Hurricanes Lee and Margot: September 13th, Update A

Hurricane SlowLEE (teehee) is finally approaching land, so I thought I better pop in and say a few words. And also, we have just crossed the statistical mid-way mark of the hurricane season (Sept 10th)... 

Wo-oah, we're halfway there, wo-oah... 

(and if you are like me, you will never sing the original lyrics to that song again! :-)).

Lee been a been moving at a bit of a sedate pace as storms go - he was named on the 5th of Sept, and looked a bit ferocious on the 7th when he was officially and briefly a cat 5 hurricane,  but dropped down cat 4 on the 8th and he's been weakening since then, so he is now a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), central pressure of 953mb. He's not as robust looking as he was earlier in his life:

There is still some convection (rain and thundery weather) but it's not as evenly spread as one would see in a hurricane, but he does clearly have an eye and his circulation is throughout the troposphere so he is definitely a hurricane. He is expected to decrease in intensity and there are many reasons to think this will be the case. First, there is some wind shear ahead of him - you can see the clouds to the north streaming off into the yonder distance. Second, he is also about to move over cooler sea surface waters of around 26 deg C, with only the upper 25-50m of water at that temperature. And third, the air to his north and west is dry. 

His outer bands are already over Bermuda - mostly just cloud and rain - and tomorrow will be a bit breezy, but it should be quite nice by the weekend. Perfect for golf and sailing if you are in Bermuda, but maybe not advisable as 'fun activities' in Maine and Newfoundland this weekend... he's currently at 28.0N, 67.7W heading N at 9mph...

He should be a Tropical Storm by the time he gets to Canada - but a strong storm so get ready up there! There is a front moving across the eastern US which will meet with Lee. The double impact of this is that (a) it is why he will curve to the east and (b) it will add some energy, so although he may not have too much rainy and thundery weather by Saturday evening, he will be a blustery. 

I'll keep an eye on Lee in case he does anything funny in which case I'll pop back, but the NHC forecast seems about right. For those who are in the path, remember to listen to your emergency managers!

Now, there is another hurricane out there... Hurricane Margot. She's at 35.2N, 40.5W heading N at an even slower 7 mph. Winds are 85mph which makes her a cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), central pressure is 972mb. However, she is a bit confused and going round in circles...

So, of course, I won't be saying too much more about her either.

Be careful and Toodle pip for now! 

J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter (now a 'placeholder letter') @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia: August 29, Update A

Busy day today all over the place! Well, maybe not in Florida, but everywhere else I'm sure. ;-) Ok ok, I know you have been very busy over yonder, preparing today, boarding up, and getting supplies so you are well stocked up (or have evacuated)... but hands up, who's also been doing this...

(Image Credit: unknown from the internet, but The Simpsons are great!)

Hurricane Idalia 

She is currently at 27.4N, 84.6 W heading N at a very fast 18mph. She is on track to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area tomorrow morning at around 8 or 9am.

She is tracking slightly west of the official center but still towards Apalachee Bay (luckily not a very populated area, except by wildlife) and within that cone. Although the track shows that she will cross S. Carolina and southern N. Carolina and enter the Atlantic, that far end is because I think the models are picking up Franklin... however, as Franklin will be moving northwards, I think that track may straighten out a bit so she may be over N. Carolina a little more than is currently shown - she may cross some of the outer banks before heading into the Atlantic. 

For those of you on the east side of the storm in Florida, you will experience storm surge as I mentioned yesterday - and there's a SuperMoon tomorrow, which means that your normal High Tide will be higher than normal as well! ever wondered how you can find out the storm surge in your area? Well, today's your lucky day... 

<Technical Alert!> How to look up Storm Surge: Go to NOAA's website, tidesandcurrents (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/).

If you click on this link, you will see an ugly cartoonish bad-suntan coloured map of the US (in shades of orange to represent the land - which, with the heat waves of recent times may just be the colour of land anyway these days!). Click on the state that you are interested in e.g. Florida. This will show you a much nicer colour map with a bunch of pins. These are the general locations of the stations monitoring the water levels along the coast. You can either locate the nearest station by entering the area you are interested in, or click on the station nearest to the location of interest, which will zoom into the map. So by clicking on the icon over Tampa Bay (which has the number 17), the stations along the south west coast of Florida come into focus. 

