Saturday, October 18, 2008

TS Omar: October 17 Update B

I can't help it. I have to say this... there's absolutely NO WAY the storm
I saw in the satellite images at about 4pm this afternoon turned into a
hurricane by 5pm, as said in the advisory issued by the NHC. And if it
did, it miraculously rapidly deteriorated again because it's back to being
a Tropical Storm now (max 65 mph winds)... and all done without changing
the estimated central pressure or gaining any convection/rain. Amazing.

You know it's not really forecasting if you write 'ALTHOUGH OMAR HAS
REGAINED CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH...THIS INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED" if you already know it's not a hurricane...of course it's
going to be short-lived!

And we were in such good agreement with this system until then (relatively
speaking). Oh well.

As I'm here, a quick update - he's weaker, at 32N, 52.5W, and has even
less convection than before. He still has some circulation so if you put
him in some corn fields he wouldn't water them for you, but you could get
some very nice crop circles...

Right, this time I really won't check what's going on... well not until
tomorrow anyway ;)

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Friday, October 17, 2008

TS Omar: October 17 Update A

Our friend Omar is still holding on as a tropical storm. Earlier today
the NHC said he had intensified and had winds of 70mph (TS: 39-73mph),
central pressure 987mb, but in the last few hours it looks like he's
fallen apart again. There are light clouds but no rainfall anywhere near
his center, and very little rain elsewhere in the system. He still has
good circulation so it's easy to see his center on a satellite image,
which is currently located at about 30.5N, 54W. Water temperatures
underneath are much cooler now, around 25-26 deg C, and there is
considerable southwesterly wind shear (from the southwest), so I don't
see him intensifying up to a hurricane really. He's moving NE at
35mph. All is well.

If he does something wonky like... er... making a u-turn, I'll send out
another update. Otherwise I might not bother tomorrow. It's the weekend.
I have wine to drink. And music to listen to - free Florida Orchestra
Concert in the Park in St. Pete for those of you who aren't watching the
Tampa Rays vs. Boston Red Sox. Game. Oh, and of course... Go Rays! (I do
like their beautiful dark blue colors :)).

Toodle-oo :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Tropical Storm Omar: October 16 Update C

As expected, he's been downgraded to a TS in the 11pm advisory - although
they say he probably became a TS a few hours earlier. Winds are near
70mph, central pressure estimated to be 987mb. I'll go along with that cos
I'm feeling lazy :) Current location near 24N, 58W, he's moving along at a
fast 25 mph in a NE direction into the Atlantic... that's right mister,
you better be running away. He's not looking very tropical at all now.

More tomorrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Omar: October 16 Update B

It's a sunnier day today. After running through the Anegada Passage (the
water between the VIs and the northern leeward islands) as a cat 3, Omar
is now falling apart very quickly in the Atlantic because of the
combined effects of wind shear and that front, which has dry air behind
it that is being entrained into the system. He is currently centered at
20.2N, 61.3W - easy to see as there is very little convection near his
center of circulation because it's been pushed north and east.
Officially winds are near 85 mph (central pressure 980mb) which makes
him a mid-sized cat 1 (range: 74-95mph). I wouldn't be too surprised if
he's a Tropical Storm by the end of the day. Convection has decreased
overall.

I got this early this morning from St. Thomas:
"We got what we hoped for and we were prepared for the
worst!..........center was indeed well east of St. Croix. We have power
and internet and winds were probably 40-45 tops...piece of cake for St.
Thomas. thanks for all of the great meterological support and
communication interaction, it is nice to have your own private
meterologist."

Aww thanks. :) No worries. Let's hope we don't have to communicate about
storms any more this year (at least).

And also from our reporter on St. Thomas re St. Criox, which was
probably the closest to the eye of all the islands:
"St. Croix....Reports are that a few trees were down, no structural
damage to buildings, and some power lines down. They must have been very
surprised that the center missed them. The big question is how did St.
Martin, Barbuda, Anguilla and St. Barts fare?"

And from the research vessel out there, yesterday they had 12 feet
swells - and that's when they were heading north of Bermuda, before
heading south... I got this yesterday afternoon:
"Still lumpy as prison porridge out here. Still about 4 hours from the
first station, CTD down to 3000m then we head south and a much
comfortable ride. The ship is the RV Atlantic Explorer. It's about 19
miles long and 3 miles wide. A more realistic figure ~160 feet long and
35 feet fat. Dinner was nice. There is another Aussie on this cruise. he
started to eat lunch, turned pale and ran from the galley."

