Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Western Atlantic Blobette: July 21, Update A

This blobette is having a bit of an identity crisis today and isn't looking quite so bonnie anymore. ;-) (puns always intended). As I thought, the wind shear and proximity to the islands of PR & Hispaniola took their toll and the NHC said the same thing this afternoon when they downgraded the percentage of formation from 70% to 60%.
The blobette still has some lower level circulation centered just north of Haiti and near the southern end of the Bahamas. But because of that wind shear, the convection is to the east and south - stretching from the Dominican Republic to the Windward Islands and including the Virgin Islands. I got this from Tom J. in St. Thomas yesterday afternoon: "we have had plenty of rain and very heavy at today. had to pump down the pool level twice today. expecting more flooding rain tonight and hope the following mosquitos are gentle...there will be millions after a rain like this. this system has vollyed north and south over us since Saturday...will it ever leave??  Still pouring with plenty of lightning and thunder...4pm and it looks like 8pm at night.....weird."  I think they finally saw the sun today. For about 5 minutes anyway.
Although this system is all over the place, it still has some pretty good low level circulation which means there's a small chance it could re-develop if it moves away from the bigger islands of Hispaniola and Cuba - but I'm not yet convinced that will happen. Also, although water temperatures are in the 29-30 deg C range, the wind shear is still looking strong. I (along with many others) will be keeping an eye on it, just in case it does something sneaky. For now, it's still a blobette that's trying really hard to be a grown-up storm (or at least a Tropical Depression!).
Until tomorrow!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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