Now clicking on the specific station of interest, and in the lower left is a button that says 'plot'. Click that on and it will show you a plot of the expected water level (in red) and the actual measured water level (in blue). Just watch out though (if you are on a Mac especially) because the map is not static so you can accidentally scroll around and end up in the middle of the Atlantic, and then will have to zoom out until the map you want re-appears and then zoom back in.

Here is the plot from Ft. Myers for example:

You can see that the actual water level in red has been higher than the predicted levels since yesterday and that gap is widening as the storm is passing by offshore. By scrolling your mouse over the plot, the numbers appear showing the actual values (and then you have to do some complicated maths to get to the difference between the two). In this case, you can see that the water levels currently about 1.5-2 ft above normal. 

Moving a little father up the coast to St. Petersburg, the water level is also about 2ft above normal

If you want to see the corresponding winds, air pressure and other handy-dandy data, you can scroll down. So here, for example, is the pressure field which is decreasing as the storm gets closer.

And the winds: 

which are given in knots (1 knot = 1.15 mph) which means the winds here are approaching 20mph. 
<End Technical Alert!> 

She is definitely a hurricane. In addition to having strong circulation at all levels of the troposphere, she has a good looking eye now:

But clearly the rain bands are already over the peninsula and reaching Georgia. Winds are 110mph, central pressure 960mb, which makes her a strong cat 2 storm/borderline cat 3 (Cat 2 range: 96-110mph).

As for her intensity over the next few hours - there are glimmers that she may not grow into the very strong cat 3 (125mph is the forecast!) that is currently forecast (although she will definitely be a hurricane at landfall) because:

1. it does look like the wind shear is increasing in front of her so hopefully that will at least stop her from growing - and we can see that because the bands are streaming off to the northeast. 

2. the dry air to her west is also inhibiting her a little - we can see that from the ragged looking outer bands to the west side and the drier part to the south.

3. she is now moving over water where only the upper 50m or so is warmer than 26 deg... although she is moving quickly, so she may not churn up as much cooler water as one would hope so this may not be as big of an effect. 

Stay safe out there! Don't jump around in puddles after the storm has gone until you are sure there are no downed power lines. Good luck! 

 

Hurricane Franklin

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, not too much has changed. Franklin is still a major cat 3 hurricane with winds of 125mph, central pressure 947 mb (cat 3 range: 111 - 129mph). He is at 31.9N, 69.4W, heading NE at 12mph: 

And my, what a big eye he has! You could fit 10 Bermuda's into that eye! 

Although he looks huge, his convection isn't as bad as it could be and he is going to pass by Bermuda tomorrow with only the outer bands passing overhead. I do believe surf's up there - and along the US Eastern Seaboard!

That's all for today. I know there's another blobette out there (Tropical Depression 11) but I'm ignoring her for now.

Toodle pip!

J. 

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Idalia: August 28, Update A

I'll sum up some wrap-up thoughts from last week on the US west coast some other day. Today, it's once more unto the breach dear friends, and over to the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico where the game's afoot. Are your supplies ready? Water? Candles? Ice Cream? Wine?

Tropical Storm Idalia

She is getting stronger as I'm sure everyone in Florida and the southeastern US are already aware... 

She's currently at 22.0N, 85.0W, heading N at a stately 8 mph. Her track is bringing her into Florida, but the center could be anywhere in that cone so don't focus on the center of it. We are still over 1.5 days away and that could shift slightly.

One of the big issues is going to be storm surge along that coast of Florida and the amount of surge depends on the track, but also on a number of other things.

<Science Alert!> Storm surge is water rising along the coastline as a storm approaches and makes landfall. How high the storm surge is depends on a number of factors: 

1. Location at Landfall. Storms are low pressure systems, so in the northern hemisphere they rotate in an anticlockwise direction.  This means generally water will be pushed onshore on the right side of the eye (eastern or southern side depending on if the coast runs E-W or N-S) side of the eye, and will be pushed off shore on the left side (western or northern side depending on coast orientation). In this case, if Idalia makes landfall just to the north of Tampa Bay (for example), she will push water up into the bay and storm surge will be higher. 

