Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Atlantic Blobette and Caribbean Blob: August 14, Update A

Looks like there was a sale on the red crayons today! The NHC increased the chances of a Caribbean Blob and Atlantic Blobette to 70-80%. Perfect timing really as I’m back on earth for a little while, after having completed some travel in space and time (future, past, hither, thither, you name it J).

Atlantic Blobette

This blobette zipped Out of Africa all dressed up and fully coiffed, she just needs a touch of make-up and some shoes and she’s ready to boogie. Although she only emerged in the last 48 hours, she has an 80% probability of developing into a Tropical Depression in the next two days. I think we are already looking at a Tropical Depression at the very least, if not TS Erin (assuming she beats her Caribbean brother to the punch)! She is only 100 miles S-SE of the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic, so she’s a good week or more away from getting to the western side of the Atlantic. That’s plenty of time for me to bore you all silly with my chatter! ;-)

Her convection is pretty good as you can see in this infrared satellite image:

Gosh, it’s been so long… can you remember what the colours indicate? Can I??  Hang on while I just zip back in time on the internet to look it up in here: Ah yes, thunderstorms and gallons of rain! J

Her circulation is also very good in the lower half of the troposphere (<Science Alert!> troposphere refresher…  She should really be weak Tropical Storm Erin already!

She’ll generally head WNW for the next few days, so nothing more on track for today.

Caribbean Blob

You can see this blob rather easily as the Big Blue Blob in the western Caribbean in this IR satellite image:

It looks like he has deteriorated a little in the past few hours. Earlier today he too was seeing red, but he is interacting a little with the land in Central America, which has resulted a decrease in his circulation and convection. But he is also interacting with the very warm and deep waters of the Caribbean (which is why there is still some heavy convection - the orange and yellow areas) so I don’t think he will go away. I would agree with the NHC that he is not yet a Tropical Storm and I’m not sure if he will become one before making landfall in the Yucatan peninsula (although he may already be a TD). Next name is Fernand... it really should be Fernando… how can I make Abba references if they have the name wrong? (oh don’t worry Chiquitita, I’ll find a way ;-)).

The models are showing landfall as a storm in the Gulf from anywhere in the Florida panhandle to Mexico which is, of course, just down the road a bit. I’ll see if I can get a better idea of what’s going on track-wise tomorrow.

Now for something almost completely different… some other Cool Science! (thanks to Doug C. for alerting me to this one). For those who saw the Perseid Meteor shower this weekend and want more Space Nerdiness (and who wouldn’t?), there is a newly discovered nova that you can see just with binoculars! Check out the details here: <Science Alert!> A nova is an explosion in a white dwarf star (not to be confused with the dwarves you saw in The Hobbit(!!)). Our Sun is a yellow dwarf star, but this is just one phase in its life, as you can see here:

It was born, it had it's rebellious teenage years and now, in human years, I think it is in its late 30s. J In about 5.5bn years, it will become a red giant, which won’t be able to sustain itself so it will evolve again into a white dwarf! So much easier to follow than the plot of Lord of the Rings, isn’t it? ;-) <End Science Alert!>  

That’s all from me. Best get out there and look at the skies before these pesky storms come along and cloud up the view! J More tomorrow.

Toodle pip!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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