Thursday, September 27, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine: September 27, Update A

Nubilous Nadine is now a fairly strong Tropical Storm, with winds officially estimated at 65mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and a central pressure 993mb. She is at 28.6N, 33.6W, but is now going west at 7mph… (I hear life is peaceful there in the open air, where the skies are blue. In fact, that’s what we should do! ;-)).

She has certainly improved over the past 24 hours, as you can see in this visible satellite image:

It looks like there is more convection, but also the circulation is very good in the lower half of the troposphere and is improving in the upper troposphere. I agree with a wind speed of around 65-70mph. She’s not quite a hurricane though because of wind shear. The forecast track shows she’ll take a more northward turn tomorrow, which seems reasonable to me.

Because Nadine has been around for so long, Karen M. in Florida asked if Nadine had the greatest number of advisories. I am not sure how frequently the NHC issued advisories in times gone by, so I don’t know. However, she is definitely not yet the longest living storm in the Atlantic because she has ‘only’ been a Tropical Storm for about 16 days. In 1971, Hurricane Ginger was around as a named storm for just over 27 days (and a Hurricane for 20 of those 27!). Also longer than Nadine was Faith in 1966 (26 days),  Carrie (1957) which was a hurricane for 18 days, Inga (1969) which was a named system for 25 days, Kyle (2002) who was around for 22 days,  and a storm in 1926 that was around for 21 days. But the longest lasting storm we think was in 1899 and lasted for 28 days!! How tedious! You should read my blog from back then. ;-)

It’s splash-of-wine o’clock. J

Until tomorrow,

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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