Hurricane Gustav: August 26 Update A

As we expected since yesterday, he is now a hurricane. Also as expected,
they have shifted his forecast track near Cuba in a more westward
direction, changing his forecast track from a NW direction to WNW. The
forecast calls for this to happen tomorrow.

Intensity: He is a strong little fella with max. winds near 90 mph (cat 1
range: 74-95 mph). It is difficult to find an eye at the moment and an
exact center of circulation, but he is close to Haiti/DR at around 17.7N,
72W. It looks like the island of Hispaniola is hindering his development
because the north-east quadrant is not very well defined. Also, the
western side of the storm is not fully developed - looks like dry air is
being entrained (pulled in) on that side. So he may just hold steady as a
cat 1 as he checks out the island, although it won't take much to make him
into a cat 2 storm. Factors that will help in intensification include the
very warm sea surface temperatures (over 30 deg C), and warm 26 deg C
temperatures covering the upper 100m of the water column. Also, the wind
shear is fairly low.

As you know by now, the intensity depends on the track - more interaction
with land means weaker storm (unless your name is Fay)... so...

Track: He is currently moving NW at 9mph around the southern edge of a
large high pressure system over the Atlantic, and the track will depend on
how that moves over the next few days. At the moment he has a bit more
room to move NW-ish, but he will slow down and take a more westward
direction as he bumps up against that high. The westward turn is because
things move clockwise around high pressure systems in the northern
hemisphere.

Too many of you asked me what I *really* thought about this storm
yesterday, so I will come clean ... I do have a little niggle in my brain
(how did you know?). But as the cover of The Hitchikers Guide to the
Galaxy says: "DON'T PANIC". :)

My little niggle is that the western edge of the high pressure is
currently oscillating between the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba... which
means that the storm will head NW for now, turn WNW, head towards the
Yucatan Channel and then curve into the Gulf and around to the eastern
side of the Gulf of Mexico. This is not my favorite path for this storm to
take, because it allows for intensification.

BUT it is TOO SOON to say this is definitely what is going to happen and
the caveats are:
1. this is a few days into the future (alas, my time machine needs a new
power supply so I can't just go and have a peep)
2. the high pressure system will change in that time - it is rare for it
to stay the same for that long
3. this is a broad outline of a track - small deviations can change the
intensity because he'll be close to Cuba

Regarding point #2:
a) If the high expands westward, then he will contuinue into the Yucatan
b) If the high retreats eastward, then he will cross Cuba, cross the
Straits of Florida, and come up towards the US from that direction.

So...everything depends on that high pressure. I will get the latest
pressure fields in the middle of the day so I'll send out another update.
But we are at least another day or two away from making a better
assessment - there's not much I can do about that. Something you can all
watch out for is how close he gets to Cuba. That will give an indication
of where the high is lurking.

Let me know if you need any clarification.

Later... oh! yes... later 'noles. See... I don't pay too much attention to
college football, being British and all that. These are how I look at this
football rivalry: 'Later gators' just rhymes better, but the 'noles have a
much better/flattering color scheme... ;)

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Gustav: August 25 Update B

The NHC issued a special advisory at 2pm, upgrading TD 7 (officially
labeled at their 11am advisory) to TS Gustav. They will put out another
update in about 15 mins.

First my customary "I'm not sure what the NHC is doing" rant (you *knew*
that was on it's way, didn't you? :)). It was obviously a TS this morning,
and satellite winds were well over 40 knots, which is about 46 mph (1 knot
= 1.15 mph). Tropical Storm force winds range from 39-73 mph. But they
had to wait for information from a plane (which they just got) to confirm
that he is, indeed, a TS with maximum winds near 60mph now (996 mb)? I
know they are cautious, but this is a bit much... I'm having deja vu with
Fay here...

My best guess is that they didn't want the media to make as big a deal of
this 'by-passing' the TD stage and going straight to TS, which is what I
heard happened with Fay (although you all knew otherwise).

Winds of 60mph makes him a strong Tropical Storm - and there's a chance
he'll be a hurricane soon. Most of the convection is on the north and west
side, and has already started to impact Hispaniola. I fear there may be
more mudslides there. At least the TS warning watches in the DR and Haiti
have been upgraded to Hurricane warnings and watches. The two factors that
will help to keep his intensity low are: (a) the interaction with land,
and (b) he is still pulling in dry air from the south. The intensification
factors remains the same as in my earlier update. But for now I'm not sure
that's enough to stop him getting a bit stronger.

The center of a very clearly defined eye is at about 15.9N, 70.5W and he's
moving NW at 14 mph. The high pressure to his north has eroded a bit and
will continue to erode. So at some point he will make that NNW turn and
then N turn as he moves clockwise around the high. For now he will
continue to head NW, go over Haiti, then across to Cuba. this much is in
agreement with the center of the cone forecast track. After that, there is
a chance he will slow down or make a more WNW turn closer to Cuba -
depending on where the high is by the time he gets there. We are looking
at Weds, perhaps Thurs., for that.

Everyone in Florida and the Bahamas should be prepared anyway, but we'll
know more tomorrow (yes... I too can state the obvious :) ).

If you have any questions, you know I'm always happy to make up the
answers, so do drop me a line :)

Later gators,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blob: August 25 Update A

Well that was a lovely day off, wasn't it? :)

Yes, there is a Blob (technical term meaning... a er.. blob really...for
those who have recently joined us - copyright, me, 2006ish) in the
Caribbean and it is beginning to get into shape (can blobs get into shape?
:)). It's not yet officially a Tropical Depression, and a plane will go
into the system to investigate it today. But to me it looks like it's
already trying to form an eye, there is a lot of convection in the system,
and there is good circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (the
lowest section of our atmosphere), so I wouldn't be suprised if this is
already a Tropical Storm (the next one is Gustav). But that's not my call.

The 'eye' is located around 15.2N, 69.9W. Water temperatures beneath are
over 29 deg C, and warm 26 deg C waters extend down to 100m depth. There
is a low wind shear environment. All factors that will help it to develop.

It's moving in a NWish direction, which unfortunately takes it over even
warmer waters (and deeper warm waters). It's too soon to make a good
assessment of the future track - for the next day, the NW direction is
good. It's is on the southern edge of a high pressure system (systems move
clockwise around highs in the northern hemisphere) that currently extends
across the northern Caribbean and into the Yucatan peninsula. If this high
remains in place, then this system could head to Mexico. However, it is
too soon to tell if this high will remain strong. If it doesn't then the
track could be anywhere from the Bahamas to the northern/eastern Gulf.
With this later option, there is a chance the intensity will be impacted
as it crosses Cuba.

For those of you going on another Bermuda cruise... sigh... what am I
going to do with you? Didn't you get the 'Hurricane Season' memo? ;) It is
really too soon to say, and it isn't even a Tropical Storm yet. Just keep
the dramamine handy anyway... :)

More when there's something to say... (when has that ever stopped me though?)
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TD Fay: August 23 Update B

As I thought, she didn't go back over the Gulf today but stayed on a
WNW-NW path, and because she continued over land, she lost steam so they
downgraded her to a tropical depression at the 11pm advisory. She still
has some isolated areas of thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall, but
she's still heading inland and no longer looks like a storm. I guess you
guys in the Pensacola and Mobile area can put your wellies away - she
moved more northward and deteriorated before she got to you. She's
currently at 30.9N, 87.1W, about 30 miles NNE of Pensacola and 60 miles
ENE of Mobile.

She's been an agathokakological storm (did you think I only knew one big
word? ;) ). Agathokakological means composed of both good and evil.
Someone (who is trying to work it into his phd dissertation) sent me that
word after reading the entry with boustrophedon. If you want someone to
complain to, I'll happily give out his name for a *very* reasonable price
(protect the innocent? me? what gave you that idea?). ;)

She's agathokakological because she brought plenty of rain to the SE US,
which was much needed. There's been a bit of a water shortage in the SE
states recently (as some of you may have noticed). Tropical storms are
responsible for about 25% of the annual rain in Florida (and I think the
SE US). So the rain was a good thing. However, it was also a bad thing
because of the flooding, and as far as I know, she was directly or
indirectly responsible for 11 deaths in Florida and over 40 in the
Caribbean. I expect them to pull the name 'Fay' from the list because of
these tragedies.

