Hurricane Alex: June 30, Update A

As expected, he's a cat 1 hurricane, with winds of about 85-90 mph (cat 1: 74-95mph), central pressure 962mb, located somewhere around 24.5N, 96.2W. He's approaching the Mexican coastline (with outer bands over southern Texas) and will make landfall overnight. I don't think he'll become a cat 2, as it looks like he is beginning to weaken as he interacts with land - the convective activity is decreasing in the outer bands. He is tracking north of the current official forecast (and barely within the cone), which takes him closer to Texas, but I think it's still going to be a Mexico landfall. Hopefully the impact will be minimal!

I know, I said today's entry would be long and boring. Surprise! It's short and boring instead. ;-) That's because I fell asleep on the job! But he's moving along more-or-less as forecast since yesterday, so nothing to add really.

Until tomorrow amigos,
J.

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Alex: June 29, Update A

Just a quick note... Tropical Storm Alex is currently centered somewhere around 21.7N, 91.9W with winds near 70mph, making him a strong Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 984mb, moving NNW at 8mph. He'll become a hurricane soon (cat 1: 74-95mph). He slowed down yesterday, which always makes things (track and intensity forecasting) tricky - I'll go into why at a later date. It still looks like a Mexico landfall, with a small chance of southern Texas. I was wrong about the southern track, alas, but correct about the slower increase in intensity. The circulation is pretty good throughout the troposphere, which means that he will intensify further. Bother.

His circulation is now strong again throughout the troposphere (it weakened a little yesterday), and there is low wind shear. Because he took a more northerly track, he is over warm and slightly deeper warm water. All conditions point to intensification.

I don't have time to look at all the data or write more today. Tomorrow I'll have oodles of time though, so be prepared for a long and boring entry! ;-)

Toodle pip,
J.

p.s. congratulations to C.H. (who helps me maintain the web blog) and his wife on the birth of his daughter yesterday! :-)

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Alex: June 27, Update A

I made the mistake of watching some US tv news about tropical storms. Oh dear. "Tropical Storm Alex MAY be weakening over land"? OF COURSE it's weakening! Sigh. Why do they have to be so unecessarily alarmist? Doesn't everyone have enough to worry about? (rhetorical questions, no need to reply! :-)). Time for a calming cup of tea!

TS Alex made landfall yesterday in Belize, between 7 and 8pm (CDT) with winds near 65mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). A fairly strong Tropical Storm. He is now moving across the Yucatan Peninsula in a WNW direction at 10mph, and will re-emerge into the south-western Gulf later today. Currently he is centered at around 18.4N, 89.9W over Mexico, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40mph... which means that he may not actually be Tropical Storm anymore as the demarkation is 39mph. I expect he will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression in the next update, as also previously forecast by the NHC. Despite the low wind speed, he still has very good circulation (vorticity) in the entire troposphere which is a little troublesome.

Now, the question is what will happen when he emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The track takes him WNW towards Mexico. I agree with a Mexico landfall, but maybe not so far north as the current center of cone of uncertainty suggests. There's a chance he'll stay south (also within the cone). But that's a few days away, so things could change.

And the intensity in the Gulf? Here we have a battle between the ocean and atmosphere. How fun! :-) Atmospheric conditions are primed for strengthening of a storm (weak wind shear, strong circulation/vorticity). The forecast makes him a Tropical Storm again overnight tonight (1AM Monday), and a Hurricane tomorrow night (by 1AM Tuesday), with the possibility of a Cat 2 or 3 by Thursday - a fairly rapid intensification. However, ocean conditions are not really primed for a big storm... although the surface water temperature is warm at 30 deg C, the warm water is very shallow - waters warmer than 26.5 deg C don't extend much below 25 - 50m (because it is going over the shallow Bay of Campeche shelf - like the West Florida Shelf). My assessment is that it will intensify back to a Tropical Storm and there is a possibility that it will become a hurricane, but maybe not as rapidly as the current forecast suggests. I think it unlikely that he will be a Cat 3 before he makes landfall.

I'll try and check in later, once he's over water. I don't have much time and won't be in front of a computer for most of Monday/Tuesday (because life gets in the way at the most inconvenient moments! ;-)). Luckily Alex is pretty well behaved, and unless you are in Mexico or southern Texas, no need to overly worry about this one.

Must run! Ciao for now,
J.

p.s. Oil & Storms:

There are a number places out there with information about oil spill and tropical storms that you should check out if you haven't already (e.g. NOAA's fact sheet:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf). Thanks to all who sent in websites - you guys are great! :-) I'll continue to answer questions because I was asked for my wonderfully humble, scientific and humourous opinion (after people had read what's out there). (Yes, I'm still *quite* modest). ;-)

Also, thanks to J.D. (and someone else, whose email I've misplaced - sorry!) for sending me 'information' on the "Worst Case Scenario": http://xkcd.com/748/ ;-). I'm sure the movie will be out next summer!


Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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TD1: June 26, Update A

Formerly known as the Caribbean Blob, this is now officially a weak Tropical Depression which means it has closed circulation and winds of under 39 mph. It is moving WNW at 9mph, with 1004mb central pressure. It's just north of Honduras, centered at 16.7N, 84.4W, and is, indeed, heading for the Yucatan Peninsula where it will make landfall tonight. The NHC think it will reach Tropical Storm strength before then, and retain that intensity as it crosses the landmass and into the Gulf. I have no doubt it will reach Tropical Storm strength (Alex), but I don't think it will survive the crossing so easily. It may even become a weak hurricane before getting to the Yucatan because it is over warm water (26.5 deg C in the upper 80-100m), but on the other hand, it is interacting with the central American landmass to the south, which may inhibit that development.

That's all I have time for on this for now! I'll check in once it's got to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Toodle pip!
J.

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Caribbean Blob: June 25 Update A

I'm a tad busy the next few days, so this is not a good time for a blob to even think about developing! Huh. I'll have a word with Mother Nature and see if I can suspend activity for a week or two. ;-)

I (and others) have been watching this blob over the last few days as it slowly moved across the Caribbean, dumping a bit of rain on assorted islands. It is currently centered somewhere around 16N, 80W, between the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua and Jamaica.

There has been a lot of convection with this system for many days. This is to be expected. The sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are over 30 deg C (although the eastern Caribbean has dropped by a whopping 1 deg C over the last few days because the blob has cooled things down a little). In addition to warm surface waters, it is now over some very deep warm water -the deepest there is actually. Temperatures are above 26.5 deg C in the upper 125-150m of the water column. If this had been a better developed system, this is the location it would have bloomed into a cat 5! But fortunately for us all, the poor little thing is still struggling to develop ... and in the meantime, it continues to rain and remove some of the heat from the ocean. Yay!

Since the day before yesterday, the lowest levels of the troposphere** (woo hoo...science alert - see below :-)) have begun to show some signs of improved circulation. It's still quite disorganized though. There is some wind shear. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) have been saying since yesterday that the shear will decrease by tomorrow so the system has a high chance of developing. This is possible, but I'm not 100% convinced the shear drop will be enough.

**Troposphere: this is the name of the lowest level of our atmosphere. It extends up to about 8km height in the polar regions, and 15-16 km in parts of the tropics. In the troposphere, the higher up you go, the colder the temperature gets (e.g. tops of mountains). The next layer up is called the 'Stratosphere'... you might have heard of it because, in the polar regions, that's where the Ozone Hole likes to hang out (and sip pina coladas ;-)). In the stratosphere, the higher up you go, the warmer the temperature gets! Isn't that interesting? The demarkation between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause.

I'll keep an eye on this blob and write when I can! I'll definitely send another note out on this, once I've looked at possible tracks. My *guess* at the moment is that it'll head W-NW... hopefully to the Yucatan and not into the Gulf!

-----------------
On another somewhat related note, I've been asked a number of storm/oil questions and just haven't had time to write about them (anyone got a spare day or two lying around that I could borrow? ;-)). I had grand plans to do that in a couple of weeks, but maybe I'll just address a question here and there.

Question: "If there is a storm in the Gulf, will it rain oil on us?"

Answer: I would say no. The rain is from WATER being evaporated from the ocean. Heat energy is used to separate the water molecules (technically called the latent heat of vaporization), which allows the water to go from being a liquid to being a gas (water vapor). The oil molecules will not react the same way ... if I'm wrong and some expert out there knows definitively that they will be part of that process, please let me know and I'll pass along a correction. (And if I'm right, please let me know because then my head can get bigger ;-) ).

The water vapor is carried up into the atmosphere, where the temperature drops (because it gets colder the higher up you get) and the water molecules recombine (condense) to form clouds and then liquid water again (rain). When they recombine, the heat energy that was used to separate them is released into the atmosphere - this is a source of energy into the storm system.

However, if you live in an area where you get sea spray from storms and there is oil in the water, then you will most likely get oil droplets as well, because that is carried 'mechanically' by the wind and doesn't involve breaking up of molecules or other such sneaky things!
----------------------

Gosh... what a lot of science for a Friday! That should carry you through the weekend. ;-)

More sooner or later!
J.

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob: June 15 Update A

If the season has to be busy, can it please be full of blobs like this? :-) It created a small ruckus and is now just happily twirling away, minding it's own business.

It doesn't have much convection, just some low level circulation. It's centered at about 13N, 45W, heading WNW at 10-15 mph. The water underneath is still warm water (28-29 deg C), but the wind shear continues to pick up and there is still dry air around. I had an email about African Dust today - there is, indeed, a Sarahan Air Layer blowing off Africa, but it's not really in the vicinity of this little blob. To look at African Dust, click here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time (from U. Wisconsin - CIMSS).

I'll keep an eye on it, but I suspect this will be my last entry on this blob. Hurray!! One down... er... 20 something to go? (ha ha ha... no, surely not!)

