Caribbean Blobette: July 4, Update A

Happy 4th of July! As a special treat for you a blobette has been developing in the Caribbean. Isn't that nice? ;-) ('Blobette': my "technical term" for a collection of clouds and thunderstorms that may develop into a (she-name) tropical storm.)

I mention it because it's in the same area that the blob-that-became-Alex really began to kick up a fuss and there is some decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (lowest level of our atmosphere, more details here: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/06/caribbean-blob-june-25-update.html). At this location the water temperature is over 29 deg C, with a very deep layer of warm water (greater than 26.5 deg C) in the upper 100-125m of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical storms need water warmer than 26.5 deg C to develop, so ocean conditions are certainly ripe for further development. There is a little bit of wind shear in the atmosphere, which I think is the only thing keeping this as a blobette for now. It's moving WNW at about 15mph, towards the Yucatan Peninsula region.

I'll be keeping an eye on this one. The next name is Bonnie. Another update only if this blobette develops further.

An appropriate quote for today is by Abraham Lincoln:
"we, your forefathers, were brought forth upon a most excellent adventure conceived by our new friends, Bill... and Ted. These two great gentlemen are dedicated to a proposition which was true in my time, just as it's true today. Be excellent to each other. And... PARTY ON, DUDES!"
(from the classic documentary, 'Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure' ;-) ).

Have fun!
J.

Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------