This is my last update on this storm.
That's all for now folks.

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 23 Update A

Yes, she's *still* over Florida. She got to the Appalachicola region as
planned this morning, and has more-or-less stayed over land since then.
Her winds are 45 mph (central pressure 998mb), so she's a very weak
Tropical Storm (TS: 39-73 mph), but there is a lot of convective activity
associated with her on the north and east side of the storm - as you will
know if you live in northern/western Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. The
rain is coming from the Gulf of Mexico waters now, which are over 30 deg
C.

As a weak system it is not easy to locate the center from satellite or
radar images, but the NHC have it at 30.5N, 85.9W which seems about right
to me. It looks like she'll remain over land from here on out. Her motion
is W-NW at 7mph. I think track will be a little north of the forecast one
(but still in the cone), so she may not exit into the Gulf again - it
means she'll be moving more NW because the low that I mentioned a couple
of days ago is now northwest of her, and is beginning to create a path of
lower pressure for her to take. But the reason the forecast track is a
little to the south is because they think another region of high pressure
will develop to her north as she approaches Alabama, keeping her south. In
any case, it is all within that cone.

I think she wins the medal for most number of hits by one storm on any one
state - four so far.

Someone asked if it was possible for a cat 4 or 5 storm to slow down or
stall like TS Fay. It's very rare, but it can happen. The most notorious
example perhaps is Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which led to almost 9000
deaths in Honduras and Nicaragua alone from landslides that resulted from
the storm. He slowed down as it approached Honduras as a cat 5, and then
stalled for a few hours as a cat 4. By the time he really got moving
again, about 2 days later, he had downgraded to a Tropical Storm.

If there's any change in track or intensity I'll send out another update,
otherwise have a safe day - and for those of you in the
Pensacola-to-Mobile area, the rains a' comin, so don't forget to polish up
your wellington boots! :)

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 22 Update B

Dear Mother Nature,

I've been enjoying my tour of Florida. Having been here for almost five
days, I've seen most of the state - the only part left really is the Tampa
Bay area but I hear there isn't much of interest there so I'm probably not
going to bother.

The Keys were beautiful, you should visit them sometimes. SW Florida was
also something you would like; I particularly enjoyed seeing the swampy
side of Florida as I traveled around down there, on my way to Lake
Okeechobee. Not much to see there other than a big lake, so I decided not
to spend too much time but moved on to Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy
Space Center. Now that was fascinating! I spent the whole day there and
didn't get bored at all. I could have hung out there for longer, but as
you know, I'm on a tight schedule and I did so want to have a quick look
at the NE coast of Florida, which is very different from the southern part
of the state. The beaches on the Atlantic side are really wild - big big
waves - and I was having such a good time that I stayed there longer than
I intended. It was nice to see the ocean where I was born.

I spent today crossing the state back to the west side, dropping in on
Gainesville on my way - it's mostly a college town, and do you know if
it's still the biggest party school in the country? Don't worry, I only
stopped for a coffee.

I'm now heading west towards Appalachicola but instead of taking the
circuitous route over land, I took the direct path, cutting over the
north-eastern tip of the Gulf of Mexico. Using my GPS, I can tell you I'm
at about 29.7N, 84.2W. The waters here are a lovely warm 29 deg C, and
with little wind shear the trip is really quite pleasant. I'm close enough
to see Tallahasse but I'm not going to visit it properly or stop because I
want to get to Appalachicola by the morning, so I've picked up my pace a
bit and am now moving at 8mph. There's not too much to stop and see here
anyway, although I must say the warm water is rejuvinating after my
travels over land all day and I'm swirling with winds of 50 mph now.

Here's a map to show you the area my Tropical Storm force winds have
covered so far:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/024715.shtml?swath#contents

Over the weekend I intend to check out the rest of the north-west coast of
Florida - maybe take another dip or two into the Gulf on the way, and then
move on to visit the southern coasts of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana before I head inland. At least that's my plan for now, but it's
all subject to change - you know me! :)

I hope all is well at home.
Your loving daughter,
Fay

P.S. Wish you were here, the weather is lovely.

---------------------------------------------------------
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 22 Update A

The NHC forecast was good as she is now moving in a generally westward
direction. Ah well - maybe parts of Georgia is getting a bit of rain at
least? I know we are down here in St. Pete.

Contrary to what they said at the 5pm advisory, the 11pm discussion said:
FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

So overnight she picked up speed (and by that I mean she went from aound 0
to 6 mph in a number of hours - impressive huh?).

Official word is that her center is at 29.6N (slightly north of where she
was yesterday), 82.4W, putting her close to Gainesville, and 50 miles NE
of Cedar Key - so she stayed on target for that area from my update from a
few days ago, go figure. She's moving west-ish at 6mph.

Her overland path has resulted in a decrease in intensity (this time!),
which was as expected by everyone. Her winds are now 45 mph, making her a
very weak TS (winds: 39-73 mph). At the whopping pace she's moving at she
may not be a TS by the end of the day.

The track has her skirting the panhandle coastline in her continuing
boustrophedon-like tour of Florida, so there's room for a bit of
intensification, but not much (unless she moves south of that path and
entirely over warm water of course). (And I just thought I'd use *that*
word again because who knows when I'll get a chance to next and it's such
a great word - and it makes me chuckle!) :)

If there's any change I'll send out another update later, otherwise
tomorrow...
Bye for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 21 Update B

Since we last met, my computer caught fire. Bet you weren't expecting that
as an opening line. As I was writing the update this morning I was
wondering where that electrical burning smell was coming from and what
that crackling noise was... you guys are lucky I got that update out! The
machine was shut down right afterwards. I obviously work too hard ;)

Anyway, you're not here to read about burning computers... you are hear to
read about this storm thingy (technical term).

She's finally made a move! Hurray hurray! ... but I'm not convinced it's
the move that the NHC is telling me she made. She still has 60 mph winds
(993 mb central pressure) and is therefore a mid-to-strong TS, and
according to them she's located at 29.4N, 81.4W.

I think there was some sort of geo-referencing problem between the visible
satellite image and the infrared satellite image today, so when the NHC at
2pm said she was making landfall near Flagler Beach, the visible was still
clearly showing her center as being slightly offshore and heading NW! It
was bizzare (just one of those days). I don't think I've seen that offset
between the two satellite images before - they are now back in alignment.
I am going with the visible, which is showing her making landfall now,
just south of the St. Augustine area at around 29.6N, 81.2W. This is north
of the NHC center of the cone (and their landfall location).

The NHC is also telling me that she's moving W at 5 mph - she's moving,
but it looks like she's moving NW to me - I suppose they do have more
accurate information from the plane that went through today, but, well...
we will know in a few hours if it is going W or NW. I know I've been wrong
before... and I know they have. The one thing I can tell you is that we'll
know her track and intensity with 100% certainty by this time next week
<grin>.

What I do agree with is the slow motion of this storm. She's still
embedded in that high, so it will be slow... I'll be sending updates out
for days and days yet. Oh what fun for you all! ;)

Until later... toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 21 Update A

Tenacious Fay (not to be confused with Tenacious D, the satirical
heavy/hard/comedy rock band who should now be thanking me for this
unusual PR) is still plodding along just off the NE FL coastline. She
didn't move too much last night which is the bad news. But the good news
is that she didn't intensify either.

