Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Blob: July 27, Update B

Quick update: The wind shear has diminished and circulation in the lower half of the troposphere is good now, so we have the structure of a tropical storm and I would upgrade this if I had my druthers. Convection continues to look strong too. The NHC have sent a plane in to check it out before they upgrade it, but they say ‘near 100% chance’ of this being a TS. I expect you will see TS Don in the next hour or two and I’m estimating the winds (from satellite wind data) to be in the 40-50mph range, with gusts in the 50-60mph, but the plane will return more accurate information. It is partly in the Caribbean and partly in the Gulf now, moving WNW at about 15mph. Once this clears the Mexico/Cuba landmasses it should be a “fun” system I think.

I find it interesting that they are so cautious about storms that clearly look like tropical systems, but will classify/name storms that are outside of flying range and don’t have the same features.

Ciao for now,

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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