Thursday, September 13, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine: September 12, Update A

Just about time for short update …

In the first advisory I looked at today the NHC said Nadine’s winds were 60mph. She now officially has winds of 70mph, central pressure 990mb. They say that “NADINE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT JUST BELOW THE RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION”. I think her intensification has been normal... as I said yesterday, she looked stronger (in the 60-65mph range) than the 40mph they had because of her circulation and convection. With winds of 70mph she’s a very strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). And now I think she’s a weak category 1 storm, with winds closer to 80mph (it is not necessary for her to have an eye to be a weak cat 1 storm - that usually occurs at the mid-intensity cat 1 range). Her circulation has improved throughout the troposphere, as has her convection as you can see in the latest satellite image:

There is a lot of water vapor around now and the water temperatures, at 29-30 deg C, are definitely warm enough to keep this convection going. But I don’t think she will get a chance to increase much beyond a strong cat 1 storm because she is about to head into some nice wind shear which should keep things in check.

I do agree with the NHC on their location and direction. She is around 20.7N, 50.1W, heading NW at 16mph. The track keeps her in the Atlantic, well to the east of Bermuda. I agree with this too. Although they have her curving north around 54W, I think she may be a little west of that before really heading north and northeast (maybe as far as 57-58W).

That’s all for now folks (said in a cartoon voice). ;-)

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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