Friday, September 07, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie and Hurricane Michael: September 7. Update B

A second update today because there are some very important things you should know. The most important is today’s Google Doodle which may, quite possibly, be their best one yet! Go to and scroll over the Star Trek themed Doodle with the sound on. Click on anything that lights up. It’s great. J Hours of fun and entertainment… ok, maybe not hours, but minutes at least. Happy 46th anniversary Star Trek!

Tropical Storm Leslie
The NHC agree now that she is finally on the move. Phew. Officially she’s at 27.4N, 62.2W heading N at 5mph. I still think she’s was east of this earlier and heading north, but is now at around 27.4N, 62.2W heading NNW/NW. I have the latest pressure data now and it’s clearing up nicely. It looks like she will head a little to the northwest (probably still within the current cone, but a bit closer to Bermuda). After heading northwest for a short time, she’ll start heading back to the north (still on the eastern side of the island) and then north east (after crossing the Bermuda area) – towards Michael in fact.

Winds are 65mph, central pressure is 982mb. I agree with the wind speed, she looks like a strong Tropical Storm to me. There is a chance she’ll get a little stronger again, because sea surface temperatures north of her are still around 28-29 deg C, but the good news is that it’s a fairly shallow layer of warm water. Another reason she’ll get stronger is because wind shear will decrease further. Also, at least for now, there is dry air to her west still – although that will also decrease as she moves north and closer to Michael. I think at the most she’ll get up to a weakish cat 1 storm, if that.

Hurricane Michael
The NHC still have his winds at 105mph (central pressure 970mb), which looks way off to me. There isn’t really even a clear eye anymore, which suggests to me that the winds are in the 80-90 mph range. Here is the latest infrared satellite image of Michael:

You can see that he’s definitely also being impacted by wind shear (and there’s no eye). He is officially at 31.4N, 41.3W, moving NW at 3mph.

That’s it for now. I actually mostly wanted to tell you all about the Google Doodle. J Time for a cup of tea and then vegetable chopping… (told you I was having a glamourous Hollywood life).

Slurp slurp (tea drinking sound effects),


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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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