Atlantic Blob: October 5, Update A

Woo-hoo... we got us another one! ;-)
 
This blob has been hanging out in the Caribbean/Western Atlantic region and over the Leeward Islands for a few days now. I think it is soused from one too many rum-based drinks (hmm...banana daiquiris ...yum!) because it is spinning around (isn't that what happens after one too many drinks? ;-)). Although the circulation still covers a broad area, the vorticity is pretty good in the lowest half of the troposphere. I would call this a Tropical Depression already actually, although the NHC currently have it at 80% chance of development into a Tropical Storm. It has been experiencing some wind shear so the convection is definitely to the east of the center, which I estimate to be around 21.5N, 65.5W. It is moving in a NW direction.
 
The VIs, PR, etc can expect rain, followed by rain, with a dash of rain on the side over the next few days. Tomorrow I'll have a look at where this blob is going. Could be heading anywhere really. Probably Bermuda. ;-)
 
Although wind shear still continues, there's a chance they will upgrade this to a named system soon. The next one is Otto.
 
Ciao for now!
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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