Aah... the adventures of sea-travel. I think those swells were probably
from the front instead of the storm. A CTD is a
Conductivity-Temperature-Depth sensor - it measures the water salinity
and temperature (in case you couldn't tell that part from the name) at
various water depths.

And from the ship today:
"We're at the BATS site now and heading more or less in a straight line
to PR. We're going to duck across to the PR trench and do a deep deep
cast... The seas are behind us now so a pleasant ride. Actually we're
starting to look good for the cruise. Few white caps and a swell 4-5ft
with a pretty long period b/w swell."

(The BATS site doesn't stand for 'location where the bats accumulate',
but for the Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Station, which is in the
Atlantic near 31N, 64W).

So it looks like they'll be o.k. Luckily for that Aussie.

Until the next update later,
Ciao
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Omar: October 16 Update A

Quick update: Omar's eye has just passed clearly east of St. Croix and
looks like it won't hit any of the islands as it is now moving west of the
northern leeward islands. This is the best scenario we could have hoped
for with the strongest winds avoiding land. The VIs remain on the western
side of the storm. The NHC upgraded him to a weak Cat 3 (range: 111-130
mph) in the 11pm advisory, with winds of 115 mph and a central pressure of
967mb. Hurricane force winds of 74 mph or higher extend out 35 miles from
the center. Convection is still strong. He's zooming along in a NE
direction at 20mph now and will be in the Atlantic in about 2-3 hours.

Until tomorrow (or rather later today)... really this time.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Hurricane Omar: October 15 Update B

The storm is now beginnig to cover the VIs. The strongest part of the
convection (thunderstorms, tornadoes etc) has reached the eastern PR, the
US VIs, the British VIs and Anguilla... but the center has not yet reached
the islands - a few more hours to go. The center of circulation is around
17N, 65W.

He's now a cat 2 with winds of ~105 mph (wind range: 96-110mph), central
pressure 971 mb. That's at ground level. So at higher altitidues on these
islands, they are looking at higher winds.

There are two little (very little) bright spots in this:
1. He has picked up forward speed to 17mph because he is moving between
that low pressure front on his left, moving him counterclockwise, and a
high pressure to his right, moving him clockwise (draw that on a piece of
paper and you'll see the two factors).
2. Hurricane force winds are still confined to about 15 miles from the
eye. The eye looks like it'll pass close to St. Croix, but there's still a
chance it could pass between the islands - it's too close for me to
assess.

Not much more to say today. If I hear anything from the islands I'll send
it out in another email because I know a number of family and friends are
checking in. Let's see how things are tomorrow.

Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Omar and TD 16: October 16 Update A

Hurricane Omar:

He's a little stronger cat 1 this morning with winds near 80mph (cat 1:
74-95mph), central pressure 984mb. The center of circulation is near
14.9N, 67.5W and he's officially heading NE at 7mph.

The forecast is not looking pretty for the US Virgin Islands at the
moment I'm afraid. The center of the cone track currently takes the eye
directly over St. Criox as a very strong cat 1/weak cat 2 storm.
However, there's a battle raging in the atmosphere regarding his track
between the front and the storm, with the front trying to push eastward
and the storm trying to move northward - hence it's northeast motion.
Who is stronger? Normally I would say that within 24 hours of landfall
the forecast track is good, but in this case given the complication of
the front, the eye could still pass west or east of St. Criox and I
would really not focus on that center of the cone track but keep an eye
(pun :)) on the entire cone which extends from the eastern tip of PR to
the British VIs at least.

The latest report I have from in St. Thomas:
"I will try to stay in touch as long as the power holds up and I do not
fold up from the preparation exhaustion. At 4am I can report that there
has been no rain during the night as the outermost bands are on us. The
NHC has not altered the track of Omar since 5 pm on the
14th...........looks like the center should hit St. Croix and head into
the Atlantic thru the Anegada passage, which is threading the needle.
Anywhere the eye or center hits will most likely be devastated as all of
the islands have height and the winds have erratic effect as they climb
the hills. We will not even discuss the tournados twirling throughout
the entire storm. The ground is so saturated that the wind with this
hurricane will take down a lot of trees. . . in 1995 hurricane Marylyn
did a direct hit on St Thomas and approached with winds barely above
Tropical storm status and we were devasted to the point of the island
looking like a nuclear bomb had gone off, not a leaf on a tree. From a
seasoned (not brave, I am here because I cannot run and believe me, I
would) storm participant my motto is HOPE FOR THE BEST ....PREPARE FOR
THE WORST........(time and weather permitting)."

I think you all know that the higher you are in a storm, the stronger
the winds. As our reporter said, all the islands are mountainous, so
although the winds at the surface are 80mph, making it a cat 1, even if
this storm doesn't intensify further that could still translate to cat 2
winds at altitude. Hurricane force winds extend out 15 miles from the
center still, but the strong convection continues over a much larger
area, as do the tropical storm force winds.

I'll send out another update later on Hurricane Omar.

TD16:
This is still a struggling system, although it continues to dump lots of
rain over central America. It's moving west at 3mph, winds are near
30mph, central presure 1005mb, and the center is somewhere around 16N,
84.2W - just just on the northern edge of Honduras. Actually, the center
could be over land, it's difficult to tell because it is such a
disorganized system. No convection near the center, so they are keeping
it as a TD. It will continue to skirt the northern edge of Honduras as
it moves westward. The rain may cause mudslides. The wind is not too
much, so that won't be the damaging factor here.

Unless this develops, I won't send out another update on this system.

Later then,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Omar and TD16: October 14 Update B

Hurricane Omar:
He continued to intensify this afternoon and evening, and with little wind
shear it was indeed a 'little' faster than the official forecast this
morning. At the 11pm advisory he was upgraded to a hurricane. I agree with
this upgrade.

Currently his eye is at 14.3N, 68.1W and is moving NE at 6mph. The eye is
expected to reach the islands on Wednesday night. Officially the maximum
sustained winds are near 75mph (central pressure 979mb), extending out 15
miles from the eye, so he's a very weak cat 1 at the moment (cat 1 range:
74-95 mph). I think he might be a little stronger than that now, but not
a cat 2. The eye, although present, is not very clear.

Even though the wind is not as strong as it could be, the convection is
really strong with this storm – we're talking torrential rain, strong
thunderstorms and all the bells and whistles that come along with that. At
the moment the worst of this activity is over water, but the islands have
had some rain. I got this report from St. Thomas this evening:

"Am waiting for the 8pm from NHC and it is POURING HERE AND NO
ELECTRCITY…par for STT . . . Still a lot of prep to do as our brains do
not want to believe this storm is coming..........bye for now due to no
power."

The front coming down from the north is now over Hispaniola… I'm not sure
how much farther south and east it will dig. The area of strong convection
is fairly broad and should reach Puerto Rico and the VIs in a few hours –
it'll be a very soggy and er.. breezy... ride for that entire area
regardless of exactly where the eye passes.

TD 16:
Although there is still some circulation, convection remains disorganized.
This blobette is struggling against the combined effects of interactions
with land and having the moist air dragged away eastwards along that same
front, towards Omar (helping Omar). Nicaragua has had quite a lot of rain
from this system though, and Honduras, Belize and Mexico look like they've
had some intermittent heavy rain showers. Given how disorganized the
convection is and the factors working against it, it may not make TS
status – although the NHC are saying that if it stays over water then it
may become a TS tomorrow. We'll see how things develop tomorrow.

The center is currently at around 16.2N, 83.8W and it's moving NW at 6mph.
Winds are near 30mph, central pressure 1005mb. Track is still the
Honduras/Belize area.

And look what the NHC posted about keeping this as a TD for now: "THE
SYSTEM STILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT…"

I'm happy someone else thinks storms need to have strong convection near
the center as well as the strong winds. I hope they remember this tomorrow
if they decide to upgrade to TS. Can we downgrade old storms retroactively
I wonder. I know they can upgrade retroactively.

Well my friends, that's it for today. Tomorrow should be interesting I
suppose. For those in the VIs and surrounding islands, STAY SAFE (although
you won't be reading this if you don't have power!). And for those going
on the cruise tomorrow, STAY SAFE as well. Let me know what you encounter.

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

TS Omar and TD16: October 14 Update A

TS Omar:
As we all expected, he's now a Tropical Storm (and actually looks like
one :) ). The wind shear is decreasing, and the strong convective
activity seems to be centered closer to the center of circulation now,
at around 13.8N, 68.9W. Central pressure is 989mb, and wind speeds are
near 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph) - this is all information from a plane
that is currently in the system and hasn't finished investigating. I
would not be surprised if he's just a bit stronger than that - the
convection is really strong. I don't think he's a hurricane yet though,
because I don't see any hint of an eye. He's currently lumbering along
at 5mph in a Southeast direction.