Track: The 11am advisory has her centered at 29.3N, 80.8W, 15 miles ENE
of Daytona Beach. From the satellite imagery it looks like she's
centered at about 29.5N, 80.6W - so a smidgen farther north and east,
and therefore farther offshore. But it's such a small difference and her
center is not very well defined anyway, so we could both be correct.The
NHC are still forecasting a WNW movement to begin soon and her re-entry
to Florida... but this is what they have been saying for over 12 hours
now and instead she's slowly drifting N or NNW and staying over water.
The official center of cone track still brings her across Florida,
exiting just south of the Big Bend area (and north of Cedar Key), and
then re-entering Florida along the panhandle coast. I'm now even less
certain of this than I was in my last update. I've just had a look at
the latest pressure maps and it looks like the weakness in the high is
in the Jacksonville area, so I think she'll continue to drift in that
general direction for a while longer. Beyond that it's high pressure
everywhere, so it's difficult to see where she will go. But all is not
lost. Yesterday I mentioned a low pressure system moving across the US
from the west. This is really her best bet for escaping from this high.
It is also moving slowly, and at the moment I think as we saw in an
earlier storm (or maybe earlier in Fay's life), the models are putting
too much emphasis on the location of this low, which is why they are
tracking west across Florida. I think she will continue NNW-ish along
the coast for a bit, then turn properly onto land somewhere in the St.
Augustine/Jax/Georgia border area, and then track NW across GA.

Intensity: Her winds are at 60mph still, and central pressure is holding
steady at 994 mb. The good news is that it looks like she's centered
over the only patch of cooler water along that coast, just west of the
Gulf Stream. Temperatures are 25-27 deg C. That and her proximity to
land is keeping her steady. Let's hope that continues. Regardless, the
NE FL beaches are probably getting a sustained pounding.

And from the central-east coast yesterday: Satellite Beach, near Patrick
AFB, was at about 22 inches of rain & the Indian River was up about 1
1/2 feet.

That's all for now folks,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 20 Update C

Hmm... things are not improving folks. Although earlier I didn't agree she
was over water, she most definitely is now: her location is at 28.9N,
80.5W - about 35 miles SE of Daytona Beach. One indication that she's over
water now, that was absent earlier, is that she has strengthened a bit -
60 mph winds so she's back to being a mid-to-strong storm (TS range: 39-73
mph) and her central pressure is 994 mb.

The FL east coast is a mess - people are being evacuated by boat because
of rising waters from surge and rain. And it's still raining. But I'm sure
you can all get that information and more from other sources. We are in a
state of emergency, aren't we?

She's stalled again, offshore this time - these stalling/very slow storms
really do mess things up as far as track goes. And intensity depends on
track. It's most annoying when they don't behave! Although the NHC track
has moved a little southward (exiting into the Gulf now, closer to but
still north of Cedar Key - eek!), I'm not as sure she will do that as I
was earlier today. It's still one of many possibilites.

Great googlimooglies... have I mentioned what a challenge these slow
storms are? The forecast calls for a slow WNW motion overnight, heading
back into Florida. I can see that happening, but I can also see her
heading NW along the coast, possibly making landfall north of the current
location, maybe in the St. Augustine area, then moving northwestwards into
Georgia. And she might be a cat 1 by the time she makes landfall.

To be honest, given the slowness/stalling nature of this storm, if I were
anywhere in that cone I'd be getting ready (umm...although coastal Georgia
and Jacksonville no longer appear to be in the cone). Unless she starts
turning WNW, I'm not ruling out the possibility of her heading into
Georgia as a hurricane at this point.

They will send in another plane later. I wouldn't be suprised if she does
become a hurricane. In addition to low wind shear, she's stuck over the
warm Florida Current/Gulf Stream waters. Although she's been partially
covering these waters for more than a day now, the water is still so warm
there (27-29 deg C) because it warm with depth. So anything she churns up
is warm as well.

I hope for some clarity by the morning - and also for her be moving WNW.
Actually I'll settle for her moving in any direction she can find a path
at this point, so she can move on from the east coast. I know I said days
ago that she's going to the north/central east FL coast, but I didn't mean
for her to get stuck there!

Stay safe out there,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 20 Update B

I suppose it does take a good day to check out everything at Kennedy
Space Center, and that's what Fay has been doing. She's more-or-less
stalled all day - same wind speed (50mph), same location... and rain and
more rain over the east coast. I got this note from Melbourne: "We have
had 17 inches of rain and still it is raining. Slowed a bit and the
water is receding from nearly flooding my office building (1950's two
story house)." ... umm... sorry to tell you this but the NHC says
isolated places could get up to 30 inches of rain. I hope your umbrellas
are still working!

Intensity: She's not raining as heavily as she was yesterday, but there
are pockets over land as she is pulling moisture from that pesky Florida
Current/Gulf Stream just off the east coast. Fortunately most of the
really heavy rain and thunderstorms are off-shore, over the warm waters
out there. Probably not the best day to go fishing off the north/central
east coast.

Track: She's been stuck in place because she is well and truly
surrounded by high pressure and cannot 'climb' over it. She's chugging
slowly northward at 2 mph right along the coast now - a toddler could
almost er... toddle... faster than she's moving. She is still close to
Cape Canaveral. The NHC have a central location of 28.8N, 80.5W, 30
miles NNE of Cape Canaveral. I would say it's a fraction south and west
of that from the satellite images - and therefore still barely on land -
but her center is quite broad so its a close call.

The problem with a stalled system is that the atmosphere around the
immediate vicinity changes, even if they are stuck, so once they start
to move things can be quite different. There is a low pressure moving in
from the west that will hopefully 'break through' the high pressure and
I agree with the NW-to-WNW turn later tonight/early tomorrow. She'll
move very slowly though.

The official track center of the cone keeps her on land all the way
after she's turned NW, but I am still thinking somewhere between Tampa
Bay and the Big Bend. How about somewhere just north or near Cedar Key
on the west coast of Florida? It's within the cone and I hear that's a
nice place to visit as well...

If things change tonight I'll send out another note, otherwise tomorrow.
Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 20 Update A

I know the folks on the central/northern east coast of Florida won't
agree (thanks for the photos), but this is a fascinating system.

Track: She's still just about over Florida and continues to move much
slower than expected at a grand 3mph in a northward direction. She's
located at around 28.6N, 80.6W - right over the Melbourne/Cape Canaveral
area which is where I expected her to head towards. As I said yesterday,
the reason she's so slow is because she is encountering a high pressure
system. I have just looked at the latest pressure fields... and there
is, indeed, high pressure on almost all sides of her. The only small
avenue of movement she can take based on these is actually NW and back
over to the west side of Florida. The official forecast still has her
moving offshore a bit. I'm not sure she will make it that far east. I
think she'll try and continue northwards along the coast for a while
longer, and then move NW - this is more-or-less in agreement with the
official track and well within the cone. The less she interacts with the
warm eastern waters, the lower her intensity. At the moment, the
weakness in this high is somewhere between Tampa Bay and the Big Bend.
If that is the direction she takes, it means she will exit over the Gulf
...unless something changes - and we know *that* never happens! She will
get weaker though as she moves NW over land... although at the moment
the center of the NHC cone keeps her over land as she moves NW and that
might be a tad too north. We'll see.

Intensity: She's currently got 50mph winds (995 mb), making her a
smallish Tropical Storm, although there is still quite considerable rain
to her north (and south) - it looks like Melbourne is getting a pretty
good car wash! They have reduced her forecast intensity and no longer
have her becoming a cat 1, even if she escapes into the Atlantic for a bit.

To sum up, TS Fay looks like she's taking a boustrophedon-like tour of
Florida: the Keys, the Everglades, Kennedy Space Center, possibly aiming
for Disney next ... or maybe Tallahassee to check out the Capitol...
(That's the first time I've ever used boustrophedon in a sentence by the
way - thank you for the opportunity :)).

I'll send out another update later.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 19 Update C correction...

