Monday, September 20, 2010

Hurricane Igor, Tropical Storm Julia, and the Atlantic Blobette: September 20, Update A

I hear that all is more-or-less ok in Bermuda after the storm. I know some parts of the island lost power during the night, but everyone survived and it looks like a lot of the clean up involves assorted bits of trees. I've included a pic or two of the post-storm leafy mess from Steve B. on the blog site (address below), but won't clog up email boxes so if you want a gander, pop over to the blog. No fallen trees or anything quite so dramatic. But I don't envy them the sweeping and raking!

Hurricane Igor:
He's still a hurricane, but winds are only 75mph so he's barely a cat 1 (range: 74-95mph). The NHC have had him at this level for a large chunk of the day. The latest advisory says he is beginning to become an extratropical storm because the convection decreased substantially, his forward speed picked up, and he's becoming elongated along a frontal boundary - i.e. merging into a front. 'Eager Igor' (hee hee, wish I'd thought of that one sooner!) is now racing NE at 28 mph. His center is currently in the vicinity of 38.2N, 61.5W.
Despite the relatively weak storm (low wind speed), his central pressure has been unusually low. It's now at 968mb, but earlier today he had winds of 75mph and an even lower central pressure. This is the lowest central pressure I recall seeing for such a low category storm. I'll go into this and the central pressure/intensity malarky in more detail one day (advance warning of some science! ooh, aah! ;-)).
Newfoundland got some rain, and ... <pause... check google map of Canadian provinces>... so have parts Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island. ;-) Nothing too bad from the looks of the satellite images. Not really any thunderstorms. They'll get some blustery weather up there... I'm sure it'll be just as nice as any other summer day for them.   
The NHC still keep him as a 'post-tropical' cat 1 until Wednesday, and then he'll make landfall as a 'post-tropical' Tropical Storm (!!) in ... umm... Greenland (!) on Thursday, where he'll get thoroughly depressed at the melting ice and leave as a 'post-tropical' Tropical Depression (!!). Hmm... I'm not sure this new nomenclature (jargon) of 'post-tropical Tropical' stuff is quite working for me. Can't we go back to 'he'll become an extratropical storm' and leave it at that?
Tropical Storm Julia:
As for Julia, the latest NHC advisory about Tropical Storm Julia says "JULIA LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS". So umm... why persist in calling her a Tropical storm? Why not an extratropical storm or low pressure system with wind speeds of 45mph and a low pressure of 999mb? She's at around 34.7N, 46.4W. That's not in the tropics. That's in the extratropics. And she's more of a low pressure front now than a tropical storm. Oh well. She's moving E at 8mph. She's not very strong at all. This is my last entry on Julia. She did a good thing back there making friends with Igor. It kept him from being too boisterous! :-)
Atlantic Blobette:
This picked up in convective activity today. I am not sure why it's not yet a Tropical Depression. Looks like closed circulation to me. Vorticity is good in the lower troposphere. Ho hum. Maybe tomorrow.
On another note... I got an email about possible Caribbean storms from Teresa F.. Storms tend to develop in the western side of the Atlantic - the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the western Atlantic - late in the season (October/November) or early in the season (June/July). 
The sun has gone to sleep here, and so must I!
Another batch of ramblings tomorrow. :-)   
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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