Thursday, September 14, 2023

Hurricanes Lee and Margot: September 13th, Update A

Hurricane SlowLEE (teehee) is finally approaching land, so I thought I better pop in and say a few words. And also, we have just crossed the statistical mid-way mark of the hurricane season (Sept 10th)... 

Wo-oah, we're halfway there, wo-oah... 

(and if you are like me, you will never sing the original lyrics to that song again! :-)).

Lee been a been moving at a bit of a sedate pace as storms go - he was named on the 5th of Sept, and looked a bit ferocious on the 7th when he was officially and briefly a cat 5 hurricane,  but dropped down cat 4 on the 8th and he's been weakening since then, so he is now a cat 2 storm with winds of 105mph (cat 2 range: 96-110mph), central pressure of 953mb. He's not as robust looking as he was earlier in his life:

There is still some convection (rain and thundery weather) but it's not as evenly spread as one would see in a hurricane, but he does clearly have an eye and his circulation is throughout the troposphere so he is definitely a hurricane. He is expected to decrease in intensity and there are many reasons to think this will be the case. First, there is some wind shear ahead of him - you can see the clouds to the north streaming off into the yonder distance. Second, he is also about to move over cooler sea surface waters of around 26 deg C, with only the upper 25-50m of water at that temperature. And third, the air to his north and west is dry. 

His outer bands are already over Bermuda - mostly just cloud and rain - and tomorrow will be a bit breezy, but it should be quite nice by the weekend. Perfect for golf and sailing if you are in Bermuda, but maybe not advisable as 'fun activities' in Maine and Newfoundland this weekend... he's currently at 28.0N, 67.7W heading N at 9mph...

He should be a Tropical Storm by the time he gets to Canada - but a strong storm so get ready up there! There is a front moving across the eastern US which will meet with Lee. The double impact of this is that (a) it is why he will curve to the east and (b) it will add some energy, so although he may not have too much rainy and thundery weather by Saturday evening, he will be a blustery. 

I'll keep an eye on Lee in case he does anything funny in which case I'll pop back, but the NHC forecast seems about right. For those who are in the path, remember to listen to your emergency managers!

Now, there is another hurricane out there... Hurricane Margot. She's at 35.2N, 40.5W heading N at an even slower 7 mph. Winds are 85mph which makes her a cat 1 storm (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), central pressure is 972mb. However, she is a bit confused and going round in circles...

So, of course, I won't be saying too much more about her either.

Be careful and Toodle pip for now! 


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and local weather service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.