Sunday, October 31, 2010

Tropical Storm Tomas: October 31, Update A

Our Tomas was a cat 2 storm earlier today with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph) but has dropped back down to a strong Tropical Storm with winds of 65mph (range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 997mb. He is not very organized (a victim of wind shear) and doesn't have a lot of convection, so he definitely looks like a Tropical Storm to me. I can't see the center very clearly and will go with the NHC location at 14.2N, 66.5W (I'm not convinced this is the right center either though). Officially he is moving W at 15mph. Again, it is difficult for me to see this westward movement because he's a bit of a mess. He might be moving Northwestward.
I finally managed to look at the pressure fields, and this little monster looks like he's going to turn Northwest and north sooner than the current forecast track indicates. The latest forecast has already moved him from heading west towards the Yucatan, to heading north towards Hispaniola. There is also a chance that he will turn sooner, and could possibly clip Puerto Rico. We'll see how this progresses.  
To mark Halloween, I've attached a little photo of a pumpkin work of art that someone sent to me last year that makes me chuckle everytime I see it. It's so British (and that's the only clue you get to what it is...until tomorrow anyway).

Ciao for now,
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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