2. Intensity. Storms are low pressure systems, which means that there is low atmospheric pressure in the middle. But obviously we don't have a low pressure "hole" between the air and the ocean. Instead the water 'rises' up to fill the 'gap' which is created by the atmosphere's low pressure. So, the stronger the storm is, the lower the central pressure, the greater the 'gap' for the water to rise to 'fill' and therefore the higher the storm surge. 

3. Speed of the storm. If a storm is moving quickly, then there is simply less time for water to get pushed onshore before the storm has swung by. Storm surge is greater for slower storms. 

4. Angle of storm approach to land. Depending on if a storm is approaching land directly or at an angle can affect the amount of storm surge because of the direction of the winds. Storms that are heading directly onto shore result in greater storm surge than those that are approaching it from an angle - skirting along the coastline. 

5. Shape of coastline (bays etc). Water can get piled into bays and upstream in estuaries of course. 

6. The depth of the seafloor just off the coast is important. For areas with a shallow seafloor, more water piles up compared to areas where the seafloor is deep just off the coast. 

<End Science Alert!>

For those who need a reminder, I use NOAA's tidesandcurrents website. For those who haven't seen this before, I'll cover how to find out what you need to know in tomorrow's post. 

(https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/) 

Idalia is currently a Tropical Storm with winds of 70mph, central pressure 983mb, which makes her a very strong Tropical Storm (TS range: 39 - 73mph)... actually, I think she is already a hurricane because her circulation (vorticity) is already present throughout the troposphere.  She just clipped Cuba but that wasn't enough to inhibit her development: 

She looks like she has a lot of convection - that's because she is moving over a part of the ocean which is very warm, with sea surface temperatures over 30 deg C. But not only is the surface hot, the upper 125 meters of ocean is warmer than 26 deg C - so anything she is churning up is definitley feeding her! Her blossoming like this in this part of the world is not unusual though, because she is going over the Loop Current System... yes, squeezing in another <Science Alert!>. :-)  

<Science and Forecasting Alert!> The Loop Current (System). The Loop Current is part of an ocean current system that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico through the Yucatan Strait, and then out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Straits of Florida, and up the east coast of the US. How far it extends into the Gulf of Mexico varies from year to year and month to month. As this current flows around Florida, it changes name to become the Florida Current. Then as it flows up the east coast, it changes name again and is known as the Gulf Stream. It leaves the US east coast around North Carolina and flows across the north Atlantic to the UK. Why is this current system important for tropical storms? This current system is well known because it has the deepest warm waters, and is very fast flowing - but the current also has offspring that can also have deep warm waters (all these offspring are called Eddy by the way). The deep warm waters mean that tropical storms that pass over any part of this current system or over any warm water Eddies have a jolly good (British understatement) chance of becoming stronger. 

So, how can you see where these areas are? One of the places I look is buried within the vast network of websites that NOAA has. In particular, the Office of Satellite and Product Operations has a site called Satellite Heat Content Suite (I know, such a catchy name - made for a song lyric I'm sure! ;-)). I use the North Atlantic page: 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/ohc_natl.html

If you click on this, you will see all sorts of maps. The two most useful for our purposes is the one on the top left - Sea Surface Temperature - which looks like this today: 

You can see that the waters where Idalia is are the darkest of dark reds - over 30 deg C. The other most useful map (more so than the sea surface temperatures actually) is the depth of the 26 deg C Isotherm - third one down in the right column and that looks like this today:

From this, we can see that Idalia has been passing over that area of yellow/green just north of the western tip of Cuba - this is where the upper 125m of water is warmer than 26 deg C. No wonder she picked up some convection. <End Science and Forecasting Alert>

The current forecast is for a major hurricane at landfall on Wednesday. A major hurricane is a cat 3 or higher storm (111mph winds or higher). At the moment, I don't see anything that will inhibit her from growing in the next few hours - the water is toasty, and there isn't much wind shear around. There is a bit of dry air to her northwest, over the Gulf, but I'm not sure it's close enough to combat that convection. However, the 26 deg C depth does get shallower as she moves northwards, so there is a possibility that will help to keep her growth in check - but to decrease her intensity requires strong wind shear as well, so that's what I will look for tomorrow. 