... oops, I meant she's currently 30 miles SSW of Melbourne. East, West...
left, right... only minor details. I'm sure you all knew what I meant
anyway. :)

TS Fay: August 19 Update C

I must say I quite liked the 2-hourly updates from the NHC... although
they are going back to the usual 3 hourly now.

I agree with them, she has weakened quite a bit since this afternoon.
There is no convection to speak of on her southern side, and what's left
in the other quadrants is geatly decreased. Her winds are now 50 mph and
central pressure in 990mb, making her a mid-sized TS (TS winds: 39-73
mph).

She is currently at 27.7N, 80.7W and was moving NNE at 6mph and heading
towards Melbourne. However, in the past few hours she has been loitering,
which is turning out to be a good thing because it is helping to dissipate
this system (someone finally told her how she's supposed to behave over
land!). The NHC expect her to begin moving NNE at 5mph tonight - she's
about 30 miles SSE of Melbourne.

This stalling/v. slow motion is an indication there is high pressure in
her path - like a ball that's just encountered an uphill incline. So I
wonder if this is the high they were predicting would be in place on
Thursday that would result in the storm recurving. If it is, then it's
beginning it's impact a little ahead of schedule and the track may change.
I will get the latest pressure fields tomorrow and can assess things
better then.

Her reduction in intensity could also impact the intensity forecast. They
currently have her becoming a cat 1 on Weds evening, when she's over the
Atlantic, and the forecast calls for her to make landfall back in
northeastern Florida as a cat 1 on Thursday. Intensity is dependent on the
track as well of course.

Let's see what happens - in my book a mischieviously loitering/stalling
storm always complicates things. After all, Fay has acted so by the book
so far, right?

Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 19 Update B

Well she's an interesting one... probably not words you want to read when
a storm is traversing the state, but scientifically she's very
interesting.

Since making landfall, the convection has been decreasing - both in terms
of intensity and in terms of areal extent. There are still possibilities
of strong thunderstorms and tornadoes - especially on her eastern side as
people along the east coast already know. See postscript at the bottom!

However, despite the reduction in convection, she is now better organized
than any point in her life and actually looks like she's trying to develop
an eye - over land! (clearly she didn't read "The Dummies Guide on How to
be a Hurricane" - but apparently we all did ... otherwise we would have
seen this coming - the NHC and models also expected her to decrease as she
crossed land). The NHC put out an advisory at 1pm (an hour ahead of normal
schedule) and just issued another one at 3pm - both somewhat irregular.
Her wind speed is now 65 mph (TS winds: 39-73 mph), so she's a strong TS
and hurricane strength gusts have been observed. Her central pressure is
986 mb - still fairly low pressure.

She is primarily picking up moisture from the Florida Current/Gulf Stream
that runs along the eastern edge of Florida. I don't think Lake Okeechobee
is really big enough or deep enough to provide this sort of energy. We
know that storms that cross the Everglades don't decrease in intensity as
much as storms crossing other parts of Florida because of the water/swamp,
and she was in that area too. Atmospheric dynamics must also be at play in
this. There is very little wind shear and dry air is not a factor. But
again, as we saw earlier this year, there is something else at work here.

As for the track, I still don't see why they have her recurving back, but
there have been times before (very few of course ;)) when I've not seen
what the models forecast in the actual observations. The forecast models
say that the high will re-build westward which will force her to curve
back. This is quite possible, but I don't have any way of confirming it
yet.

My best guess from the observations of the pressure at the moment are that
she will actually exit Florida south of the current track (which has her
exiting at Cape Canaveral - the track has shifted south between the 1pm
and 3pm advisories), possibly in the Melbourne area (or even farther
south) and then head out to the Atlantic - all within the cone though.
Currently her center is at 27.1 N, 81.1 W - crossing the NW edge of Lake
Okeechobee.

Also, I would just be getting ready anyway to be on the safe side if you
live in Georgia and S. Carolina. If there's recurving to be done, we're
still looking at Thurs. for third landfall and things can change.
I agree with the re-intensification once she's over the Atlantic again.

As for Tampa Bay - winds picked up a bit. Not much rain over my head at
the moment, but other parts of the bay may have had some.

If you wish to look at the radar for yourself click here:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=TBW&loop=yes

This is the Tampa Bay NWS radar - long range loop, so it may take a few
seconds to load up. Or, you can go to:

http://radar.weather.gov/

Click on a dot on the map for the radar of choice and that will give you a
still image. On the left side, under short range images, there's a link
that says 'loop', click on that for a movie.

Remember, if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask and I'll make
something up ;)

Continue to stay safe and listen to the EOC/NWS/NHC folks. I'll send out
another update later.
J.

P.S. OH!! I got my first comment on the blog site! (I think it's the first
one)! (this calls for many exclamation marks!!!). For those of you who get
this via the list, the comment said they are getting pelted in Vero Beach
and the Melbourne Doppler picked up a Tornado approaching Jupiter Island
at 10a.

It will get worse over there as she gets closer... and now even more so if
she's getting stronger.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 19 Update A

O.k... so you knew I wasn't really going to sleep in, didn't you? Not with
a storm out there!

Fay made landfall around 5am ish on the SW FL coast at Cape Romano, just
south of Naples. She didn't intensify and is still a mid-to-strong TS with
winds of 60mph, even though her central pressure is 988mb. She does have a
lot of convective activity so this will be a rain event for Florida, and
closer to the center there looks like there are some very strong
thunderstorms and the occasional tornado.

Track: She made the NNE turn over night and is currently moving NNE at
9mph. The forecast has her crossing the state and exiting into the
Atlantic in the Cape Canavaral area, and then recurving back to make a
third Florida landfall (apparently she's really got it in for Florida).
I'll get the latest pressure maps at around 10.30 hopefully and will send
out an update some time later today, but at the moment I pretty much agree
with the crossing the state portion. I haven't yet seen why they have her
recurving back. In any case, she'll be much weaker by then.

Intensity: The NHC also has her remaining a TS across the entire state.
This I'm not so sure about. I know she's going to pass close to Lake
Okechobee, a large water body, but I'm not sure that will be enough to
sustain this intensity. Every hurricane that has crossed this state - even
those that cross quickly and take a shorter path - lose intensity and are
usually one or two categories less by the time the exit the other side.

Storm Surge: The forecast calls for water levels to be 3-5 feet above
normal in SW Florida in locations where the winds are blowing in-land. At
the moment Naples is showing about 1 foot above normal, and may rise a bit
more. They also say 2-4 feet above normal in the Keys - the observations
there show a max of about 1 foot and the water levels are now dropping.
There aren't any forecsts on water levels for the east coast yet, but
where there are obs on the east coast, water levels are not yet over 1
foot above normal. Those are the ones I expect to rise if at all.

For those of you who live in the Tampa Bay area and are not here and have
contacted me to ask what is going on... at the moment we have cloud cover.
I expect rain, possibly heavy rain, in a few hours as she moves NNE and
therefore a bit closer, but that's about it. I think we've had worse daily
thunderstorms. I'll add more later today (I don't expect to lose power at
all, but if I do... oh well, I've got ice cream that *must* be eaten :) ).
Pinellas lifted its mandatory evacuation orders for mobile home and zone A
residents, but schools are still closed.

Finally, yes I know there's another blob out there in the Atlantic. It's
trying to get strong but hasn't quite suceeded. If it does, the track
won't be too far removed from the one Fay took - at least as far as the
Caribbean is concerned. I won't mention this blob again unless he
develops. The next name will be Gustav. Phew... another fairly easy one to
spell.

Stay safe my peeps! :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update D

Last one of the day… ("thank goodness!" I hear you say)

Track: she is on target to make her second FL landfall in the Naples area
tomorrow morning and the NHC has adjusted their track a little southward
and eastward in line with this. She is moving northward at 9 mph. The
track after that is what I expected – moving over land and then exiting in
the central/north east Florida region. I will look at the latest pressure
fields in the morning and see is a change in that thinking or if there is
better indication of where she will exit – however she will be weaker by
then anyway.