Until the next time...
(Go England! ;-) )
Toodle pip!

J.

p.s. if you have any questions, let me know!

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob: June 14 Update A

"Bit of a busy day today, I'm afraid. Distressingly little time for sloth or idleness." (Oscar Wilde) :-)

So, fortunately for me, there's not much to say about this Atlantic blob ... other than it looks a little worse for wear today than it did yesterday. Even though it's over warm waters (in the 28-29 deg C range), the circulation and convection has definitely decreased this evening. This might be because the wind shear started to pick up (a fraction) and there continues to be dry air all around. From satellite images, it looks like it is heading in a north-westward direction and the center is somewhere near 11N, 42W.

However, it is still trying to develop (pesky little blob!) and I will continue to keep an eye on it. I'll be back with an update tomorrow.

Have a nice day! (as they say in America ;-) ).
Ciao for now,
J.

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Atlantic Blob: June 13 Update A

"Here we go, here we go, here we go"... a classic football (soccer) chant in honour of the World Cup (topical AND tropical - aren't you impressed? ;-)).

So, the first real blob (technical term for a blob of clouds and rainfall and thundery sort of weather ;-)) of the season is out there. Not a terribly big surprise as we are a couple of weeks into the Hurricane Season. I've heard and read a number of comparisons to the start of the 2005 season, which also had rather warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in May and June. The first Tropical Storm of that year, Arlene, ended on June 13... so Mother Nature is already having an easy year by comparison (if you ignore the oil spill, volcanic eruptions, assorted earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and unusually cold winter).

This blob is a sprawling mass of clouds and convection (rainfall), covering about 1000 miles from north to south, and also from east to west. The center, I'm estimating, is somewhere around 7-8N, 36-37W, which puts it quite far south. Although the sea surface temperature is a balmy 30-plus deg C (temperatures of 26.5 deg C and higher are needed to maintain a tropical storm) and wind shear is light, there is dry air to the west and north which will help to keep it in check for a bit. However there is a decent amount of circulation with this system, hinting that it may develop further.

The good news is that I've been watching this blob all day because apparently I have nothing better to do on my weekends. I suppose I could watch the football (yawn - oops, did I say that out loud? ;-)). Anyway, both the circulation and thunderstorm activity have diminished a little since this morning. Not enough to ignore it (yet), but it gives us all an extra day or two to remember what a hurricane looks like so we can recognize one when we see it. The other thing to note about this blob is that it is quite far south (south of 10N), and therefore there's a good possibility that it will stay on a southern track... too soon to say.

I know a lot of people are concerned about the impact of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, given that little oil spill fiasco. I'll try and write an entry on oil and storms soon(ish). But something else that also happened earlier this year was the devastating earthquake in Haiti. I believe they are still a long way from recovering from that, and unfortunately it's on an island that gets hit by a storm almost every year. My fingers are crossed (thus making it difficult for me to type of course ;-)) for any big storms to stay well away from those areas (staying out in the Atlantic is fine with me)!

I'll check in with y'all tomorrow.
Toodle pip! ;-)
J.

P.S. Thanks to everyone who have sent me notes for the last few entries... I've had a busy few weeks and am a little behind on replying, but will get around to them soon!
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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June 1: Start of the 2010 Hurricane Season

Hello my friends!

Well, here we are at the Official Start of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season... in which there will be a hundred and six tropical storms, seventy hurricanes, and fifty-four major hurricanes. ;-)

Having spoken with some of you and with some people who don't read this blog (I, too, was surprised such people exist!! ;-) ) it seems there's a fair bit of anxiety about this season already... and we're only on DAY 1! The predictions are, indeed, for an active season:

Klotzbach/Gray (Colorado State University, prediction date April 7): 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major

NOAA (prediction date May 27): 14-23 storms, 8-14 hurricanes, 3-7 major

But 2003 was an active season with 16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major (major hurricanes are cat 3 or higher), with most of the real activity staying in the Atlantic. On the other hand, 1992 was a very quiet year with only 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major... quiet for anyone not in the path of Hurricane Andrew that is. It only takes one, regardless of how busy the seasonal forecast indicates. But of course be prepared as usual. In case you don't know what you need, here's my checklist: ice cream, wine, sunscreen lotion, more ice cream, water, a good book, wine, video camera and batteries for cool footage you can sell to tv later... ;-).

If you've been reading this for years, you can ignore the next bit if you like. But if you are reading my wonderful writing for the first time ... a brief background on these updates:

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that more-or-less fits those three words). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometimes four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.

4. I have a British sense of humoUr... I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, Douglas Adams etc

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. ;-) I can cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person, so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh), please please ask me about it.

6. I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some, but I'll just be writing about those that I think have a chance of developing.

8. If you are reading this on the web blog and would like to sign up to get email updates instead go here...
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane.

9. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your in-boxes, and would prefer to get it via the web go here... http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to
remove you).

10. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!

