Sunday, August 08, 2010

Tropical Depression Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 8, Update A

Tropical Depression Colin:
The NHC downgraded him to a tropical depression earlier today, and in their 5pm advisory they said that he had dissipated and that was their last advisory on the system. While I agree with the downgrade to tropical depression, I think I need to clarify what they mean by 'dissipated' - which to most people suggests he's vanished, but this is weather-speak jargon. Essentially, it means that he's now just an area of low pressure, so he has still got convection (thunderstorms and rain) but no closed circulation... so for those on Bermuda, in some senses "He's only mostly dead" as Billy Crystal said in The Princess Bride (sent to me by Dede W.) ;-)
It looks to me like he still has some decent circulation in the lowest part of the atmosphere, and as I said, there is still some convection. I've been getting updates from Steve B. on Bermuda who said it was stormy at various points during the day - that would be because of the isolated thunderstorms moving over Bermuda as part of the tropical storm low. Actually, it looks like parts of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba had even more severe thunderstorms today than Bermuda!  
For you guys in Bermuda, I'm not sure the rain is over yet. Although the 'center' according to the NHC is at 32.9N, 65.5W, he's not very organized so that's just to give us an idea of location. However the convection is still mostly south of you (moving northwards), and it looks like it is re-building so you might have a "bit more" rain... hope you have your rain-hats and wellie boots ready!
From the NHC: Central pressure is estimated to be 1015mb (not low pressure at all!) and he's moving N at 12 mph with winds of 30mph.
This is probably my last update on TS Colin as well, unless he tries for yet another round!
Atlantic Blobette:
Not too much change in status since yesterday in this one... it still has circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but convection is building. It's somewhere around 24N, 46W, moving in a NW direction. There is dry air surrounding this system and some inhibiting wind shear, so the convection is northeast of the center, but it looks like it has closed circulation to me. I think this might be a Tropical Depression already. Maybe tomorrow the NHC will "Make it so!" (Capt. Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek NG). ;-)
Until the morrow,
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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