Tropical Storm Bonnie: July 23, Update A

Quick lunchtime (my lunchtime) update via phone!

TS Bonnie has, indeed, been following a path that's been on the northern side of the cone, and is shortly going to arrive on the south east coast of Florida. She's obviously in a rush to get there and visit the NHC (in Miami) in person because she's moving at a very fast 18mph! The convection picked up as she began interacting with the Florida Current, but because of strong wind shear from the south,  most of the rain & thunder is on the northern side if the center of circulation. Free car wash for anyone in SE Florida! ;-)

Because of the shear, she's a weak system with max winds still at about 40mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and central pressure of 1008mb.  

I know there's a lot of concern about her getting into the Gulf, but at this point it doesn't look too bad. If she'd gone over the Keys, I'd be a bit more concerned. If I recall correctly, Florida and the Gulf in general has had equally severe, if not worse, weather since the oil spill started. Of course, now I've said this I'm reminded of Tropical Storm Fay, which actually intensified as she crossed southern Florida a couple of years ago. The thing to watch out for over the next few hours is how much the convection decreases as it moves across the state.

More later. Lunch done. Back to this real work lark. Don't forget your raincoats if you live in Florida, anywhere south of Orlando! And let me know what the weather is (and if you don't want me to post your comments, let me know that too!).

Later gators! (and er... now what was that other one...?) ;-)
J.

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Disclaimer: Same as on my website, but can't cut & paste on phone. Will do it later. Pay attention to your local emergency managers, the NHC, and NWS. I just do this for a hobby! ;-)
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