Thursday, July 28, 2011

TS Don & Atlantic Blobette: July 28. Update C

TS Don:
Well I have returned from having a glass of wine and lo-and-behold the NHC and I are, indeed, in better agreement since the earlier entry! The NHC relocated the center southward and it is now at 24.7N, 92.5W, moving WNW at 14mph. It is also quite a bit more towards the west than previously stated (hmm… perhaps where it might have been if it had been moving WNW all along instead of NW). The forecast track has been moved southwards, with the center of the cone of uncertainty now south of Corpus Christi and currently potential landfall may be more likely closer to the Brownsville/Rio Grande region (southern Texas/Mexico area) around midnight tomorrow night. Also, the central pressure has now been decreased to 998mb (based on observations from two aircraft) and sustained winds have increased to 50mph. As you know I’m not very opinionated (ha ha ha), but I do approve. The NHC reason for this change in center and track is that Don jogged ‘temporarily westward’.

Now that’s been sorted out I can think about the intensity. Don has just finished crossing the Loop Current. Although he is still over water with temperatures around 30 deg C, those warm waters are not as deep as in the Loop Current. Combining this with the light wind shear means that I don’t really expect him to get any stronger than he is at the moment (50 mph) and I think there is even a chance that he will weaken before landfall.

Atlantic Blobette:
There is a little blobette waaay out there. It has some decent very low tropospheric circulation, and some convection, however the two are not in the same place and there isn’t any mid-to-upper level circulation yet. I’m not going to mention this one again unless it puts on a nicer frock.

That’s it for today. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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