Oh Mamma Mia! Be afraid. Be very afraid… of my updates with Abba references! ;-) Obviously the NHC is quivering at that thought! Their forecast shows that they plan on naming Tropical Storm Fernand(o) about 2 seconds before it makes landfall in Mexico tonight (and then they will downgrade it 3 seconds later). Naming it just before landfall is a bit silly (British understatement!).
They have just upgraded the southern Gulf of Mexico blob to Tropical Depression 6, but I think this is already weak Tropical Storm Fernand and has been for many hours (when they gave it a 70% chance it was already stronger than it is now)! I wish I’d grabbed a satellite image from this morning to show you, but here is one from about 3-4 hours ago and one I just grabbed from the website and you can see the convection is already beginning to fall apart!
The circulation has also decreased in the lower troposphere since this morning. They center is around 19.5N, 95.5W, and he’s heading W at 12mph. Winds are officially 35mph, central pressure is 1006mb. They really should have called this earlier today, not when it’s falling apart! They have sent a plane to confirm that this is a Tropical Storm for the next few hours. Sigh. Really? I like the planes and the data they provide, but really? You don’t need that to see what sort of storm this is! Sigh.
I think it’s wine-o-clock time!
Ciao for now,
J.
Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
Twitter @JyovianStorm
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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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