Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Tropical Storm Maria: September 14, Update A

If you liked the 360 deg photo thingy of Paris yesterday, Dan from Florida sent me some more. Here’s one from the flight deck of the Space Shuttle Discovery! You can click the mouse and scroll up and down too. Nice stuff! Thanks Dan.

Ok, onto the matter at hand. The high pressure shifted as expected and she’s chugging along at a lovely pace now.

Tropical Storm Maria is officially centered at 27.2N, 68.9W, heading NNE at 17mph. Winds are 65mph (central pressure is 999mb), making her a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph).

They readjusted her center to the west early this morning, after which she carried on moving NNW, before heading N, and now she’s on that NNE track. She’ll zip by Bermuda tomorrow afternoon. She is still a little messy, and it is tricky to see a clear center so I will go with the NHC and hurricane hunter plane center. I agree with the track forecast – she will carry on NNE, then NE continuing around that high.

The convection has improved a smidgen and circulation is rather strong in the lower half of the troposphere, with some circulation in the upper troposphere. However, wind shear will continue to increase so I don’t think she will be more than a very strong Tropical Storm (at the most she may be a very weak cat 1 storm) – this is also in agreement with the NHC, who do not have her getting to hurricane strength, although they have issued a hurricane watch for Bermuda. I think her center will pass west of the island, but as most of the convection is on the east side of the storm (because of wind shear), that’s where the thundery weather is lurking and so you might get some rather stormy conditions even if she’s not actually a hurricane.

In addition to Tropical Storm Maria, there’s another squiggly blob that just came off Africa. Alas, there’s a hiccup on the website so I can’t see what the convection is for this one but the circulation is very weak at the moment.  My, what a busy season this is… (hee hee, thanks to Heather from Florida for sending this link J).

Another busy day tomorrow, with travel and whatnot... I’ll check in as soon as I can. Good luck on Bermuda! Be safe.

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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