11. I have a British sense of humoUr and spell things in a British way (sometimes) ... so I moved to Britain last year and no longer live in sunny Florida. I'll do my best to write entries when there's a storm out there, but occasionally that "big ball of wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey stuff" (Dr. Who) gets in the way.

The first three storm names will be Alex, Bonnie, and Colin. I'll be back in touch when Alex shows up.

That's it for now folks. :-)
J.

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tropical Storm Agatha: May 31, 2010 - a potential Pacific Interloper!

Beep beep beep, the sirens have gone off: we have a Pacific interloper in the Caribbean! I don't think this one counts for Atlantic storms (yet), but I'll mention it anyway.

A system looks like it might be re-developing just off the coast of Belize, in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Agatha was the first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, lasted for about 12 hours, hit Guatamala yesterday(ish) and resulted in numerous deaths (from heavy rains etc).

The Guatamalans have had a busy week as far as natural disasters. The Pacaya Volcano erupted on May 27 covering the capital, Guatamala City, with something like 8cm of ash, resulting in some loss of life, and shutting down airspace. Also, whilst I'm rambling about rumblings, less than a day later the Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador also erupted, spewing out rocks and ash and stuff (that's technical jargon for er... stuff). Both have calmed down a bit now (I think). Back to tropical storms (these other pesky natural disasters just keep getting in the way!).

So, Tropical Storm Agatha - although there is some circulation, she doesn't look too healthy because the whole system is still interacting with the central American landmass. But there is considerable convection developing over the portion of the system that is over the rather warm (30 deg C and higher) Caribbean waters.

Storms that cross from one basin to another are called... (drum-roll please)... "crossover storms" (are you surprised? ;-)). There have been about 8 or 9 that have sneaked into the Atlantic from the Eastern Pacific, and 12 or so from the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific (the most recent in 2008). Those numbers aren't definite because many of them were before we had good observations. If a storm retains it's structure as it crosses, it keeps its name. But if it falls apart during the crossing and then re-develops in the other basin, it gets re-named to the next storm in the new basin.

I won't mention Agatha again unless she decides she wants to completely cross-over and become Alex (first name for the Atlantic system). :-)

I'll send out a proper 'welcome to the Atlantic Hurricane Season' message tomorrow. It might be entertaining. It might not. ;-)

Hasta Manana!
J.

------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and planning to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Volcanic Ash Special

Hello my friends :-)

Don't Panic! (phew, got that Douglas Adams quote in early this year). No tropical storms. Yet. ;-)

But, alas, I had to come out of hibernation a little early. Too many other things are going on. Yawwwnnn. Cuppa tea anyone?

For a start, Iceland decided they would like to have a larger role in global events. They've already played their "Financial melt-down" card and handed it over to Greece. So now we have the "Volcanic eruption/glacial meltdown" card AND, to really show us what's what, they picked a volcano with a name that Prince would be proud of. The-Volcano-In-Iceland, formerly known as Eyjafjallajokull, began rumbling a few months ago, resulting in a minor eruption in March. So minor in fact that most of the planet payed absolutely no attention. Deciding it didn't like being ignored, it had another go on April 14 and by April 15 a large ash plume was heading towards the rest of Europe, causing some minor (!) problems here and there (or so I heard). It was idyllic being stuck in the UK during that time - contrail-free blue(ish) skies, warm weather, birds tweeting, cows mooing, flowers blooming, and the slight coating of some metallic and bitter tasting stuff on my skin didn't do me any long term damage (well, none that anyone could detect anyway ;-)) .

So, just in case you are silly enough to want to fly across the Atlantic any time in the next 2 years (says she, who flew across about 5 days ago), I thought you'd like to know where to look for forecasts and what the volcano is doing.

But first the REALLY important stuff... "How to look good and impress your friends: A phonetic guide to Eyjafjallajokull":
From Iceland's embassy in Washington, via NPR, this is how you say Eyjafjallajokull: "AY-yah-fyah-lah-YOH-kuul."
(http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/04/iceland_volcano_eyjafjallajoku.html). There's a little audio clip on there too, so you can hear someone saying it (warning: you'll be saying it with a proper Icelandic accent if you listen to it too much). With 3 weeks of practice, I can now pronounce it correctly after 1.5 glasses of wine. Of course no-one else knows what I'm saying, they are just impressed I have the approximate number of syllables. ;-)

For volcanic ash forecasting the world is divided into regions with a Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (or Center ;-); VAAC) per region. Each VAAC is responsible for providing the official global forecast for ash from any misbehaving volcano in it's region (see website below). The London VAAC covers Iceland and is based in the UK Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/index.html. This website has the latest Volcanic Ash advisory information. Click on "London VAA: Issued graphics" text(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/vaacuk_vag.html). There's a looong list of numbers (PFXD...) next to a date and time stamp (the time is GMT), click on the top one which is the latest forecast, and you'll see four maps. Each map is a forecast for a different time. The top left map is the first in the series and has the year, the month (05), the date/time (Z stands for Zulu time, which is GMT). The red line shows ash location in the lower levels of the atmosphere (SFC-FL200), the green dotted line (FL200/FL350) is ash location at cruising altitude for many flights. FL stands for Flight Level in this case, not Florida :-), so FL350 is a cruising altitude of 35,000 ft.

