Monday, July 18, 2011

Tropical Storm Bret: July 18, Update A (written on 17, posted after midnight)

Oh bother... I forgot to tell Mother Nature I was taking a week off. I *knew* I forgot something! I suppose it's a wee bit too late now, huh? Ah well, so long as you don't mind me writing with an experimental orange martini in one hand... ;-)

I see that little Tropical Storm Bret was named at 5pm EST today, with winds around 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 1009mb. He is currently centered at 27.1N, 78W and since his formation (9 hours ago), winds have increased slightly to 45mph and pressure has decreased to 1002mb. Although he developed near the Bahamas, he was actually part of a larger low pressure trough that extended all the way from the southern half of the Florida peninsula, out into the northeast Atlantic - yesterday he was a just a blob in string of blobs, but in the last few hours his circulation has improved throughout the lower half of the troposphere and so I agree, we have a tropical storm

He hasn't really moved much since he was named - the latest official word from the NHC is that he is 'moving' SSE at 4mph (i.e. he's pretty much stationary). It does look to me that he will begin to move towards the North-Northeast soon, and in that I think I agree with the NHC.

Over the past few hours, in addition to stronger circulation, the convective activity in Bret has improved near the center, which is why he is slowly strengthening. It looks like parts of the Bahamas are getting a bit of a soaking. Lucky I didn't go there for a holiday... I didn't really want "umbrella" drinks ;-).

Hmm… speaking of which, time to get back to my neglected martini. We'll be Back with Bret tomorrow.

Until then, night night!

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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