Hurricane Franklin

Just a quick note on Franklin, who is in the Atlantic at 29.4N, 71.0W, heading N at 9mph. He is already a major cat 4 hurricane with winds of 150mph, central pressure of 926 mb (Cat 4 range: 130-156mph), but is going to avoid Bermuda and stay away from the eastern seaboard as well: 

He's a good looking chap (what else would you expect with a storm that strong?), but not a big fella... 

Bermuda will get some rain, a bit of a breeze, maybe not a golfing day on Wednesday, but hopefully nothing too bad. 

For those in Florida - get ready and listen to your emergency managers - they know the area the best. If you are in an area that floods easily (yes, I know we are talking about Flat Florida - hard not to get some flooding!), then please evacuate if you are told to. 

Until tomorrow!

Toodle pip,

J.

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Hilary (Pacific) and TD 6 (Atlantic): August 19, Update A

As I sit here, sipping my tea, in the skies overhead there are clouds circling and a helicopter circling. One of these is normal for LA. :-)

Hurricane Hilary is at 24.4N, 114.2W, heading NNW at a fast 17mph! They have moved the track forward in time, so if you were expecting her to pass by on Monday, that was yesterday's plan. Now her center will clip Baja tonight... 

Make landfall tomorrow afternoon (Sunday, 12pm = noon), and have zoomed by the LA region by midnight. This doesn't mean that the effects of the storm will be over by midnight on Sunday - those I expect will continue into Monday (you will see why below). 

She's decreased in intensity as we expected and is now a weak-mid level cat 2 storm with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), on target to hopefully be a weak cat 2 or strong cat 1 as she clips Baja. Her convection (and circulation) has really decreased quite a lot:

And if you look at the track and where the main convection is - you will see that it's mostly on the east side and south of the storm. This means that the bulk of the rainy sort of weather will be inland California - San Bernardino etc. - if it continues to have heavy convection by the time it reaches that far north.

But even as the center passes by, the storm isn't over because you can see that there is some heavy convection on the southern side of the storm as well - and if that persists, there will be also be a lot more 'weather' in the wake of the eye.

Although she hasn't even got half way up the Baja peninsula, because of wind shear, the clouds (some with rain) are already streaming over Southern California and north - even over Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, with the very outer edge reaching Canada:

That's quite a lot of rain - but I suspect it is needed. 

I was asked how I knew yesterday that the storm was weakening, even though the plane was flying to gather more data:

1. The cloud tops in the infrared satellite imagery were getting warmer (less of the deeper clouds indicated by the red areas compared to the day before).

2. I knew she was heading into an area with dry air to her north and west (as seen in the water vapour imagery - she was less 'circular' and a bit more ragged on her western side).

3. She was moving north and over cooler water - not just the sea surface, but the depth of water that was warmer than 26 deg C had also almost vanished, so anything she churned up to gain energy wasn't going to be enough to sustain her.

4. The wind shear had picked up - and we see that today as well because the clouds are streaming off to the north.

The one reason I thought she may take a while to get off that cat 3/4 ledge is because her circulation (vorticity - science!) was still strong throughout the troposphere (science!), which means she had still got some oomph (technical term ;-)) to her. 

And that brings me to a <Science Alert!>.  Woohoo! :-)

<Science Alert!> The troposphere. Our atmosphere is divided into layers – like a delicious trifle or seven-layer dip or lasagna (depending on what country you are from). In each layer the air temperature either increases with height or decreases with height. The troposphere is one of these layers. It is the lowest section of our atmosphere and extends up from the earth (ground zero if you like) to about 15-16km in the equatorial regions, and to about 8km in the polar regions of the planet. This is the layer of the atmosphere we live in, this is the layer we breathe. All our 'weather' essentially occurs in the troposphere. The troposphere is defined by decreasing air temperature with increasing height. You would know this if you climbed a mountain. Or the easier option, of course, is to just look at pictures of mountains and see the snow at the top (known as the ‘Flat Florida Option’). ;-) So, looking at the infrared imagery, it measures the tops of the cloud temperatures and so colder they are, the stronger the storm. 

