Atlantic Blobette: September 1 Update A

If you are on one of the Caribbean Islands, and it's a bit overcast,
that's because you have the outer edges of a tropical system overhead. The
NHC have not yet upgraded it to a Tropical Depression, but i think they
should have earlier today. It looks like a Tropical Storm to me (next is
Erika I think). They have sent a plane on this afternoon to confirm or
deny all such rumours.

Circulation has been good all day, and convection has been really strong
for the past couple of days. If it's any consolation, I think the center
of circulation may be west of the main convection. Also, the circulation
is currently confined to the lower part of the troposphere, so it's a weak
system. And finally, in favor of keeping it small, it's moving into an
area of slightly stronger wind shear. Of course, water temperatures are
over 29 deg C. The cloud tops are very cold, indicating some very strong
thunderstorms.

I hope you guys have your umbrellas ready!

Maybe the NHC have been distracted with Hurricane Jemina, who was just
downgraded to a cat 4, and is in the eastern Pacific, about to hit Baja. I
hope she gets some rain to the southern California wildfires. Wouldn't
that be handy? I got this from a friend who lives in Pasadena:
"I can see the fires from my street. Air quality is BAD. I do not go to
the Burbank office because I do not want to breathe the air..."

Wind picked up today here, from the remains of TS Danny I presume. Another
blustery and wet day tommorrow I expect. I suppose I ought to pay
attention to the weather one of these days ... ;)

I'll send out another update if the plane finds a Tropical Storm swirling
away out there.

J.

Insert disclaimer from the previous entry here.