Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Hurricane Danielle and Tropical Storm Earl: August 25, Update A

Oh dear, it's a bit late over here so I'm not going to spend much time on this entry ... which is lucky for the NHC, because I've not been overly impressed with their call about Tropical Storm Earl!
Hurricane Danielle:
After intensifying back to a hurricane yesterday, she's had pretty steady winds of about 85mph for most of the day today making her a solid cat 1 storm (wind range: 74-95mph). She's currently at about 21.4N, 53.1W, with a central pressure estimated to be at 982mb, and she's moving NW at a pretty fast 17mph. She made a more northward turn today (compared to the WNW track she's been on for the past few days). I think she might track a little to the east (or right) of the center of cone for the next few hours (day). The forecast calls for her to be close to or even possibly over Bermuda on Sunday. I'm not sure it'll be a direct hit but more of a clip - the outer bands might pass over them. That's still a few days away, so we'll see. Clearly the stress of preparing is getting to them (not), as I got this from Steve B. on Bermuda today:

Two atoms are drinking at the bar. Suddenly one says to the other, "I've just lost one of my electrons!"
 "Are you sure?" asks the other.
 "Yes," replied the first atom. "I'm positive."
(hee hee - anyone got a joke to send back?)
Back to our lovely Danielle. She's been experiencing some wind shear, which has helped to maintain her as a cat 1 storm. Also, the vorticity (circulation) in the upper troposphere decreased today which also contributed to her maintaining cat 1 status. However, I just had a quick look and the upper level vorticity has started to look good again so there's a chance she might strengthen some more tomorrow, despite the wind shear and dry air in front of her. Water temperatures remain warm at around 28-29 deg C. In this case, intensity fluctuations are completely dependent on what's going on in the atmosphere.
Tropical Storm Earl:
Well. What can I say? Some of you might remember a few years ago when the NHC seemed to consistently wait until a system was almost a Tropical Storm, then upgrade it to a Tropical Depression with the 'forecast' that it would shortly become a Tropical Storm. Remember that? I do, cos I ranted about it back then. Well, here we are again. There is no way this went from being a 'newly formed' Tropical Depression to a fully fledged Tropical Storm within two advisories - it was so clearly a Tropical Depression yesterday, and it sure looked like a Tropical Storm before they upgraded it to a Tropical Depression. Grrr. (Isn't it a good thing that it's late over here and I don't have time for a proper "chat" about this? ;-)). I have no idea why it took them so long to call this one!!
Anyway, our Tropical Storm Earl is here now (well, to be pedantic, he's out there now). His center is in the region of 14.4N, 32.3W and he's moving generally westward at 16mph. Winds are 40mph (officially - I think they might be a little stronger) (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure is 1006mb. At one point today, the convection in this 'pre-Depression' blob was looking almost the same as Danielle at that time. The vorticity (circulation) is very strong in the lower half of the troposphere (technical term for the lowest section of our atmosphere), but unlike Danielle there isn't anything in the higher levels. He's going to stay on that westward track for a couple more days and at the moment I'd say there's a good chance he'll closely follow the track Danielle is on after that. 
More news from the 'we-finally-found-the-2010-hurricane-season' Atlantic tomorrow!
Night night!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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