Intensity: she is still a mid-to-strong TS with winds of 60 mph. If she is
going to intensify, she has only a bit more room over Florida Bay, but she
although she has spotted areas of very strong convection, overall she is
looking more ragged now and landfall as a Tropical Storm is quite a good
possibility.

Storm surge: those on the west side of the storm will not experience much
storm surge because the winds blow in a counter-clockwise direction around
a low-pressure system in the northern hemisphere – in fact, you will see a
reduction in the normal water levels. However, the areas on the east side
of the storm will get some storm surge. You can look at the water levels
from the tides online website – the information for this is in previous
entries:
(August 4)
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-eduardo-august-4-update.html
and
(July 22)
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/07/ts-cristobal-and-hurricane-dolly-july.html

Currently no-one in Florida has had a surge greater than 1 foot above
normal levels.

That's all for today. The real fun here begins tomorrow… I think I'll
sleep in ;)

Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update C

She's crossed the Keys, and the NHC center of circulation does now look
like the correct one as the radars and real-time information from the
stations down there showed a dip in the winds in the lower Keys, near
Key West. So she's currently over Florida Bay and this is her last
chance to build up in strength and it looks like she's going to try.
Although the convection and organization has improved near and just
north-west of her center of circulation which is over very warm waters
of 31 deg C or higher, the official wind speed is kept to 60 mph (TS:
39-73 mph) despite a drop in her central pressure to 998mb.

Dry air is still being entrained into the system but I'm not sure it's
enough and she might be a low-level be a cat 1 on (second) landfall or
at least a strong TS. The NHC at the 5pm advisory have downgraded her
forecast intensity at landfall to a TS. Within 24 hours of landfall, I
find that the official track is usually quite good, so it looks like
Fort Myers or possibly south will be where she's heading (Naples
perhaps?). They still have her on a NNW track , moving at 12 mph (so
she's also slowed a bit) and overnight I'm looking for an official
Northward and then NNE-ward turn into Florida - that's the thing we want
to look out for.

That's it for now, I'll send out another update later after the 11pm
advisory I think. In this county (Pinellas) the EOC has ordered schools
to close tomorrow, and mandatory evacuations of mobile homes and zone A
residents beginning at 6am tomorrow. This means that the USF St. Pete
campus will be closed. A day off... what shall I do? :)

Despite all my thoughts here, the EOC, NWS and NHC are the people with
the most information at their fingertips so please do not ignore their
advice.

Until later amigos,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update B

Track: The high continued to erode eastward and is now in the Atlantic, which means Fay can turn northward (I think she may already have done) and then northeastward. I'm more-or-less staying with my previous track: so upper upper Keys (!), over the central axis/land of Florida for a bit, and then out somewhere on the eastern side - central/northern. If the high continues to erode, she may just clip south-eastern Florida and head out into the Atlantic from there, which would be the best scenario possible. I see in the 11am advisory that her track is fractionally east than earlier today. I expect them to continue scooching it in that direction. They have her center now over the Straits at 23.6N, 81.5W moving NNW at 13 mph. I'm really not convinced this is correct, although I can see the circulation they are looking at as well. I think it might be somewhere closer to 23.8 N, 81W - but she's disorganized enough for there to be some doubt. Since yesterday (or possibly earlier, I can't remember now...it's all a blur...no, not from too much alcohol in case you were wondering! ;) ) they've been forecasting her to slow down in forward motion, I'm still waiting for that and it hasn't materialized. I don't see it happening, especially with the high eroding eastward and having cleared a path for her.

Intensity: Her winds are still 60 mph (central pressure 1003 mb), and she'll most likely be a cat 1 as she crosses the Straits. It depends also on how fast she moves across. Not much else to say that I haven't already said.

TS force winds are 39-73 mph (in case you somehow missed that in almost every other update I've sent out :) ). Real-time data from the Keys shows: Sombrero Key is recording winds of 21 knots = 24.15 mph, Molasses Reef has winds of 28 knots = 32.3 mph, Sand Key has winds of 33 knots = 37.95 mph.

As she gets closer, if you want to look at data from marine coastal and off-shore stations, there's a map on the Florida Coastal Ocean Observing System (FLCOOS) page: www.marine.usf.edu/flcoos/data.php. Click on the balloon of interest, and there should be a link in there to the data itself. (don't click the purple balloons yet because the links aren't in place for those). There are also some good links beneath the map.

Apparently everyone and their pet cat, dog and goldfish is on the National Hurricane Center website at the moment... everyone except for me as I can't get on from high volume. Or maybe they've finally decided to cut me off ;). TJ, thanks for sending me their latest update... and the previous update "track image" link was sent to me by CK and SH, so thanks there too.

We're seeing the outer cloud bands as north as Tampa Bay now. South and east of us I can see the weather is worse.

It's a 3 or 4 update sort of day...so more later.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 18 Update A

Ever had one of those lovely weekends when you get away from it all and
then come back and ease back into the swing of things? No? Me neither... ;)

I've been a little (just a little though) concerned for a few days now
that the center of circulation is not quite where the NHC says - this
has been such a weak system that it has been difficult to pinpoint the
exact center and they know that too, despite planes going into the
system to investigate. Part of the problem has been that there is
circulation at different levels of the atmosphere, and they don't all
overlap exactly as you see in a classic image of a hurricane. This is
often the case with weak storms and is part of the disorganization in
the system. Another part of the problem is that the heaviest convection
is to the east of the center (and now to the north as well). She's just
exiting Cuba now and already interacting with the Straits and therefore
gaining strength. As she gets stronger her center will emerge. At the
moment it really looks east of the track they have her on and if that's
the case. either they had it in the wrong location, or she's taking a
more northward track than they forecast - both are likely in my opinion.
Her official center is somewhere around 23.3N, 81.2W. I think she's
perhaps closer to 23.3N, 80.9W. As I expected, the computer models that
were heading north and west have shifted south and east.

Track: The last advisory had her on a NNW heading at 12 mph. The high
pressure system that had her moving westward for most of the past few
days began eroding yesterday, so she began to make that NW turn... and
from what I see it has eroded further which allows her to move a little
more northward now. I will get the latest pressure fields in a couple of
hours, so I'll see how much it's really eroded, but she is moving
clockwise around that high pressure. Currently the western edge of that
high extends over the southern tip of Florida - the next fields will
show me if it's holding steady there or eroding even farther eastwards.
So from the pressure fields at the moment, it looks like landfall in the
upper Keys and then up over central Florida, exiting somewhere on the
eastern side - possibly northeastern Florida. We should have a better
idea today (obviously). I trust everyone is getting ready or is ready? I
know that folks here are making plans.

Actually, using the best technology at my fingertips, the track she'll
take is here: http://xkcd.com/453/

Intensity: She'll be crossing the warm waters in the Straits of Florida
- over 31 deg C. The warm waters of 26 deg C extend down to about 75-80
m, which is deep, but not as deep as it was south of Cuba. Wind shear
is low, and remains low ahead of her. So I can see her intensifying
today, and agree with the NHC on hurricane strength on landfall. As of
the 8am advisory, her max. wind speed was 60 mph which makes her a
mid-to-strong Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph).

More after the 11am advisory... now I'd better go and get some water... ;)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Fay: August 17 Update A

Remind me not to go somewhere with limited internet access when there's a
storm heading towards me! (and you of course :) ).

TS Fay has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph (Tropical Storm range:
39-73mph) and her appearance in the satellite images is still ragged, so
she's not very strong at all yet. Her convection pretty much fell apart
earlier today, but is slowly reorganizing again. However, the convection
is still mostly to her south and east and the west is a bit drier.
Fortunately the interaction she did have with Cuba won out over the very
warm waters she has been traveling over and has kept her intensity low.

