For some inexplicable reason the NHC decided to say in the 11am advisory that: “...OPHELIA BECOMES STRONGER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...” , and they increased the wind speed this morning from 45mph (5am advisory) to 60mph (11am advisory). Oh, my bad, I forgot… they did give a “reason”. I’ll get to that in a moment. Her winds have stayed at 60mph all day, which means she’s a mid-to-strong sized Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is currently estimated to be 1000mb. Here is the IR satellite image from earlier today, taken just after I read she had winds of 60mph, and the second image is the IR image I posted from yesterday evening (check the date stamp at the bottom if you get them confused):
See any changes? Isn’t it funny how she looks like she got a little weaker overnight, not stronger? Would you like to know the reason why the NHC said she got stronger this morning? (you’ll love this, I did) From the NHC 11am Advisory: “ALTHOUGH OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A 1200 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP PBSY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. SINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS CURRENTLY NOT SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WAS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.”
And the English translation: we have said she’s stronger now because she looks weaker than yesterday, but we have a ship reading and a satellite (ASCAT) estimate that says the winds are stronger than we think they should be if she weakened from our guesstimate yesterday, so we were wrong yesterday.
I have more than one problem with this:
1. The logical reasoning.
2. They say she ‘becomes stronger’ as she moves across the Atlantic, when actually she weakened.
3.The belief in today’s observations, compared to yesterday’s – and a single ship reading is not enough to tip the scales.
4.The convoluted explanation.
5.They didn’t change yesterday’s winds, but if they were stronger than this morning as the message suggests, it means she was closer to being a hurricane than expected… she was no way near being that strong yesterday!
Moving on from this…. She is currently at about 13.5N, 45W, moving generally westward at 16mph. The high pressure to her north and west has been growing and now extends into the Caribbean. I think tomorrow she will slow down in speed because there appears to be high pressure in front of her (for her, that’s like climbing up a hill). She will continue to try and move westward until this high pressure erodes. The models are in good agreement that she’ll curve WNW and NW towards the northeastern Caribbean, possibly staying on the Atlantic side of the Virgin Islands. If she slows down in the next 24 hours, there is a possibility that this forecast track might shift southward. However the models have been rather good at the track with the last few storms, which is why I am not sure if the high pressure will stay in place. Tomorrow I’ll be looking at her forward speed.
Wind shear remains strong. Her center is to the southwest of the convection, and most of the convection is concentrated in the northeast quadrant of the storm.
Now forget about those silly storm thingies. That’s not really why you are here, is it? You want to know about how many Shakespeare quotes I think I put in yesterday’s estimate. J Jim and Gary, both from Florida, were the closest with 9 and 13 respectively. Gary said he had a margin of error of 3, so he might have the correct number. But overestimating the number in my mind is fantastic… it means my writing is indistinguishable from Shakespeare’s writings!! And that means I’m a genius writer, or we’ve just provided more evidence that any monkey can write like Shakespeare. ;-)
The Answers from yesterday:
1. Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me your ears. From Julius Caesar. (No, he’s not asking for people to do a Van Gogh and literally lend him their ears!)
2. …when last we met… From er… that well-known Shakespearean piece that I remember well, called Star Wars. Umm, that was a deliberate red herring, yeah, deliberate, that’s right…. Besides it’s so easy to confuse Darth Vadar with Romeo these days, isn’t it?
3. …glass of fashion… From Hamlet (the glass of fashion means a mirror of comportment or mirror of form… not to be confused with Harry Potter’s Mirror of Eirised ;-))
4. Tempest From The Tempest ( ok, this was more of a title than a quote)
5. …what’s in a name?... from Romeo and Juliet (the famous bit that follows is: That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet)
6. ...to be or not to be… From Hamlet (possibly the most famous line of them all!)
7. …more things in heaven and earth. From Hamlet.
8. …let every eye negotiate for itself. From Much Ado About Nothing.
9. …all that glisters is not gold… From The Merchant of Venice (sometimes contorted to all the glistens is not gold – I think)
10. … go thou with her to the west… From The Two Gentlemen of Verona
11. More tomorrow, tomorrow and tomorrow. From Macbeth (that Scottish play ;-))
12. Good night, good night! Parting is such sweet sorrow, That I shall say good night till it be morrow. From Romeo and Juliet.
Goodness, what a long entry. Ophelia has probably weakened further and is now a hurricane since I started writing!
Traveling again tomorrow, but I’ll check in when I can.
I shall say good night till it be morrow! J
J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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