The forecast still calls for him to head Northeast, just a little later
than previously expected. Later today they expect him to make an
eastward turn, then a northeastward turn. This will take him east of PR
and the VIs. The intensity forecast still says he'll be a hurricane by
Thursday morning shortly after exiting the Caribbean into the Atlantic.
In general I'd agree with his intensification, but the timing is
difficult to assess. It depends on the wind shear. Water temperatures
are still warm enough to help him along - 29-31 deg C - and there's very
little interaction with land.

I still don't have good wind information or pressure field information,
so I'll just use what I have - the satellite imagery and my crystal
ball, and for good measure I'll toss a coin every once in a while. :)

That low pressure front I mentioned yesterday is now passing over the
southern Bahamas and still heading south, so it may remain intact as it
gets into the Caribbean after all. The track depends on where he'll be
when the front gets to him and carries him off - given that the front is
still well defined, the forecast track shift eastward seems reasonable.
As you may remember, in the northern hemisphere storms (and winds) move
clockwise around high pressure systems, and counter-clockwise around
lows... which would be indicated by his east and then northeast forecast
motion.

Update from St. Thomas: " having the center east of us is far better
wind wise than being in the northeast quadrant with bulk of winds west
of us as it passes...........looks like PR will be spared as
well..........the winds are great for cleaning out cobwebs but leave
spidy alone now!"

And for you guys in Bermuda about to embark on the research cruise - if
you could just stay behind the low front, you'll be more or less o.k....
it'll still be windy though. At least you won't gain any weight. ;)

TD 16:
Meanwhile on the other side of the Caribbean ... the blobette in the
western Caribbean is trying to look fierce. But it is very close to
Honduras so it's not very likely to develop into anything more than a
Tropical Storm. The circulation is good, and is centered at 15.6N,
83.2W, and it's heading WNW at 5mph. Winds are near 30mph, central
pressure 1005mb. However, the convection is not as strong as Omar's
despite it being over warmer water temperatures of 30-32 deg C - it's
interacting with land. They are sending in a plane to investigate this
system later today. Satellite winds look like they are about 46 mph, so
I think it's already strong enough to be a Tropical Storm (Paloma is the
next one).

The track takes it generally westward, along the northern coast of
Honduras and into Belize. There's a chance it could make landfall in
Honduras. In either case, this will be more of a rain event than a wind
event. Hopefully not a great rain event either as that can be a mudslide
prone area.

More later,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Monday, October 13, 2008

TD 15 and other Blobs and Blobettes: October 13 Update B

Things no-one expects:
1. The Spanish Inquisition (Monty Python)
2. Jar-Jar Binks (Star Wars/George Lucas)
3. A Tampa Bay pro-baseball team in the play-offs against the Boston Red Sox
4. FOUR blobs and blobettes to pop up in about 24 hours in October when
the hurricane season is, supposedly, in the home stretch.

Fortunately, we are done with blobette Nana. There is another little blob
just to her south, way out there in the Atlantic, but that doesn't look
like it will amount to much either. There is not much circulation, and the
convection is disorganized. So those two I will ignore. Just like that.
Poof. Gone. I wish.

That leaves the Caribbean. My my, what a year they've had. And now they
have TD15 in the eastern Caribbean, and so no-one is left out, a blobette
in the western Caribbean. Of the two, TD15 has the leading edge in terms
of organization (barely).

TD15:
A plane was just in that system and has not yet found tropical storm force
winds, so the NHC are keeping it as a TD. However, TS watches etc have
been posted on the islands and I expect it to become TS Omar tomorrow. In
this, I'm in agreement with the NHC. There is a lot of rain and
thunderstorm activity in this system, predominantly to the east and north
of the center of circulation. The center is stationary at 14.6N, 69.4W.
Winds are still near 35 mph, central pressure has dropped to 1001mb.

As you know from previous storm updates (e.g. Fay), stationary system
tracks are (in my humble opinion) a little trickier than moving storms,
because as the storm sits still, the pressure fields around it continue to
evolve. And, of course the intensity depends on the track. The current
forecast center of cone track takes this system right over Puerto Rico on
Weds. evening as a Tropical Storm, and then makes it a hurricane in the
Atlantic by Thursday.