For a ROUGH idea of concentration charts (I say rough because these are not an official product in the same sense as the plots above), go back to the VAAC homepage (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/index.html) and click on "London VAAC NWP Volcanic Ash Concentration Charts: Latest charts" (there's a disclaimer at the top). Scroll down, you'll see the time and date stamp in bold above each chart for different flight levels. Each chart that has a red and possibly black area indicates ash concentration for that time and level. Black areas are bad: these are where ash exceeds the plane engine manufacturer tolerence level.

To read about what the volcano is doing, I go to the Icelandic Met Office: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884. They update this at least daily. An eruption plume of 4-5km or higher (13,000 - 16, 400 ft) indicates that it's still quite active.

So there we have it for this "Special". If you have any questions about this, let me know and as with tropical storms, I'll make up an answer for you or find someone who knows about these things. ;-)

Stay tuned... if I have time I'll be doing another "special" before the season really begins on June 1. And then I'll have a nap. ;-)

Toodle Pip!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding volcanic eruptions in Iceland - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision (o.k.... so this disclaimer I cut and paste from the old one, so if you are in Iceland this bit might apply), please heed your local emergency management announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. Hee hee.
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November 30: Final Day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Here we are again my friends, at the culmination of another Atlantic
Hurricane season. And you are still reading this blog?!? Goodness me, you
must be bored. Well of course you are bored! For most people living in
known hurricane-prone areas it was a relatively quiet season. For example,
the Florida peninsula (where I used to live) did not get hit by a
hurricane this year, which I believe is the fourth year in a row
(Klotzbach/Gray report). On the other hand, the British Isles (where I now
live), that well-known area in the hurricane zone (!!!), got hit by a
number of storms in some form or another. Although no-one really noticed
over here as that is our normal weather. And I still can't believe the
first storm to be named formed the VERY DAY I left Florida! I'll be having
words with Mother Nature about this season when she's sobered up and
stopped laughing her head off. Huh. ;-)

To sum up the 2009 season: we had 9 named storms, of which 3 were
hurricanes, 2 major (cat 3 or higher). The average is 11 named storms, 6
hurricanes, 3 major. A below-average year methinks. The impacts from El
Nino really kicked in around August/September...which strangely enough is
about when the storms really kicked in too. Hmmm. El Nino did play a role,
but there were other factors (in my humble, but not reticent, opinion),
such as cooler sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic.

I think the NHC did a good job overall, although they were a 'little' slow
(!) in some places. But they do so like to write their updates in CAPITAL
letters, which must take oodles of time! They are proposing "improvements"
to the NHC Public Advisory because "Customer feedback suggests that there
is a need for a more user-friendly format...". You can see and comment on
the proposed changes if you wish by going to this website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/feedback_tcp.shtml.

Interestingly, this year I have not seen any initial forecasts for the
2010 season. NOAA says their first seasonal outlook will be released in
May 2010. Last year they already had their initial estimates out for the
2009 season at this point - 14-18 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Oops.
Maybe the silence is prudent. There is a lot more to this clever delay
than meets the casual eye, but this entry is long enough so that can wait
for a rainy day (next year). If someone throws out numbers tomorrow, I'll
send out a quick update.

As I wrap up another year of my high-quality, witty, intelligent, FREE
entertainment for you ;-), I'd like to give my annual thanks to those who
made this possible. My fabulous technical support - the computing guys at
CMS/USF in Florida for the listserve, and C.H. in Texas for maintaining
the blog and making it look pretty! You guys are awesome. :-) This
'international' effort kinda worked!! Thanks also to all of you who have
been reading this drivel, and for sending me comments -they kept me amused
and out of trouble (well, I suppose 'trouble' is such a relative concept
isn't it? ;-)). Finally, thanks to my friends - old & new - on both sides
of the Atlantic, family, and colleagues for their valiant attempts to keep
me sane. Ha ha... keep trying ;-)

Having got used to that Florida climate, I find it rather cold over here.
I'm sitting next to a warm radiator as I type this, so I think it's time
for me to hibernate now. Until the 1st of June, 2010 (unless something
wakes me up early)... Happy holidays and wishing you all a safe and
wonderful New Year! Laugh & be merry!

That's all for this decade folks.

TOODLE PIP ;-)
J.

Blogs archived at: jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

----
Disclaimer: yeah... due to a computing glitch here I ended up having fun
with these this year. I'll be better behaved next year... Maybe ;-)
-----

Extratropical Storm Ida: November 10 Update A

Ida made landfall earlier today as a weak Tropical Storm with winds of
about 50 mph, and very little convection. She then merged with that front,
and is now an extratropical system. This is my last entry on this system.

