Thursday, September 30, 2010

Ex-Tropical Depression Nicole and the Atlantic Blob: September 30, Update A

Very short note today! Yay!  
Ex-Tropical Depression Nicole:
She's fully merged with that front that stretches up the eastern side of the US. It's dumped a lot of rain all over the place, as expected. The NHC went back and changed their assessment on Nicole for the 12 hours (possibly longer) before they initially called her a Tropical Storm, so in the final records she will officially be a Tropical Storm for longer than 6 hours. It'll all be looked at much more carefully after the season is over but there is clearly some ambiguity about this system in the 'real-time' analysis. Personally, I don't think she was a Tropical Storm. Oh well. With all this rain, it'll all come out in the wash. ;-) This is my last entry on this system.
Atlantic Blob:
Blob (10% chance of forming) + Blobette (20% chance of forming) = Blob (30% chance of forming). Nice (thanks to Karen M. for the maths idea). The two systems from yesterday got together to make a cute Blob. (Awww). And to make life easier for the rest of us. Vorticity in the lowest half of the troposphere has improved, but it covers a large area around 15 N, from 45-50W. However, the convection is not really very cohesive. It is a perfect Blob! We'll see if this develops further. It's currently heading WNW at 15-20mph. It is already bringing wet weather to some of the Caribbean Islands. The next name is Otto, but no more on this unless it develops.  
It's raining here in the UK too. Again. ;-)
Toodle pippy!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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