TS Fay: August 22 Update A

The NHC forecast was good as she is now moving in a generally westward
direction. Ah well - maybe parts of Georgia is getting a bit of rain at
least? I know we are down here in St. Pete.

Contrary to what they said at the 5pm advisory, the 11pm discussion said:
FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

So overnight she picked up speed (and by that I mean she went from aound 0
to 6 mph in a number of hours - impressive huh?).

Official word is that her center is at 29.6N (slightly north of where she
was yesterday), 82.4W, putting her close to Gainesville, and 50 miles NE
of Cedar Key - so she stayed on target for that area from my update from a
few days ago, go figure. She's moving west-ish at 6mph.

Her overland path has resulted in a decrease in intensity (this time!),
which was as expected by everyone. Her winds are now 45 mph, making her a
very weak TS (winds: 39-73 mph). At the whopping pace she's moving at she
may not be a TS by the end of the day.

The track has her skirting the panhandle coastline in her continuing
boustrophedon-like tour of Florida, so there's room for a bit of
intensification, but not much (unless she moves south of that path and
entirely over warm water of course). (And I just thought I'd use *that*
word again because who knows when I'll get a chance to next and it's such
a great word - and it makes me chuckle!) :)

If there's any change I'll send out another update later, otherwise
tomorrow...
Bye for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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