Friday, October 29, 2010

Tropical Storms Shary and Tomas: October 29, Update A

I don't think Tropical Storms are supposed to form when I'm moving from one continent to another. I'm pretty sure that's not in the rule book. And TWO?? I only turned my attention away from the Atlantic for a couple of days. Dearie me.
Well, here I am in sunny St. Petersburg, Florida. I'm here, my cats are here, and I'm hoping my shipped cargo stuff will be here soon - silly people out there sending bombs and whatnots via plane cargo!! What a complete nuisance. If they devoted that energy and effort towards the good of all humankind just imagine how amazing things would be! I know, I know, it's an idealistic viewpoint. Sigh.
So moving onto nicer things...  we have two storms to chat about.
Tropical Storm Shary:
This is a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 65 mph (range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 993mb. Her center is at 30.9N, 65.0W, about 95 miles south of Bermuda and she's moving NNE at brisk 13mph. She will pass just south and east of the island.  Tropical Storm force winds extend out about 85 miles from the center. She's mostly a wind event with very little convection, so it should be a breezy night out there. Water temperatures are cold (25 deg C). There is so little convection and she's kind of elongated, so I don't think she's really a fully formed Tropical Storm and looks like she's already extratropical (which is what she will be forecast to become tomorrow). It looks like she'll become part of a front soon.
Tropical Storm Tomas:
Tomas was just named (number 19!... one more and I'll have to start counting on other people's fingers and toes!), although he was looking like a Tropical Storm earlier today. He is officially a weak storm with winds of 40mph and central pressure of 998mb, but he looks stronger and better developed than that to me. Possibly as much as a strong Tropical Storm actually. There's a lot of convection and a fair bit of vorticity in the entire troposphere! The vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere is west of the vorticity in the upper half of the troposphere. Once those come into alignment he will be a good looking storm with a lovely structure and will intensify further. He's moving WNW at a rapid 17mph, and is currently officially located at 11.1N, 57.5W, just outside the Caribbean and heading towards the southern windward islands. It looks to me as though his center is a bit north of that, at 11.8N, 57.4W.
That's it for today. What a week! Phew. Time for a glass of wine. ;-)
More tomorrow (of course).
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


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