Although she's a wee tropical storm at the moment, she is a large system
and it looks like the southern tip of Florida and the Bahamas are seeing
the outer bands – in some places with heavy rain and thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, it looks like the northern part of Florida is experiencing the
low pressure front that I mentioned (was it only yesterday?) coming across
from the north-west. Given that the leading edge of the front is in
northern Florida, it looks like there's a strong possibility that this
storm will curve into the western part of Florida, but where? I know the
models are all over the place, but those that show the panhandle or west I
think may be too strongly following the low to the north, so they will
perhaps curve east further south by tomorrow. I'll have a better idea in
the morning.

The atmospheric pressure fields do show that the high pressure to her
north weakening, and so I would also agree with the NHC that she will make
a turn to the NW within the next few hours taking her over Cuba in the
next 24 hours. This means that she'll be interacting with land further,
and it should reduce her intensity further – in fact if the turn occurs
soon, she might take a pretty big hit crossing Cuba. There is room for
intensification over the Straits of Florida where the water temperatures
are over 30 deg C, but the warm waters are not as deep as they are south
of Cuba.

Her center is somewhere around 21N, 80.2 W and at the 5pm advisory she was
moving in a WNW direction at 15mph. Central pressure is 1003 mb.
That's all for now my friends, as I'm out of computer contact for the rest
of the day. But, like Fay, I'm heading towards Florida and will have
proper access to everything tomorrow. Remember, everyone should be
prepared anyway and heed your National Weather Service/NHC/ Emergency
Management folks.

Until tomorrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update B

Her center is located at 19.3N, 75.8 W and she's continuing to move
westward at 14 mph. For now she's still a very weak Tropical Storm with
winds of 45 mph and central pressure of 1005mb (TS range: 39-73 mph). The
strongest activity in her system is in the southeast quadrant at the
moment – the other quadrants looks fairly weak in terms of convection as
well. There is good circulation in lower half of the troposphere, and
there are signs of circulation developing (v. slowly) in the upper
troposphere.

Now, about her westward track. This does keep her mostly over water
instead of land and over the warmest waters I mentioned earlier. Combined
with weak wind shear, she has room to get stronger as she moves between
Cuba and Jamaica. Not only is the sea surface water warmer than 30 deg C
there, but the 26 deg C water extends down over 100m.

The high pressure is holding steady, and so my guess is she's not going to
deviate much from her westward track for another day at least, which keeps
her south and west of the current forecast track, but it also means she
has time to get stronger.

Let's see how she does overnight. Gotta run now kids…

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Fay: August 16 Update A

Well the good news is that she's still not a very big system with winds of
45 mph. The not-so groovy news is that she survived Hispaniola and is
still not a bad looking little thing.

The NHC at 5am could not find her exact center of circulation, despite a
plane going in - which is an indication that she was a little ragged this
morning. THe 8am advisory says its at 18.8N, 72.8W. I can't tell for sure,
but there's a strong area of convection centered somewhere nearere 18N,
73.8W which is right over warm waters. Regardless, her intensity will
depend on how long she is over the waters around Cuba/Jamaica, which are
the warmest in the Caribbean at over 30 deg C. The longer she interacts
with land (Cuba), the better things will be.

Alas, I still don't have a high enough resolution pressure field to be
able to make a good call on the track. She is currently moving westward at
14 mph, following the southern edge of a high pressure system that extends
from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico. The question is when
will this erode enough to allow her to curve NW and then NE - that' why
the cone includes Florida as well. The farther west she goes, the more
likely the curve will result in the storm heading into the Gulf of course.

Interestingly, the high is supposed to erode because a low pressure system
is moving eastwards from the western US, and as I write this, I am in New
Mexico and currently sitting directly under this low pressure! This gives
you an inkling of the distances, complications, and other factors involved
in forecasting these storms - forecasts need to be accurate of features
that are thousands of miles away.

No, I have not 'run away' and didn't tell you :) - I'll be back in Florida
before she crosses Cuba. I can only imagine what the media response is to
this though.

Here are the answers to my literary quiz yesterday:
Brave New World (Huxley) - an excellent book.
All's Well That End's Well (Shakespeare) - an excellent play.

and as a bonus, someone sent me this as well:
Very Well Developed (Hefner)

Although I've not read much Hefner myself, I hear that his magazines are
bought for the excellent journalism and interesting articles. :)

I'll send out another update later.
Have fun,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Fay: August 15 Update B

As of the 5pm advisory, the blobette officially became a Tropical Storm!
They finally took the plunge. Phew. It's a brave new world.

Her center is at 18.5N, 69.4W over the Dominican Republic. As she's not
very well developed now (go figure), it's a little tricky for me to see
where her center is - the NHC data is from a plane. I will go with it,
although it does look a little east and north of that location, in which
case she is just now coming ashore onto the DR.

She's got winds of about 40 mph, so she's barely a TS and her interaction
with the mountainous island will knock some of the wind out of her (pun
alert :) ). Convection is strong, which is what we saw yesterday as well,
making her more of a rain event than a wind event. The only problem with
this are the possibility of landslides.

Her intensity obviously is now going to be dictated by how long she is
over land so she may be very ragged by the time she's crossed the DR &
Haiti. I don't have fine enough pressure fields to be able to comment on
her track in a few days - it could indeed head towards Florida. But she
may not be much to talk of by then, especially if she also has to deal
with Cuba.

I heard from St. Thomas - all's well. The heaviest stormy/rainy weather
passed just to their south. They are still not too happy with the NHC
comminications yesterday... but all's well that end's well.

I have intermittent internet access over the weekend, but I'll try and
check in once a day.

Quiz of the day: how many literary references did I use in this update? :)

Toodle pip!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette: August 15 Update A

This "no_tropical_cyclone_not_even_a_Tropical_Depression" system is
beating the heck out of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico at the moment
with some strong convection, and is heading for Hispaniola. The convection
is massive - usually the sort of cloud tops seen with a decent hurricane,
but there is no eye. I read that the reason why they didn't call it a TD
yesterday was because although the plane was showing TD/TS level winds, it
couldn't find an area of closed circulation at the surface... and the
sparse data they have now also doesn't show closed circulation,apparently.
*That* is what they are waiting to find. From where I am sitting, it looks
closed to me, and not only that, but it looks like it's now in the entire
lower troposphere and extending upwards... but I don't have the very fine
information that they have at their fingertips. Satellite winds now show
some areas with tropical storm winds (TS range:39-73 mph).

For those of you who know this jargon: there's good low level convergence
and high level divergence now as well. I will have to explain it to
everyone else at a later date... (apologies).

It's so odd... usually the NHC errs on the side of caution, but in this
case it's like there's been a switch in policy or something. Anyway, when
you emerge from this on St. Thomas, send me a note and let me know how you
fared this night.

Now, the track is, as I thought yesterday looks like it will be a little
farther south than they had... which means it will interact a bit more
directly with Haiti/DR and although PR is having very little effect on
this blobette, one can hope that the mountains ahead of the system will do
something. There is also a region of slightly higher windshear on the
western side of Hispaniola, and maybe that will also help.

I'll try and send another update out later today.
Gotta run...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette: August 14 Update B

Hmmm... well for those of you who have been waiting all day for the NHC
to wake up and issue a special tropical disturbance statement of some
sort, your wait is over. They finally issued something at 5pm EST today,
apparently carefully ignoring all other clues, but waiting to get data
from a plane that was sent in to investigate. This is what they say:

"DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH."

I am having a difficult time reconciling the satellite information of
convective activity and winds that I've seen throughout the day with
this "has not developed into a Tropical Depression" thing.

QuickSCAT - a satellite-based instrument that measures wind data - is
showing winds of over 20 knots east of the leeward islands. That's winds
greater than 23 mph. A tropical depression is defined by winds of 23-38
mph.

Satellite imagery showed a nice storm structure and the convection
earlier was very very strong. It's only just within the last two hours
or so that the convection has decreased (maybe that's when the plane was
in the system?), but there is still some good formation and outflow
(I'll get into the outflow jargon some other day).