In response to a question I had asking what extratropical systems were, I
cut and paste this from an entry I wrote over two year ago. Boy was I
clever back then! What happened? (no need to answer that) ;-)

---------------
A quick overview of storm systems- What is the difference between an
extratropical storm, a tropical storm, and a subtropical storm?

An Extratropical Storm: These usually form in the extratropics (quelle
suprise!) and have cold air at their core. A cold air mass meets a warm
air mass, and as the warm air rises (because it is lighter than the cold
air), it releases potential energy that results in these systems. Because
warm air rises, a low pressure is formed which is why these are also
called low pressure systems. They are usually associated with fronts which
are depicted on weather maps as lines of blue triangles (for a cold front)
or red semi-circles (for a warm front). Because it's the collision of air
masses, these systems can occur over land or water, and occur frequently
in the winter in the US as snowstorms/blizzards or Nor'easters.

A Tropical Storm: These usually form in the tropics (aren't we good at
naming things?) and have warm air at their core. The energy source for
these differ from extratropical storms. These storms form over water only
and the energy source is latent heat. Warm water evaporates into the air.
As the rising warm moisture-laden air in the center reaches colder
altitudes in the atmosphere, the water vapor condenses to form clouds and
latent heat is released. The heaviest rains and winds are in a band close
to the center. No fronts are associated with these storms (although
'waves' in the atmosphere are) - which makes it difficult to determine too
far ahead of time when a storm will develop. A tropical storm is when the
winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less
than that, it is a tropical depression.

A Subtropical Storm: These usually contain some characteristics of both
extratropical and tropical systems. For example, imagine an extratropical
storm moving over warmer water. Now the storm begins to get some energy
from latent heat as well, and the cold air in the center (near the
surface) is replaced by warm air, so the storm core can change from cold
to warm. The heaviest rains and winds are not near the center. Like a
tropical system, a subtropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34
knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a
subtropical depression.

It's only since 2002 that subtropical storms were given names from the
hurricane name list - which would partly account for why we have had more
named storms in the past few years.
---------------------------

That's all for now folks!
Toodle pip until the next time.

J.

Updates archived at: jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: You all know this already. My views, heed those who know, yada
yada yada...

TS Ida: November 9 Update A

Ida behaved pretty much as I expected. Good girl! After my entry yesterday
she was officially upgraded to a cat 2, and today as she crossed the Gulf
she rapidly deteriorated to a strong Tropical Storm, with winds currently
at 70mph. She will become a weaker TS before landfall overnight tonight.
Tomorrow she'll be 'absorbed' by the front after landfall, which is really
when she'll become extratropical. Someone asked about extratropical
storms. I'll write about those tomorrow. She's at about 28.6N, 88.5W,
moving N at a speedy 18mph. Central pressure 991mb & rising. I know you'll
be surprised, but I finally agree with the NHC for the remainder of the
forecast for this system! They finally caught up. ;-)

It's wet & windy in a number of states, but the other thing to look out
for is storm surge for those along the coast. You can go to
tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov for realtime water level information. They have
listed some relevant places along the left, and others can be accessed by
the 'state map' tab, also on the left near the bottom. Currently St. Pete,
FL, is 1.5 ft above normal; Pensacola, FL, is 2ft above; Dauphin Island &
Mobile State Docks, AL, are 2ft above; Gulfport Harbor, MS, is 3ft above;
Grand Isle, LA, is 2ft and rising, and New Canal Station, LA, is 2.5ft
above.

Someone also asked me what sort of weather to expect in the Tampa region.
Here's a website you can check out for weather information:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw (also
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/Graphicast.php). Thanks to my friend in the
NWS for providing those.

Fortunately it looks like everyone who contacted me regarding travel plans
in/out & around the Gulf will, indeed, be ok... So have fun!! Here it's a
balmy 4 deg C (39 F) outside. Gloves & hat time I think.

Toodles till tomorrow!
J.

Updates archived at jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: Please pay heed to your local Emergency Managers, the NWS, and
the NHC as they have the most up-to-date information. I only write what
I'm thinking and sometimes after a glass of wine. These are not the views
of any organization I represent.

Hurricane Ida: November 8 Update A

Well there's a couple of bits of good news for you all in this entry.
First, Ida's circulation (technically the vorticity) is beginning to
diminish. Yesterday, when I said she was a hurricane, the vorticity was
strong throughout almost the entire troposphere (lowest ~10-15km of our
atmosphere). Today it looks like the highest levels have lost it, which is
an indication that she won't intensify much further. The second piece of
good news is that although I tried, I couldn't think of any 'original'
jokes today so you are spared that. ;-)

Ida was officially (finally) named a hurricane late last night. Again, a
number of hours after I think she became one. She's got winds of 90mph at
the moment, making her a strong cat 1 (range: 74-95 mph). I think she
might be a weak cat 2 actually (range: 96-110mph). Currently centered at
about 21.2 N, 86 W, she's moving NW at 10mph. Central pressure 983mb.

