TS Fay: August 19 Update C

I must say I quite liked the 2-hourly updates from the NHC... although
they are going back to the usual 3 hourly now.

I agree with them, she has weakened quite a bit since this afternoon.
There is no convection to speak of on her southern side, and what's left
in the other quadrants is geatly decreased. Her winds are now 50 mph and
central pressure in 990mb, making her a mid-sized TS (TS winds: 39-73
mph).

She is currently at 27.7N, 80.7W and was moving NNE at 6mph and heading
towards Melbourne. However, in the past few hours she has been loitering,
which is turning out to be a good thing because it is helping to dissipate
this system (someone finally told her how she's supposed to behave over
land!). The NHC expect her to begin moving NNE at 5mph tonight - she's
about 30 miles SSE of Melbourne.

This stalling/v. slow motion is an indication there is high pressure in
her path - like a ball that's just encountered an uphill incline. So I
wonder if this is the high they were predicting would be in place on
Thursday that would result in the storm recurving. If it is, then it's
beginning it's impact a little ahead of schedule and the track may change.
I will get the latest pressure fields tomorrow and can assess things
better then.

Her reduction in intensity could also impact the intensity forecast. They
currently have her becoming a cat 1 on Weds evening, when she's over the
Atlantic, and the forecast calls for her to make landfall back in
northeastern Florida as a cat 1 on Thursday. Intensity is dependent on the
track as well of course.

Let's see what happens - in my book a mischieviously loitering/stalling
storm always complicates things. After all, Fay has acted so by the book
so far, right?

Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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