The top of the troposphere is called the tropopause. Strong tropical storms have clouds that reach as high as the tropopause - and in a few very strong cases, they can extend even higher into the next layer up - into the stratosphere, which is the layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere. The stratosphere is defined by air temperature increasing with height. The ozone hole is in the stratosphere. The top of the stratosphere is around 50km height and is marked by the stratopause. And the layer above that is mesosphere, where air temperature decreases with height again... and so we go on until we get to space...<End Science Alert!>

Some last minute notes:

- Please do heed your local emergency managers. 
- If you get a lot of rain and wind, and go out after it has passed, be very wary of downed power lines in water. 

- If you are in a flood zone, evacuate. If you are not in a flood zone, then find a place to shelter away from windows if the wind picks up. Water is the biggest cause of loss of life in Tropical Storms, not the wind. 

- Don't go surfing... although I know that's a silly thing to say to the surfers I know! :-) 

- Be safe, enjoy the ice cream!

That's it for the Pacific... in the Atlantic, I see they have Tropical Depression Six... it looks like it will fizzle out in the Atlantic, so I'm not going to bother. I'll keep an eye on the crayon artwork that Mother Nature has produced over there though just in case... 

Toodle pip until tomorrow!
J. 

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Hurricane Hilary: August 18, Update A

With Hurricane Hilary out there and still heading in this direction, I've started going through my hurricane checklist... two lychee martinis later, I'm now onto the ice cream which, may I say, is quite delicious. If you are a regular reader, you may be wondering where the wine went... me too! ;-)

Before we get to what else is on my checklist, what's going on with Hilary? As expected, she intensified to a mid-size cat 4 earlier today (winds got to 145mph - cat 4 range is 130-156), and also as expected, she is slowly starting to weaken - she is a bit weaker now and is back to being a borderline cat 3/cat 4 storm with winds of 130mph, central pressure of 948mb. 

The outer bands are over Mexico:

But it's mostly rainfall at the moment, not too overly stormy (technical term ;-)). Generally, I see that the convection (rainfall) has decreased a bit and, more interestingly, the west side is not as robustly round as it was compared to the imagery from yesterday:

This is because there is dry air to the north and west, but also because there is some wind shear - this is what I was hoping to see today. Long may that continue! So what do these satellite images mean and where do you find them? I think it's time for a double feature of a <Technical AND Forecasting Alert!>. Lucky you! 

<Technical AND Forecasting Alert!> Satellite Imagery: I mainly use three sorts of satellite images: visible (geocolor), water vapour (spelled with a ‘u’ of course ;-), and infrared. To access these, go to this NOAA website: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/index.php. Click on the tab marked 'Storms' at the top, and the storm you are interested in the drop down menu. That page should load up with the Geocolor satellite imagery - the visible imagery... it is what you would see if you took a colour photo. Best used during daylight hours of course! ;-) This is useful to see the full extent of the outer bands. 

The water vapour image is also pretty obvious…it shows how much water vapor there is in the atmosphere. To find these, on the same page, on the left panel, click the tab labeled 'Channel Loops' (usually with the name of the storm as well). Bands 8, 9, and 10 are the water vapour at different levels in the atmosphere (high, middle, and low). Living in LA, of course I like looking at the moving pictures... the animation loop or animated GIF in the list of options in each channel section. The yellow/orange/brown areas are dry air (think of parched desert colours) and any other colour indicates some amount of water vapor, with green being a lot (think of well watered lawns... just like ours will be in a couple of days!). This is what the mid-atmospheric level water vapour looks like for Hilary at the moment:

You can see the dry air to the north and west quite clearly. Dry air inhibits the storm from intensifying, and an area of humidity and water vapor helps a storm to keep going. To toggle between different water vapour channels from this page, above the image, on the left side of the screen you will see a drop down menu (next to 'Band'). 

My favourite is the infrared satellite imagery because not only does it show where the storm is, but it also gives us an indication of how strong it is and what sort of weather we have. To get to these, you can pick Band 11 - called cloud-top phase (or cloud top IR).

The colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the cloud (which is what the satellite sees). It gets colder the higher you get in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere - I'll talk about the troposphere tomorrow). So we can tell from cloud top temperature how deep (high up) the clouds are and therefore how strong the convection is! The red colours are very big high clouds with the coldest temperatures and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. The redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection, the stronger the storm. My general rule of thumb (having seen these images and lived under them at the same time) is that blue and green areas are mostly clouds, with some very heavy rainfall in the green areas. But as you get to the orange and red, you get thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (especially in the red/dark gray areas). <End Technical and Forecasting Alert!>

Back to Hilary... she is clearly being impacted by dry air and wind shear, and as she continues to move north, she will be moving over cooler water and also interacting more with land, all of which will lead to a continuing steady decrease in strength. But she is still a robust storm and that eye is a beauty, showing us that the circulation is still very strong, and I agree with the NHC that she will be a hurricane when she clips the Baja peninsula - I expect she will be a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2:

She's currently at 19.7N, 112.7W heading NNW at 13mph, which is a pretty good clip for a hurricane. 

As it's a Friday evening, I'll throw in another <Forecasting Alert!> just for you for fun! 

<Forecasting Alert!> Watches and Warnings: You may have noticed that the colour of the coastline in the track chart above has changed from yesterdays lovely, fluffy, spring-like pinks and yellows, to todays bold and dark blues and reds. This is because these regions have changed from a 'Watch' (the fluffy spring colours) to a 'Warning' (the dark bold colours).

A Watch means those conditions may occur in those areas... but then again, they may not. 

A Warning means that those conditions WILL occur in those areas within the next 36 hours. 

A Tropical Storm Warning means you should expect winds of 39-73 mph within the next 36 hours, and a Hurricane Warning means you should expect winds of 74 mph or higher in the next 36 hours. <End Forecasting Alert!> 

So even if the center of the storm hasn't reached the Baja peninsula, you can see that the winds will start to pick up on Sunday ahead of the storm. 

In case you need any hints on supplies (for Greg M. in San Diego), here is my general list... 

- water
- batteries and flashlight

- first-aid kit

- full tank of gas in the car (or petrol if you are like me) 

- canned food and non-electric can opener

- sunscreen

- insect repellant

- hand-held fan

- candles and matches

- fully charged smart phone and laptops

- batteries for the radio (if you have one)

- two tubs of ice cream (different flavours to avoid boredom)

- some ice cream cones (optional)

- twelve bottles of wine (mostly red – no point getting too many white if there is no power for the fridge to cool it in!),  

- a non-electronic wine bottle opener

- fixings for lychee martinis (for the fruit - very healthy)

- good books to read

- cheese

- bags of PG Tips in a ziploc bag

- more ice cream (doubles up as a source of water). 

As a storm approaches, you will need to start the day by eating up the ice cream... just in case the power goes out of course. ;-) 

More tomorrow (after I've been shopping! :-)). 

Toodle pip!
J. 

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

Definitely Not the Start of the 2023 Hurricane Season! August 17: Hurricane Hilary, Update A

Hello my friends! I know, I know, this is not the start of the 2023 Hurricane Season! I haven't forgotten you, but I was a bit busy with wotnots and ice cream, so I came up with a cunning plan... 

Yes, I was definitely marching with oodles of ill-deserved confidence... my cunning plan was to retire this year (from the blog, not in general)! I didn't think anyone would notice... after all, the NHC is doing so much better these days (well done, chaps) and even I defer to their track in the last 24 hours of landfall these days. 

But, apparently, Mother Nature had other plans... if I won't go to the hurricanes, they will come to me, even in dry southern California. So, here I am. And here you are. Welcome back! :-) And if this is your first time joining me, there are a few fun and very intelligent and noteworthy pointers and reminders about this blog.

Before that though... please meet Hurricane Hilary, the 6th hurricane in the East Pacific this year...

She is now a major cat 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph (cat 3 range: 111-129mph), central pressure of 952mb - almost a cat 4 storm. She's at 16.7N, 110 W, heading WNW at 14mph. The current track shows that she will make landfall in northern Baja/southern California over the weekend, with the center passing anywhere in that cone - but she's a big storm so the effects will be felt ahead of her and outside the cone. And as this is desert territory, a bunch of rain could mean some flooding is about to happen (my wellies and umbrella are ready!).  She is expected to make a NW turn tomorrow to stay on that track - that's one thing to watch for tomorrow. 

Her circulation is quite strong throughout the lower atmosphere (the troposphere - I'll explain this jargon tomorrow) and she is a good looking storm with a beautiful, unwavering eye - I agree with the NHC on the strong cat 3, close to cat 4, strength:

We know she is getting stronger because her convection (rainfall) is increasing (strong convection is represented by the more solid and dark red areas in this satellite image): 

Parts of Central America, including Mexico, are already getting a few drops of rain - and some is accompanied by thunder I expect (the red areas).  