I know the forecast now has her as a hurricane until Tuesday, when she
reaches the northern Gulf coast. But I'm not convinced that she will be a
hurricane by the time she gets up there. There are a number of reasons I
think this, apart from the circulation issue. The wind shear is stronger
in the Gulf, which will take it's toll. Although the surface water temps
are high enough in the southern Gulf, they begin to cool off in the
northern Gulf. Also, the deeper warm water that she has just crossed in
the Caribbean does not extend into the Gulf as much as it has done in
previous years (the Loop Current). The only factor I see that will keep
her as a hurricane in the northern Gulf is the fast speed she's forecast
to move at. Having said all this, even if she does decrease in intensity,
the interaction with the front will create some wet & windy conditions
around the Gulf. It will be like a normal day in Scotland ;-).

Of course, please ignore me and listen to your Emergency Managers & NWS &
NHC. I know those of you who are in the watch zones will be prepared. Drop
me a line if you have any questions.

Ciao for now,
J.

Updates archived at jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: These are my opinions only and not those of any organization I
represent. I wrote the other half of this in the main text above.

TS Ida: November 7 Update B

I am pretty sure it should be Hurricane Ida by now, but the cautious NHC
are still calling her a tropical storm. Wind speeds are 'officially' 70
mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), central pressure 990mb. I think Ida has been a
hurricane for a few hours. The next NHC advisory should reflect this. At
least they agree with me that the wind shear in the Caribbean isn't enough
to stop this storm from developing.

She's currently somewhere around 18.9N, 84.3W. She's been moving more
northward than they expected, bringing her ever closer to Cuba. But she
has taken a small NNW turn in the last few hours, so hopefully she'll only
clip Cuba. She's officially moving N at 10mph.

The forecast in the Gulf is still tricky. I know a number of you are
travelling now and over the next few days. I haven't had a chance to reply
to you all, but I'll get to it soon. Other than the cruise heading into
the Gulf from Tampa (don't worry! I'll be in touch tomorrow), I think
everyone else should be more-or-less ok. It really is tricky because of
the front coming through, and the higher wind shear in the Gulf. I'm
thinking that she will weaken once she's in the Gulf. I'll try and reply
to you individually as things become clearer (I bet they'll be crystal
clear this time next week ;-)).

That's all for today.
Toodle pip!
J.

Updates archived at jyotikastorms@blogspot.com

DISCLAIMER: It's past my bedtime here so just read the one I wrote with
the previous entry. ;-)

TS Ida: November 7 Update A

Q: What's this storm going to do?
A: I daknow!

Hee hee. I spent ALL day thinking of that one. OK, I won't give up my day
job yet then. ;-)

Ida's is developing quite nicely, as expected given the water she is
travelling over. The latest advisory has her at 17.9N, 84.1W, moving N at
9mph. Central pressure 997 mb, wind speeds 60mph (TS range: 39-73 mph).

The forecast keeps her as a tropical storm, but I think she might reach
hurricane strength in the Caribbean. The circulation has improved in the
higher levels of the troposphere. In fact, I think 60 mph might be a
little on the low side already. Cloud tops are very cold now, which
indicates strong convection.

She's also moving more northward than the current track, which will bring
her closer to Cuba. But all the models seem to be in good agreement that
she will make a north-westward turn towards Yucatan. The models have
improved over the past few years, and are pretty good for the 24 hour
forecast, so I will go with this as I don't have better information.
Having said that, she's actually remained on a more northward track than
expected, so maybe they will shift in their next model run.

There is some wind shear in the northern Caribbean, and a lot more in the
Gulf. But the Caribbean shear may be too weak and may not be enough to
hinder her development after a certain point. Conversely, the shear in the
Gulf might be enough to make her a lovely little blobette again.

So to sum up: things are still uncertain. The first thing to watch for is
that NW turn in the track. I might send out another update today! First
time in ages I've done two. But she's so interesting that she's worth it.

Later gators (and 'noles and bulls and any others out there... ;-)),
J.

Updates archived on jyotikastorms@blogspot.com. (I think :-)).

DISCLAIMER: These are just my views. Well, a fraction of them. I do have
views on other things as well you know. If a storm is looming, please pay
attention to your emergency managers, weather service and the NHC.

TD Ida: November 6 Update A

Oh dear, what a palava! I can just see some of you rolling your eyes when
you see the latest track and the apparent sharp right turn Ida is forecast
to make in the Gulf in five days, directly towards Tampa Bay. The forecast
has, indeed, become all sorts of complicated since yesterday.

First though: she's just emerged into the Caribbean again, north of
Honduras, and is heading N at about 8 mph. She's at 15.7N, 83.9 W, central
pressure 1007 mb, wind speed 35mph. Due to minor technical difficulties, I
can't actually access the data or satellite images. But I can tell you
what to expect.

