Thursday, July 21, 2011

TS Bret, TS Cindy, and another Atlantic Blob: July 21, Update A

Sorry about the silence yesterday! I’m actually on another planet (that materializes once around this time every year in San Diego) and in my long journey here, I had a few computer glitches. C’est la vie. But I see that all is progressing in the Atlantic according to my plan, so it’s ok. ;-)

TS Bret: Really, I don’t consider him a tropical storm any more, and haven’t done so for a day at least. His convection has been dodgy for the past couple of days, and although he still has some circulation, the official wind speed has been held steady at around 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph) but the pressure has been increasing. Hmm. How did he manage that? Nope, I think he’s just a depression now. Currently central pressure is 1007mb and he is moving ENE at 10mph. I expect him to be downgraded in the next few hours and this is my last entry on Bret.  Bye Bye Bret.

TS Cindy: What a waste of a storm name! Yesterday when she was upgraded, she only had circulation in the very lowest sections of the troposphere – nothing in the mid or upper levels and there wasn’t much convection. Water temperatures were 25-26 deg C (and she’s now over even cooler waters)! This isn’t even enough to sustain a storm, let alone allow one to develop. At the most I’d say she was a subtropical storm, but officially they called her a Tropical Storm. She has estimated winds of 60mph, and an estimated central pressure of 1002mb. She is located at 42.3N, 45W, moving NE at 28mph(!) and circulation has improved in the lower half of the troposphere. But with that forward speed and given her location and the cold sea surface temperatures, I don’t think she’ll remain a Tropical Storm for much longer and they will transition her into an extratropical system any second now.

Atlantic Blob: There’s another blob in the Atlantic that the NHC are watching. I know, this is getting a bit silly isn’t it? ;-) This one is at around 15N, 50W. But there isn’t much convection and only a bit of circulation in the lowest levels of the troposphere. It’s rather disorganized.  I’ll keep an eye on this next Atlantic Blob and send out a short word (by smoke signals if I have to!) if it looks like it’s going to make a move.

Until then, I’m going to hang out with some aliens, eat ice cream and popcorn sandwiches, and drink wine (on this planet no-one has what we on earth consider a healthy diet). ;-)

Live long and prosper,



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DISCLAIMER:These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


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