Sunday, August 18, 2013

The Low formerly known as Erin, the GOM Blob, and the new E. Atl. Blob: August 18, Update A

This will be short and sweet – perfect for a Sunday evening. J

Tropical Depression Erin was downgraded to a Low. Her convection decreased steadily during the day, and her circulation is now only good in the lowest portions of the troposphere, so I would agree with this.  This is my last update on Erin.

The Gulf of Mexico blob is still causing some ruckus in the Gulf, as expected. No circulation, just a bunch of thunderstorms and rainy weather. But he is getting closer and closer to the western edge of the Gulf and I expect the convection to subside within a couple of days. This will be my last update on this blob.

I see there is another blob that just came off Africa. Currently it has a 10% chance of developing. Currently the circulation is a mess with no definite structure in the atmosphere, and the convection is all over the place as you can see in this IR satellite image from about 12 hours ago:

I’ll keep an eye on it of course, but it’s way too soon to say if it will amount to any sort of apple in its mother’s eye. Next one is Fernand(o).

That’s it… just in time for second-glass-of-wine o’clock! ;-)  

Toodles until the next one!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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