Western Atlantic Blobette: July 20, Update A

Another bonnie attempt at forming Tropical Storm Bonnie is in the works right now. (I spent entire *seconds* thinking of that sentence - does it show? ;-))

This blobette is just north of Puerto Rico (PR) and appeared on my radar over the weekend. It brought some wellie-wearing weather to the Virgin Islands on Sunday - "our man on the ground", Tom J., in St. Thomas said they had horizontal rain on Sunday and it looks like they are still getting squally weather - third day in a row! Hope you have extra rain gear!

Waay back then it didn't really have much circulation, but that was a whole two days ago. It's really picked up since then and, in addition to the convection (heavy rain and thunderstorms) it now has some pretty good circulation (vorticity) in the lowest levels of the troposphere.

It's a bit too soon to say, but I'm not sure if this will become a big storm. It is certainly over waters warm enough to sustain a storm (surface temperatures are 28-30 deg C) and waters of 26.5 deg C+ can be found in the upper 50-75 m of the ocean. But it is close to the PR and Hispaniola islands and there is some pretty decent wind shear to the northern edge of this blobette, both factors which will slow down development. As usual, how much this develops very much depends on the track. If it stays over water then there's every chance of it getting stronger.

About the track. The NHC says it's moving WNW at 10mph and will do so for the next day or so. I'd agree with that. The good news is that it will be closer to Hispaniola, which will inhibit development. The bad news is that I expect Haiti will get a lot of rain, which usually results in landslides and they don't need that.

This is one to keep an eye on - there's a small chance it may end up in the eastern Gulf. Next update when something interesting happens (to the blobette... not to me!). ;-)

Ciao,
J.

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To New Readers: I'm sorry. Are you sure you don't want to watch reality tv instead? There's probably a really good one out there about watching grass grow or something. No? Well, I hope you've been suitably warned. If you have any questions about my fancy-schmancy scientific terminology (oo-aaah :-) ) or anything else about storms or whatever else I mention, please let me know. I like reading your questions ... and sometimes I've even been known to answer them! ;-)

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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