment of the future track - for the next day, the NW direction is
good. It's is on the southern edge of a high pressure system (systems move
clockwise around highs in the northern hemisphere) that currently extends
across the northern Caribbean and into the Yucatan peninsula. If this high
remains in place, then this system could head to Mexico. However, it is
too soon to tell if this high will remain strong. If it doesn't then the
track could be anywhere from the Bahamas to the northern/eastern Gulf.
With this later option, there is a chance the intensity will be impacted
as it crosses Cuba.

For those of you going on another Bermuda cruise... sigh... what am I
going to do with you? Didn't you get the 'Hurricane Season' memo? ;) It is
really too soon to say, and it isn't even a Tropical Storm yet. Just keep
the dramamine handy anyway... :)

More when there's something to say... (when has that ever stopped me though?)
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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