The circulation, which is good, is still confined to the lower half of
the troposphere, which is a sign that its not a strong system, but I
would have said a TD at the very least and I think everyone who saw the
satellite images thought it looked more like a Tropical Storm earlier
today. Gosh, I think I'm so surprised that I can't even bring my usual
level of scathing sarcasm to the proceedings here! Yes, record the date
folks... I might actually be teetering on the edge of being speechless!

Anyway, for those in the VIs, if it's any consolation whatsoever, i know
it's on your doorstep but it's not a very strong storm now and
convection is decreasing at the moment - cloud tops have warmed. It is
unlikely to become a hurricane. From your messages I know you aren't
very happy bunnys at the moment because you've had next to no advice
from the NHC today... I have no idea what is going on there!

Of course, with impeccable timing I may not have Internet access
tomorrow... so...er... it's over to the NHC. Let's see. Maybe I'll find
some way. I'll be back when I can. (If anything changes later tonight
I'll send out another note though).

Have a good/safe night!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette: August 14 Update A

I know I kept quiet on this for a couple of days because there wasn't
much to report. But it looks like the Blobette that was heading towards
the Leeward Islands is making a break for it... in the last three hours
alone her appearance has improved dramatically and it looks like she's
by-passed the TD stage and may actually be a Tropical Storm. Convection
has increased and is better defined. The NHC are most likely going to
send a plane into the system later today to get better data but I would
not be surprised to hear we have something more substantial than a mere
'invest' (blobette).

So, given the lack of official information at the moment, I estimate her
center is somewhere near 18N, 61W and she's moving in a W-NW direction.
This takes her center just to the north of the Islands for now, although
as I said a couple of days ago, it looks like they will be getting rain
- I hear that there's been light drizzle on St. Thomas today... but get
ready for a tad bit more. Computer models are in pretty good agreement
and show the track skimming the northern edge of all the islands -
Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic/Haiti, Cuba, and taking the system
through the Bahamas before curving away from the US and out into the
Atlantic. This is pretty close to my estimate based on the pressure
fields - there's a possibility that the system will be a little south of
these tracks, which means greater interaction with land. So the track
will really help to determine how strong this system gets.

Sea surface water temperatures are over 28 deg C and water temperatures
of over 26 deg C extend down to about 75 m depth. So there is plenty of
nice warm water for this blobette, should she wish to improve her looks
further. Wind shear has decreased and remains low in her path - which is
partly why she's improved. There is still plenty of dry dusty air
surrounding the system. We'll see how much that helps to inhibit her
development.

That's it for now... very possibly another update later today... if you
all behave ;)
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette and the Blob: August 12 Update A

Hello everyone... some of you have asked about the blobs in the Atlantic
so here we go.

The Blobette: This is the mass of convection closest to the Caribbean
that's been struggling to get going for the past few days. It finally
started to pick up steam yesterday (a good pun is its own reword ;)).
Circulation is in the lower parts of the troposphere only at the moment,
but there is definite circulation and it is centered somewhere around
16-17N, 50W. The NHC may send a plane in today if they think they need
more accurate information. It looks close to being a Tropical Depression
(winds of 23-38 mph) - the convection is certainly strong enough and has
been for over 12 hours now.

It is moving W-NW at 10-15 mph as it follows the southern edge of a high
pressure system in the Atlantic (remember, clockwise movement around a
high in the northern hemisphere). At the moment the pressure fields
suggest that it will stay out in the Atlantic instead of entering the
Caribbean, but the VIs may get some rain from this system in a couple of
days. I got a note from St. Thomas yesterday saying that the rain would be
welcome to cool things down.

Water temperatures are around 27 deg C, but there is a bit of wind shear
and a lot of dry dusty air around which has been hindering its
development.

The Blob: This is the one south-west of the Cape Verde islands, located at
around 11N, 30W. It also has some low level circulation and a broader,
less organized, area of convection. I won't mention this one again until
it looks like its getting its act together.

Neither of these are officially even Tropical Depressions yet.

Later gators,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Edouard: August 5 Update A

As expected, he made landfall a short time ago along the upper Texas
coast, north of Galveston and close to the LA border/Sabine Pass. Winds
are 65 mph, and central pressure is 997mb, so he's a decent sized TS
(39-73 mph). He's now moving inland in a W-NW direction at 14 mph and is
located at 29.6N, 94.2W. There's a lot of rain and thunderstorm activity
associated with this system - more of a rain event than a wind event I
think. That's because he picked up a lot of moisture from the very warm
waters just off that TX/LA coast - warmer than 31 deg C.

This is my last entry in Edouard. Another good little storm - took some of
the heat without being too large. :)

--------------------
"Satellite Imagery Primer - Part Deux"

Yesterday I covered how you can look at a storm close up. Today, we'll
look at the bigger picture.

1. Go to the National Hurricane Center website satellite link page:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

2. Scroll down to the 3rd section that contains two columns: "Atlantic
Views" and "Pacific Views". Again, these data are from the GOES system of
satellites.

3. Under this heading you will see sub-headings: "Atlantic Wide View",
"Western Atlantic" etc. which gives you more of a basin-wide sort of view.

4. Under each one is a list of 4 different types of images. As for the
close-up imagery, if you want the latest still snapshot of any of the
images, click on 'Image'. For a movie, click on 'Loop' (this may take a
bit more time to load onto your machine). At the bottom of each image or
movie is a date and time stamp. The time is in UTC (Universal Time
Coordinate/ Coordinate Universal Time) and is about 4 hours ahead of EST
in the summer. So for example, 17:45 UTC is actually 13:45 Eastern
Standard Time.

For example, look under Atlantic Wide View. The three most
useful images:
- "Visible": This is a visible image in black and white.
- "Infrared": This is an infrared image and give you the temperature of
the cloud tops and hence an indication of how much convection (rain,
thunder etc) is actually going on. The information on the color scheme is
in yesterday's entry.
- "Water vapor": This shows you where the atmosphere has dry
air (brown) or whether there is already some water vapor (not brown).

5. Click on any of the loops (if you can). Once it has loaded, across
the top you will see a number of little buttons. Click the one that says
'LatLon' and it will draw a lat/long grid over the image. Click on
'TropFcstPts' and it will add the latest Forecast Track. Have a play -
click the buttons.

If you can't remember the website for this satellite page, go to the home
page of the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) and there's a
link in the left column (under "Get Storm Info") - "Satellite". That will
take you to the page you need.

So there we have it - satellite imagery at your fingertips. Now when you
read future entries, you won't be thinking 'what the heck is she talking
about'. O.k., so maybe you still will... but hopefully this helped a wee
bit.

That's all until the next one, which, should it develop, will be called
'Fay' (gosh, I hope I don't mess up the spelling of that one!).

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Edouard: August 4 Update B

Things I've learned (or learnt if you prefer UK English) since my last
update:

1. Some names are tricky to spell (why didn't anyone tell me this
before?!?). Apparently I had the 'o' in the wrong place. I was so close,
but it's not at the end of the name (Eduardo) it's in the middle:
Edouard! Really, don't you think names should be intuitive to spell...
just like mine? (that's why you'll never come across a Hurricane Jyotika).

2. "Weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 50% of
the time and not get fired." ;)

Edouard is now at 28.3N, 91W, so he's moving along at 8mph in a WNW-ish
direction. Coastal LA is getting the outer rainbands now. The latest NHC
forecast track has shifted a tad bit south, but at the moment he looks
to me as though he'll be heading a little north with landfall closer to
the TX/LA border - it's still within the cone though. The tricky part in
assessing this earlier today was that there was a high pressure in the
way, that he is moving around (remember clockwise around a high pressure
system) and it extended over the TX coast, but it looks like it's
shifted northwards to me. We'll know with 100% certainty within 24 hours
- because er... by then he'll have made landfall.