My data access problems continue. Alas, the wind information is still not
available because they are switching to a new processing machine. Bad
timing indeed.

However, we can look out for certain signs. At the moment the center of
circulation is removed from the main convection because of westerly wind
shear. If those two begin to coalesce before it moves much, then there's a
chance it will become stronger than a TS because wind shear will be
reduced, and it will have plenty of warm water to move over. On the other
hand, if the storm remains disorganized and stays where it is then it will
cool the waters underneath and may weaken a tad.

As for the track, I still don't have good enough information on that
either – at least not from the pressure fields. But we can look for signs
in other places. If you look at the satellite water vapor movie, you'll
see that a low-pressure front moved over central Florida today (and very
nice and cooling it was too) and is indicated by the dry/moist air. I
think the model tracks expect that to move south and 'pick up' the storm –
hence the forecast north-east motion tomorrow and on Wednesday. If the
storm stays stationary, there's a good chance that it won't interact with
the front as previously forecast. At the moment (to me anyway) it doesn't
look like the front will get south enough to meet this stationary little
storm, so I'm not as sure about this NE turn towards PR/VIs. But you can
all keep an eye on that interaction. Tricky. Stationary storms. Very
tricky.

(To see satellite info, instructions are in the satellite image primers:
part one in here
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-edouard-august-4-update-b.html.
and part two in here
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-edouard-august-5-update.html)

I got this note from our reporter on the ground in St. Thomas earlier today:
"We got plenty of rain here yesterday from this TD system....starting at
around a six pack and a half of Coronas (translated that is around 5:30pm)
and continuing into the night.......heavy rain. I cannot believe that this
darned thing is now going to come back at us from the southwest and travel
northeast and be a hurricane.........now I have to scramble to get
ready......."

And speaking of signs, here's one… I got this from our reporter on Bermuda:
"Hiho, we sail to Puerto Rican on Wed. A seven day cruise. Should I make
my will out or will I be safe?"

Oh dear. I suppose that research cruise during Hurricane Bertha was just
too easy...

Western Caribbean Blob:
There's some circulation and some convection, but not as much as in TD15.
Central America: Expect Rain. Actually, almost the entire Caribbean can
expect clouds and rain from one system or t'other this week. I've blabbed
on about blobs enough for now, so I'll write about this tomorrow.

Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Depressions Nana and 15: October 13 Update A

TD Nana:

As expected, in the wee small hours of the morning she was downgraded to a
Tropical Depression (by the 5am advisory in fact).

In the good old days, unless there happened to be a ship out there, it's
quite likely that she wouldn't even have been noticed. A question I get
asked quite often is how do we know about old storms before we had
satellites or planes? The official records date back to 1851, and are
based on anecdotal information - if there was a ship that got caught in
one (and survived) or if one made landfall in an inhabited place etc. So
obviously the further back in time we go the less certain we are of the
total number of storms in any given year or their tracks or intensities.
This makes it very tricky when we talk of long term trends in hurricanes -
the data doesn't stretch back reliably far enough.

In 1933 for example (pre satellites and pre-planes), the records show
there were 21 named storms in the Atlantic! I bet they were thinking that
the sky was falling... at least the global economy was solid back then
though... er... hmmm...hang on a second... ;)

Back to Nana... she's not got much convection, circulation is easy to see
in the satellite images because she's relatively cloud free, winds are
around 35 mph, and she's moving WNWish at around 8mph around a High
pressure system in the Atlantic, which is where she'll stay. Wind shear is
still strong.

Unless she decides to pull a fast one, this is my last entry on this system.

TD 15:

The Blob that was in the eastern Caribbean has now officially become TD
15. A plane is being sent into the system to investigate. I applaud the
forecaster for making the leap instead of waiting for reconnaisance plane
information. Bravo.

The center is at around 14.8N, 69.6W, and it's moving NW at a rapid (!!)
2mph. As I can stagger (under the influence of alcohol) faster than that,
I would call that pretty much stationary. Central pressure is 1005mb,
winds near 35mph (same as Nana at this point in time).

The forecast calls for this to be a hurricane in a couple of days, and
heading towards the PR - Virgin Islands area on Weds and then out into the
Atlantic. It looks like there are some strong thunderstorms passing
through that area already. Water temperatures are warm enough to sustain
this storm and there's not much dry air, so the inhibiting factor will be
the wind shear.

