Atlantic Blobette: September 25 Update A

Ha ha ha... Did you really think you'd not be hearing from me again this
season? Well, better luck some other year. This year you can blame it on
El Nino. Which, coincidentally, I hear is (yet again) apparently solely
responsible for this 'quiet' season (according to my sources in the US).
Sigh. Before we even knew we were going into an El Nino (in the Pacific)
the signs were set up for a weaker season: for example, Atlantic water
temps were cool as I said at the beginning of June. There is also a lot
less water vapor in the air over the Atlantic (partly due to that Saharan
Air Layer also mentioned in an earlier entry), and there are a number of
other things afoot (and even aloft :)). The biggest influence on storms
over the Atlantic is, surprisingly, what's going on in/over the Atlantic!
What an amazing concept!! I'm a genius aren't I? I should be given an
award. ;) I'm not saying that El Nino has no impact, it's just not the
only one, and not the biggest. (And sarcasm aside... of course I'm a
genius ;)).

So, back to the Atlantic. There's a little blobette west of the Cape Verde
Islands. It's been struggling to get a grip for the past day, but
circulation isn't very strong. Convective activity has been waxing and
waning all day. I more-or-less agree with the NHC on this one. It is a
tropical depression (8th of the season), and is teetering on the edge of
being a Tropical Storm. But it is under reasonable wind shear given it's
size, and more importantly, has a lot of dry air around it, which will
inhibit it. The NHC site says something about how it'll also move over
cooler waters which will keep it down. I don't agree with that bit. It's
over temps of 28 deg C, moving over 27 deg C. Brr, yes cold indeed. Huh.
It's colder than that here when the sun is in full bloom. That water is
warm enough to sustain a storm. Should this storm manage to get a bit more
organized, the next name is 'Grace'. It's currently at about 15.4N, 31.5W,
moving NW at 14mph. Wind speeds of 35 mph, central pressure is 1008mb.

I'll try and check in over the weekend but if I don't manage to sober up,
not to worry as it'll stay in the Atlantic for now. ;)

Toodle pop,
J.

DISCLAIMER: These are just my opinions and thoughts, and not those of any
organization I represent. That should be obvious as organizations are not
generally prone to chit chat like this. If a storm is looming, please pay
attention to the NHC, weather service and your emergency managers because
they have the most up-to-date information.