Thursday, October 27, 2011

Tropical Storm Rina and the Atlantic Blob: October 27, Update A

Today marks the one year anniversary of my return to the U.S. A.! At the end of this entry I will share a few words from the Queen to mark this event. But first, we have a storm and blob to chat about.

Tropical Storm Rina
She has been weakening at a nice stately pace all day, and is now officially a mid-sized Tropical Storm with winds of 60mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 996mb. Her center is officially at 20.5N, 87.2W, just a tad west of the Island of Cozumel and she is moving northward at 7mph.

I agree with the NHC, she is most definitely a Tropical Storm. There is now no vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere, just in the lower half of the troposphere. I think she’s weaker than the 60mph winds suggest, but not by much. She is almost over land and she is experiencing some strong wind shear, so she should continue to weaken. However parts of her are still over very warm water (28-29 deg C), including the Yucatan Strait, where the upper 100-125m are warmer than 26 deg C. This means she has the resources to have a lot of convection. You can see this in the IR satellite image:

There is quite a bit of the red/grey, so there is a lot of thundery weather over the northern Yucatan peninsula. I imagine they are getting a bit wet! Most of this convection is to the north/northeast of the center because of the wind shear. She is really more of a water event than a wind event. The observed winds in Cancun are from the east at 29mph – not even Tropical Storm wind speeds there.

Her forecast track is fascinating. J

It is not often that we see a storm take such a southward path, so I had to grab the image for posterity. She won’t really be a tropical storm for too much longer so that southward track is about as useful as an ice cold beer in a blizzard. I don’t think she will be a Tropical Storm in 24 hours because she will have been over land for a number of hours by then. The official NHC forecast is a little slower and has her weakening to a Depression on Saturday morning. As she is pushed to the south (by a low pressure front that is currently sweeping through the Texas/Louisiana region), she will blend in with a large area of convection that is covering the Caribbean, so that whole area will be on the cloudy/drizzly side of things. Umm… anyone going on a Caribbean cruise soon? Time to get your umbrellas out as you sip your umbrella drinks on the top deck!

Speaking of that large area of convection over the Caribbean – the NHC have marked this as an area they are watching with a very lowly 10% chance of developing. I’m not too bothered about this area… it has no vorticity (circulation) of its own to speak of.

Atlantic Blob:
But there is another area of convection marked on the NHC map as having a 10% chance of developing. This is out in the Atlantic, at around 20N, 40W (ish). This has some nice vorticity in the lower half of the troposphere. It might not develop because wind shear is a bit strong but I’ll just watch it now and again.

And now, some selected words from the Queen. These were sent to me by Tom in St. Thomas and Greg in Florida – two sources! They must be true. J

<Begin Message>

To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

In light of your immediate failure to financially manage yourselves we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up 'revocation' in the Oxford English Dictionary.) Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and territories (except Kansas , which she does not fancy). Your new Prime Minister, David Cameron, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections. Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated sometime next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

1. The letter 'U' will be reinstated in words such as 'colour,' 'favour,' 'labour' and 'neighbour.'
2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ''like' and 'you know' is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter 'u'' and the elimination of '-ize.’
5. You will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.
6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.
10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialogue in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one's ears removed with a cheese grater.
11. You will cease playing American football. There are only two kinds of proper football; one you call soccer, and rugby (dominated by the New Zealanders). Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).
12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America . Since only 2.1% of you are aware there is a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the Australians (World dominators) first to take the sting out of their deliveries.
15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

<End message>

You know she’s being generous allowing you to have vegetable peelers? In the UK we have to use lollipop sticks.
Tally ho and toodle pip until tomorrow!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


Anonymous said...

Hoorah for Tickle

Jyo said...

Ha... I know who that is! And thank you. :-)

water removal Longmont CO said...

Been covering this most recent one? Had a couple hit this year, but still this has been a fairly quiet year.