As she continues north, she'll be over water temperatures greater than 30
deg C. V. Warm!! Not only that, but the warm water is very deep there -
amongst the deepest warm water in the western Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf
region. This means she has a really good energy source because she's
churning up more warm water. The other factor in favor of development is
that the circulation remains strong over most of the troposphere. So it is
likely she will get stronger once she clears land - definitely back to TS
at least (in agreement with the NHC). Working against this is the wind
shear, which will pick up as she moves northwards. The second factor
against too much development is how much she will interact with land. A
battle will ensue over how strong little Ida will become.

The reason the forecast is a bit wonky in the Gulf is because in addition
to the uncertain intensity factors above, there is another front (trough)
that will move southwards at around the same time as she moves northwards.
It's a question of where the two meet, which is difficult to forecast.

Ida's a tricky one! Not what you want to hear I know. It's unlikely she'll
be a major storm *if* she gets to Florida. It also looks unlikely that
she'll head to the northern Gulf at the moment, but that depends on how
far south that front gets. For now you know the drill. It never hurts to
be prepared: stock up on ice cream, wine, sun screen etc. ;-) Drop me a
line if you have any questions.

As famously said in 'Terminator' by that bloke, "I'll be back". (tomorrow
sans technical difficulties).
J.

DISCLAIMER: the views expressed today were so waffly that I don't think
anyone I represent (myself included) could possibly claim them! Pay
attention to your local emergency manager

TS Ida: November 5 Update A

I'm going to go easy on the NHC today because they do, after all, have a
tough job. Of course, if I believed Ida was still a hurricane by the time
they called it earlier today, then I'm pretty sure aliens made crop
circles.

Ida, from the data I saw, was a hurricane in the early hours of this
morning (EST). By the time she made landfall in Nicaragua, she had already
lost a lot of convection and would have been a strong TS. I think the call
was about 7-8 hours too late. Rather like the belated upgrade to TS status
yesterday - which officially jumped from a 35 mph TD to a strong TS with
60 mph winds. Maybe their timing is sluggish because they've not had much
practice lately. Anyway, I agree with them now, she's back to being a TS.

She's been dumping rain on Nicaragua for over 24 hours (not good).
Official wind speed is 60 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). I think she's weaker
than that. Central pressure 990 mb. She's at about 13.3N, 83.7W, and is
moving NNW at a 3mph crawl. The good news is that the longer she remains
over land, the weaker she gets, which means that as she re-emerges into
the Caribbean (north of her current location), she may not reintensify to
TS status. A slow/stalled storm has other problems when it comes to
forecasting. The pressure fields around it change, which means the track
becomes tricky. At the moment I'd say she would curve around towards Cuba
instead of heading into the Gulf because of interaction with a front that
is moving southwards (currently over mid-FL). It depends on timing and
when she picks up some speed (motion, not the drug! ;) ).

That's all for today folks. Another update tomorrow, in which I'll
continue to be super-nice to the NHC. ;)

Ciao,
J.

DISCLAIMER: These are my opinions, not those of any organization I
represent. If you disagree with them, we can debate it over a cup of tea
(PG Tips). ;) If a storm is approaching, please pay attention to your
local emergency managers, weather service, and of course, the NHC.

Caribbean Blobette: November 4 Update A

Hey! Thought it was over? Think again. The '09 hurricane season, in true
Monty Python style, is running around saying "I'm not dead yet!" ;)

A blobette has been brewing in the western Caribbean over the past two
days, and today she made a move. Although still officially a Tropical
Depression (#11), I am pretty sure she reached Tropical Storm status about
7 or so hours ago. There's a plane investigating the system now because
they can provide accurate data... and there's only so many card games to
play and crossword puzzles one can do before one gets bored. ;) The next
name is Ida.

She's at around 11.8N, 82.3W, moving WNW at about 7mph. Landfall is
expected to be Nicaragua on Friday morning. I don't have the right data to
make a call on track, so I'll go with this official one. Seems reasonable
to me.

Winds are officially 35 mph (TS range: 39-73mph). Although not very windy,
there is a lot of rain in this system so the real danger will be potential
flooding/landslides. Water temperatures exceed 29 deg C, and the
circulation is strong over the lower half of the troposphere (which is the
lowest layer of our atmosphere).

It looks like there's a chance that wind shear will pick up a bit by
tomorrow and the system is interacting with land. So despite the warm sea
temperatures, it may not develop too much.

As we are approaching the end of the season (Nov 30), we generally see
more storms develop in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico region as opposed to
Atlantic storms. There's nothing unusual about the location.

I'll send out another update tomorrow. Wow... I can't believe it. A storm
that's NOT heading for me this season. We might get sun! Ok... I know,
that last part is a bit of a stretch. ;)

Toodle Pip :)
J.

DISCLAIMER: These are my views, not those of any organization I represent.
If a storm is approaching, please pay attention to your local emergency
managers and weather service and NHC, as they have the most up-to-date
information! Etc etc.