Hurricane Earl, Post-Tropical Storm Danielle, Tropical Storm Fiona: August 31, Update A

Post-Tropical Storm Danielle:
After my last entry, she was downgraded to a Tropical Storm, and then downgraded to a 'Post Tropical Storm'. That's god enough for me. This is my last entry on Danielle, who was much better behaved than Earl! :-)
 
Hurricane Earl:
He's at 19.9N, 66.2W, with winds of 135mph making him a cat 4 (range of cat 4: 131-155mph). He's moving WNW at 14mph, with a low central pressure of 933mb. He has not got to the Gulf Stream yet, so it looks like he might intensify further at that point. The importance of crossing the Gulf Stream is that it is a source of deep warm water. It skirts the US east coast from Florida to North Carolina, then breaks away and flows out into the Atlantic.
 
But before getting there, there's a chance he'll weaken a bit. His convection isn't as strong as I've seen for some cat 4s, and it's possible that it will get reduced by some small interaction with Hispaniola. There's also a bit of wind shear ahead of him - I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have though, given how strong he is.
 
At the moment I'd say I think he's going to clip the US coastline - North Carolina. And when I say clip, I mean the eye... which means that even further inland will feel the effects of a strong hurricane. The current forecast path then has him moving along the NE coast towards New York and New England. It's possible that he won't be as severe (i.e. not a cat 4 or 5) by the time he gets to that northern part of the US because he will have interacted with land.  
 
From St. Thomas (Tom J.):
It is 11:30PM HERE AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE PROVEN TO BE MORE STRONG AND GUSTY THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE STORM BLOWING FROM THE NORTH..........THE LEADING EDGE OF EARL SEEMED TO BE THE WORST OF THE GUSTY WINDS BUT DID NOT LAST QUITE AS LONG AS WHEN THE WIND SHIFTED FROM THE NORTH TO BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH............WE ARE TOLD HEAVY RAIN IS OUR REWARD FOR HAVING MISSED A VISIT FROM THE EYE OF EARL.........WITH NO POWER, AND 85 DEGREES F. THINGS ARE QUITE FUNKY HERE IN THE HOUSE WHERE IT IS STILL A BIT UNWISE TO OPEN WINDOWS...........GOOD THING FOR GENERATORS WHICH ARE RUNNING FOR THE HOUSE EVERY FEW HOURS TO CONSERVE GASOLINE..........fIONA IS NEXT..........THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS HEALTHY WITH NO MENTION FROM THE NHL AT THIS HOUR
 
From experience, I've also often found the south side of a storm to be more damaging than the north, despite theory.
 
Good luck to those in the VIs! I hope there's time to recover before Fiona comes knocking on your door. 
 
Tropical Storm Fiona:
She went from an area of invest directly to Tropical Storm status, with no mention of an official Tropical Depression. Anyway, at least she's officially a storm now. Low wind shear, low level circulation is slowly improving, but nothing in the higher levels at the moment.  Convection is slowly improving. Current winds are 40mph, so she's barely a Tropical Storm. She's zooming westward at 23 mph, central pressure 1007mb. Location around 15.5N. 51.8W.
 
More on all of the above (except Danielle) later... must get into work!
Toodles,
J.
 
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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