Saturday, September 22, 2012

Ex-Tropical Storm Nadine (maybe): September 22, Update A

The last time we checked up on Nadine, she was merrily on her way to Africa as a mere Tropical Low. The NHC downgraded her to a post-Tropical Storm, which I agree with because she had no convection and her circulation was really connected to a low pressure front that extended up towards the northeast. However, at the moment she looks like she’s acting out Scene 2 of Monty Python and the Holy Grail: “I’m not dead!”… “I’m getting better!” Her convection has improved… it looks like this is because of that front and also because she is over warm water again. It looks like she’s around 30N, 25W. The NHC now give her a 40% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm (again) in the next 2 days. However there are a couple of atmospheric factors working against her development. First, she is surrounded by the dry Saharan Air Layer, as you can see in this image:

Second, the wind shear is strong for a storm this size and looks like the shear will get a little stronger.  

I’ll be back if Nadine says “I think I’ll go for a walk.” Otherwise this is my last entry on Nadine but I’ll be back if there’s another blob out there… I’m still waiting for my Oscar (puns always intended!). ;-) In case you suffer from withdrawal symptoms in the interim, here’s the video of my ‘Our Town’ interview at the Dali Museum in St. Pete, Florida at the end of July: Thanks to the 125 or so who made it there for the live interview! For everyone else, the topic is Moi… don’t say I didn’t warn you! ;-).

Tally ho!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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