Winds are still listed as being at 45 mph, but again, I'm not sure about
this because he looks like he's improved in features and his circulation
has definitely picked up. I think there's a plane in the system now and
the 5pm (EST) update will have more up-to-date information. Central
pressure is about 1001 mb. I expect him to have stronger winds than that
in the next advisory.

Forecast water levels are 2-4 feet above normal. The observations so far
show that along the MS and LA coastlines the water levels have already
reached a peak of about 1 foot above normal and are beginning to drop
now. Texas observing stations are still increasing but have not yet
reached 1 foot above normal.

--------------------------
Now for my "Satellite Imagery Primer - Part One". If I lose you, send me
an email and I'll try and muddy the waters further (oh, and all puns are
always intended ;) ).

You can see close-up images of a storm, or sometimes even a system with
potential (the NHC and everyone else calls them 'Invests', I prefer to
call them 'Blobs' and 'Blobettes' because it's just, well, more fun :) ) :

1. Go to the National Hurricane Center website satellite link page:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

2. Scroll down to the 2nd major heading: "GOES Floater Imagery - 30
minute updates". GOES are the satellites that the images come from: the
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites.

3. Under this heading you will see sub-headings: "Atlantic Floater 1",
"Atlantic Floater 2" etc. And under those will be a sub-sub-heading with
the name of the storm, or the number of the 'Invest', or it will say
'Not Active'.

4. Under each one is a list of 5 different types of images. If you want
the latest still snapshot of any of the images, click on 'Image'. For a
movie (which is what I usually look at), click on 'Loop' (this may take
a bit more time to load onto your machine though). At the bottom of each
image or movie is a date and time stamp. The time is in UTC (Universal
Time Coordinate/ Coordinate Universal Time) and is about 4 hours ahead
of EST in the summer. So for example, 17:45 UTC is actually 13:45
Eastern Standard Time.

For example, look under Edouard - Atlantic Floater 2. The three most
useful images:
- "Visible": This is a visible image in black and white. If you want to
see the center of circulation, this is the image to look at. The other
images will just cloud the issue :).
- "Infrared": This is an infrared image and give you the temperature of
the cloud tops and hence an indication of how much convection (rain,
thunder etc) is actually going on. White means warm cloud tops, which
means they are not very high in the atmosphere and therefore there is
not a lot of rain (no rain actually). Blue are cooler, but indicate
thick cloud cover, with possible drizzly type of rain. Yellow indicates
even cooler clouds tops, so these are higher in the atmosphere, usually
associated with a lovely downpour (I like the rain). Reds indicate
really cold tops, which are associated with "Thunderbolt and lightening,
very, very frightening" (Bohemian Rhapsody, Queen). A quick re-cap about
why cold cloud tops indicate more stormy weather is in the July 9 Update
C entry:
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/07/hurricane-bertha-july-9-update-c.html.

- "Water vapor": This shows you if the surrounding atmosphere has dry
air (brown) or whether there is already some water vapor (not brown).
This one is often used on tv reports (from what I've seen).

5. Click on any of the loops (if you can). Once it has loaded, across
the top you will see a number of little buttons. Click the one that says
'LatLon' and it will draw a lat/long grid over the image. Click on
'TropFcstPts' and it will add the latest Forecast Track. I won't go
through them all, but have a play - click the buttons. It's quite a lot
of fun really. Let me know if you have any questions on any of them. On
the bottom you will see controls to slow the movie down, move through it
frame-by-frame, play it backwards (Fun Fun - yes, it doesn't take much
to amuse me), stop it etc.

That's part one.
--------------------------
If something of interest happens later today I'll send out another note.
Otherwise, tomorrow amigos...
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Eduardo: August 4 Update A

Our little TS Eduardo did not intensify overnight (he actually
deteriorated a bit before pulling himself together this morning) and now
has winds of 45mph (TS: 39-73mph) and a central pressure of 1002 mb, but
he did pick up his pace and is moving westward at 8mph now. His center
is somewhere around 28.2N, 90.6W and he's expected to turn WNW today
with landfall still somewhere around Galveston, TX tomorrow. Landfall
will be within the cone, but it's not clear exactly where which is why
everyone in that area should be prepared.

The circulation has improved since yesterday, and he looks like he's
desperately trying to form areas of deep convection. They tell me that
there is vertical wind shear that is keeping his intensity down, and
there is a bit but it's about 5 -10 knots (5.75-11.5 mph) at the most,
and if you look at satellite images of him there clouds have formed on
all sides of the circulation so I'm not as convinced that's the reason.
But, for this storm, I will go with the NHC information because planes
have been in this system since yesterday and have really good
observations on this storm (which is where they got the data to realize
he was a TS in the first place). He is heading towards a region of
slightly higher shear, but still remains over water temperatures greater
than 29 deg C.

Currently, water levels along the coast are at the most 1 foot above
normal (in areas around the mouth of the Mississippi River). You can
look for yourselves on www.tidesonline.com. The directions are in one of
my previous entries (July 22):
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/07/ts-cristobal-and-hurricane-dolly-july.html.
The blue line is the predicted normal water level, the red are the
actual observations, and the green line on the plots gives you the
difference between the expected value and the observations - so the
'above normal' water level. Because a storm is a low pressure system,
in the northern hemisphere the winds move around it in a
counter-clockwise direction. So water levels on the north/eastern side
of the storm will be above normal because the winds are pushing water
towards the shore, but water levels on the western side will be below
normal. You can see this at the moment. If you click on stations around
the Mississippi (e.g. Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS) you'll see they have
higher than normal values. But if you click on stations in Texas (e.g.
Galveston Bay), you'll see that the water level was below predicted, but
is now beginning to rise as the storm moves closer to the TX coast.

If you tune in next time, I'm going to begin a two-part overview on
satellite images and where you can see them and what they mean. Towards
the end of Dolly, I saw one of my wonderful readers trying to see what I
was writing about...but in the wrong satellite images. Oops. This
morning I got another email from someone regarding satellite images, so
clearly it's time to shed some light on them. I guess the last time I
wrote about satellite images was a few years ago. Double oops. I'm such
a slacker...you guys should have sacked me ages ago! ;)

More later today...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Eduardo: August 3 Update A

Aaah... I hope you all had a nice little break there? Got caught up, maybe
read something interesting and well-written? (not like this ;) ) But now
I'm back and so is our next little storm. Alas, the holiday is over.

As you have all probably heard by now, Tropical Storm Eduardo came into
being early this evening in the northern Gulf, just south of the
Mississippi/Alabama coastline. He began developing yesterday when a low
pressure system moved off the northern Florida coast and into the Gulf
where water temperatures are over 29 deg C. There was (and still is) only
low level circulation, but today the circulation shifted farther from land
so he's had a chance to develop.

He is currently at 28.1N, 88.2W, just south of the Mississippi River
Delta, and has winds of 50 mph (TS wind range: 39-73mph) so he's still a
weak storm. It looks like he has adopted a relaxed summertime southern
lifestyle because he's moving westward at a grand 4mph.

I agree with the NHC forecast; I don't see too much that will prevent him
from developing a bit more in the short-term. There is very little wind
shear, water temperatures are over 29 deg C and warm waters (over 26 deg
C) extend down to at least 50m. His very slow forward movement may
actually be one thing that will work against him because he is slowly
cooling the waters he is hovering over - we saw this with Bertha (although
I think we saw pretty much every scenario with Bertha!).

There is a lot of convection with this system but most of the heavy
rainfall is offshore - this is more of a rainmaker than a windmaker at the
moment. I had a quick look at the water levels along the coast
(www.tidesonline.com) and there is very little change at the moment.

The official NHC track has him making landfall in the Galveston/Houston
area on Tuesday morning as a strong TS. I don't have the best information
at the moment to comment too much on his track - I'll get my little paws
on that in the morning. But I would say that everyone in the cone should
be getting ready.

More tomorrow.

Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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