Thursday, September 09, 2010

Tropical Depression Igor and the Atlantic Blobette: September 9, Update A

Sorry about the absence! I've been travelling back to Planet Earth. I am back with a new philosophy: "If I ignore them, they will vanish." It's the opposite to "If you build it, they will come". You heard it here first. ;-)
Tropical Storm Hermine:
'Her-meen' turned out to be mean, didn't she? For a Tropical Storm she did have a fair amount of convection and vorticity in her, which spawned a few tornadoes and caused quite some devastation and a couple of deaths. :-( She's gone now (more or less), so this is my last note on her.
Tropical Depression Igor:
Igor? Really? For a hurricane? That's the name they chose to replace Ivan? Really? Oh well. ;-)
Igor (pronounced: Ee-gor) went from blob to Tropical Storm yesterday sometime, and is now back down to a Tropical Depression. He has a lot of vorticity (A LOT), but wind shear and dry air are taking their toll and won't let that convection get too strong at the moment. The forecast had called for him to increase as a Tropical Storm into a Hurricane in a couple of days. Are you noticing a trend in these dinky storms that aren't getting as strong as the forecasts suggest? The problem is that the models don't have a good handle on dry and dusty air, which is why they are overpredicting some of these blobs. Same story with Gaston and a few others. Igor is at 16N, 26.4W, moving NW at 13mph, with estimated winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb.  Given the strong vorticity, I think there's a very good chance he will reform once he gets away from the dry/dusty air and wind shear. I'll mention him again when something happens.  
Atlantic Blobette:
Some moderate vorticity in the lower part of the troposphere, but no convection. This blobette is just outside the Caribbean, at around 12N, 60W. We'll see if the convection picks up. I'll also mention this one when/if something happens. Next name is Julia.
That's all for today folks!
Blog archives at

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: