Friday, September 16, 2011

Hurricane Maria: September 15, Update A

Really? A hurricane? And we were all getting along so nicely. Sigh. For some reason, the NHC have decided that Maria is now a Hurricane. I would have to politely disagree.

Officially she is at 38.5N, 63.5W, and is moving NE at 43 mph (!!)!!(!!)!! (yes, even my parenthetical exclamation marks have exclamation marks! (<--- one that escaped the herd). Winds are 80mph, central pressure 984mb. 80mph winds makes her fall into that hurricane cat 1 range of 74-95mph. A forward movement of 43mph makes her most definitely a storm that has merged with a low pressure front and is therefore not a hurricane!! (<--- I can’t help it!).

Here is the Infra-red satellite image of Maria at 02:45 UTC… around 9:45pm EST. The official numbers I mention above are in the 11pm EST.

That does not even look like a hurricane!!(!!).

They upgraded her at the 5pm advisory.. when she was at 35.2N, 65.6W. Outside of the tropics and just over 200 miles NNW of Bermuda. Water temperatures in this area are 26-27 deg C, so just about enough to sustain a Tropical Storm, not really to turn one into a hurricane.

Circulation continues to remain strong in the lower troposphere, but the upper tropospheric circulation was a little stronger when she was farther south, near Bermuda. So that has weakened.

Wind shear is also pretty strong… which is why she’s all over the map. She is feeling a wind shear of 30-70 knots at the moment – so the shear is in some parts as strong as the winds within the storm. Hmm. Coincidence? Hmm. Wind shear will continue to remain strong.

I understand that Newfoundland will get some windy weather, with a bit of rain. But really, a hurricane?

Meanwhile, back on Bermuda… they got some stormy weather this afternoon from Tropical Storm Maria, as expected. From Steve at 1pm EST: “ A rather large limb on tree in front of our labs snapped. The bamboo outside my lab is swirling wildly and it's starting to get darker!” That seems to be the worst of it that I heard about … well, other than he couldn’t get his afternoon tea from the other building because it was raining horizontally, and it would have diluted the tea (we can’t be having that!).

That’s it from me from sunny Jacksonville (well, I’m sure it would be sunny if it wasn’t the middle of the night). (Huh. A Hurricane. Huh. Mumble grumble).

Night night!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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