There is some wind shear from the south west and the convective activity
is, indeed, east and north-east of the center so this is not a very well
organized system yet. Alas, there seems to be a glitch and the full suite
of wind information has not been posted since yesterday - at least not in
the places I usually look. And a double whammy... I don't have high
resolution pressure fields to assess the track either. Bother. Bother.
Bother.

I'll try and find out what's going on (maybe they've finally cut me off?
;) ) and send out another update later.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 12, 2008

TS Nana & The Blob: October 12 Update A

TS Nana:

Hey, guess what...there's another one of those little blobettes out there
in the Atlantic. Yes, one of those "shouldn't really be a named system but
we'll give it one anyway because we've still got about half the alphabet
claiming unemployment". :)

The NHC issued their first advisory on TS Nana at 5pm this afternoon and
they forecast that she'll be downgraded to a Tropical Depression later
tonight. Still, it gives them something to do for the next few hours I
suppose.

The center of circulation is clearly visible because there are only very
light clouds in the area. It is at around 16.5N, 38.5W with winds near
40mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and a central pressure of about 1005mb. There
is some convection, but because of strong westerly (from the west) wind
shear the convection is east of the circulation, near 16.5N, 36W - that's
about 150 miles from the center of circulation! She's moving WNW at 7mph
and looks like she'll stay out in the Atlantic.

With the convection removed from the storm center, I don't think she
should have been named a TS. I think I mentioned this before - in addition
to vorticity (circulation) a tropical system should have convection close
to the center as well.

Water temperatures are warm enough (27-29 deg C) for her to develop, if
the wind shear decreases. But the forecast wind shear is supposed to
continue as it is for the next couple of days.


The Blob:
There's also a Blob in the Caribbean. Convection is pretty good with this
system, and although there is some circulation, it isn't very well defined
at the moment. It looks like PR/VIs etc might have got some rain today...
(and I hear there was an earthquake in that area as well yesterday?).
Water temps are 28-30 deg C. I'll write more on this if it develops
further.

By the way, the next few names are: Omar, Paloma and Rene. That should
cover us up to the 'pre-season forecast' number that someone is
desperately trying to get to I think.

More tomorrow.
Pip-pip... :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Tropical Storm Marco: October 7 Update A

Blink and you'll miss him. I know size isn't everything, but boy is he
small! Even the NHC took an alliterative turn yesterday and called him
Miniature Marco. They estimate tropical storm force winds extend out a
maximum whopping 15 miles from his center (if that).

There's very little circulation and not much in the way of strong
thunderstorm activity, making him more of a blob right now than a
tropical storm. I'm not even sure that Mexico will get much rain from
this system, even though he just made landfall and his center is inland
at 19.9N, 96.6W. The NHC currently have the wind speed at 65mph (998mb
central pressure), so according to them he is a mid-intensity TS (TS
range: 39-73 mph), but I think that's an overestimate. I don't see winds
higher than 50 mph. He's moving W at 8mph over land and will continue to
weaken as he goes.

Not much more to say about Marco really. He had a short innings and
tried to put up a good show. Speaking of innings and shows (*very*
subtle segue way huh? ;) )... "Go Rays" (I have to say that otherwise
I'll get thrown out of St. Pete, and besides, their stadium is a 10 min
bike ride from here).

As he's over land, this is my last entry on cute little Marco.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Monday, October 06, 2008

Tropical Depression 13: October 6 Update A

I know, you probably have other things on your mind today. Like money.
The election. Why the world is round. Where did the Dolphins really go
when they left Earth (Hitchikers Guide To The Galaxy). And other such
pressing issues of the day.

But just in case you run out of things to chat about, TD 13 formed from
a blob of clouds and stuff (technical term ;)) over the Bay of Campeche
earlier today and is at 19.2N, 94.4W. This blob is moving WNW near
10mph. Winds at the 1pm advisory were near 35 mph, central pressure
about 1007mb. A plane is investigating this at the moment. From the
satellite images, it looks like a Tropical Storm to me. A itsy bitsy one
though. There is some circulation and convection and water temperatures
are around 27-29 deg C down. Satellite winds look like they are about 40
mph.

So if the NHC agree, this will be TS Marco... going towards Mexico. I
think we'll agree with this one, as they also have it forecast to become
a TS before landfall. (Yes, I do agree with them sometimes you know ;) ).

I'll send out another update tomorrow, unless there's some "Breaking
News"... I can't remember the last time we had anything dramatic going
on though.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------