The reason she strengthened is because: (1) she is over some very warm water with the sea surface warmer than 28.5 deg C (tropical storms need sea surface temperatures of at least 26 deg C to keep going); (2) the upper ~50-75 m of water under her at the moment is warmer than 26 deg C which means she is churning up warm water to sustain herself; (3) she's in an area of very little wind shear; and, (4) she is in a region of high water vapor. I expect she will get a bit stronger - perhaps reaching a cat 4 soon. 

However, as she moves north and closer to Baja, she should start to slowly weaken (from a strong cat 3/cat 4) because: (1) the sea surface starts to get cooler and drops below 26 deg somewhere near southern-mid Baja (around where she clips the peninsula in the track image above), so she will be churning up cooler water; (2) there is a bit of drier air to her northwest in the lowest level of the atmosphere; and, (3) as she gets closer to land, some of the energy will start to leave her. The one thing I don't see yet is an increase in wind shear and this is one thing I will also be looking for tomorrow. 

That's all on Hilary for today. Meanwhile, as I'm here, what's been happening in the Atlantic? Well, it's been pretty quiet so far - but remember, it can be a quiet season and it only needs one major storm to make it a tough season! The classic example is Hurricane Andrew, the first storm of 1992, a cat 5 that went over the Bahamas and hit Miami in late August of that year. 

So far the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico has had 4 relatively small (and maybe almost non-existent in some cases) storms: 

TS Arlene - pretty much a non-starter in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, but it was nice of her to welcome in the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season on June 1. 

TS Brett - the second storm in June, he turned into a strong Tropical Storm as he passed over the windward islands of the Caribbean and fizzled after that.

TS Cindy - overlapped with Brett, but as a weaker storm, she avoided his Caribbean turf and just enjoyed a few days at the end of June tootling around in the mid-Atlantic.  

Hurricane Don - he was just plain confused. He was chasing his own tail in the mid-Atlantic in July, was officially upgraded from a Tropical Storm to Hurricane for about 12 hours, and that was it. 

There are a few blobs and blobettes out there, in the eastern and mid-Atlantic, that I'll keep an eye on, but that's all for now on the Atlantic. 

Lastly (finally, I hear you say!) here are the rules of the blog, expertly cut and pasted from a previous year (yes, this is old school my peeps!)...

1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms and whatever else pops into my head that may fit those three words (with some imagination and possibly after a lychee martini or two). It is just what I think.

2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned. There will be random letters in words when you least expect them. But less random than if this was in Welsh. Or Irish (Gaelic). 

3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know. I know there's an AI device out there that can take over and make this into the masterpiece of writing I can only dream of, but this is a Chat GPT-Free Zone.

4. I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, The IT Crowd. And other Funny Stuff.

5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. I can also continue to cut and paste from previous entries (I’m very talented!) so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (always thrilling!), please ask me about it.

6. I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all perfectly acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately, they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a soothing cup of tea instead.

7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic (or elsewhere in the world) is exciting to some but, unless I'm bored, I'll usually write about those that I think are important.

8. Despite what you may have heard, I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!

9. I confess I used to be a twit - but now I don't know what to call it that doesn't make it sound like a placeholder letter. However, I am on twitter (@jyovianstorm) as it will always be known to me. I will post these updates on Twitter/placeholder letter, but I’ll also tweet about storms in other basins, my job (including live dives exploring the deep sea – ooh, ahh, you never know what you will see!), my movie, other people’s jobs, other people's movies, cool science, brilliant people, goofy things etc. so if you want to catch up between updates, that’s might be a place to lurk (at least for now).

10. I will refer to ice cream, wine, cheese, cups of tea, jaffa cakes, and lychee martinis fairly frequently. To preemptively answer your questions, I do eat and drink other things for a balanced diet. For example, prawn cocktail crisps, fruit & nut chocolate, water, G&Ts.

Sigh. Guess I'll retire next year. ;-) Now, where's that mint choc chip...

Toodle pip!

J. 

Blogs archived at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

Twitter @JyovianStorm

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DISCLAIMER:

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.