Saturday, September 11, 2010

Tropical Storm Igor, the Caribbean ex-Atlantic Blobette & yet another Atlantic Blob: September 11, Update A

I heard from John L. that the Klingon Opera was sold out so there's no point in going. Oh well. Maybe some other time then. ;-)
Tropical Storm Igor:
He's at 17.4N, 41.2W, heading west(ish) at 18mph. Winds are officially up to 70mph and have been for a chunk of the day, with central pressure at 995mb. This makes him a strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Continuing the theme from yesterday, I think the NHC again have him at a lower intensity than he is - by quite a bit. Satellite images show an eye forming, but even worse... his vorticity is now strong throughout the troposphere. I think he might be a mid-to-strong cat 1, and he has the potential to become a cat 2. The track is a little murky for me to get a handle on today, but maybe tomorrow I'll have a better idea. I'm sure folks in the northern Caribbean and Bermuda are prepared anyway.
Caribbean ex-Atlantic Blobette:
Potentially the next Tropical Storm, this blobette has improved in looks over the past couple of days. Both circulation (vorticity) and convection had increased during the day, although convection just went bye-bye over the past few hours. Vorticity is still only in the lower half of the troposphere, and it's not very strong. I think it's definitely a Tropical Depression, but won't get to Tropical Storm status unless convection picks up again. It's undergoing some wind shear from the south, so most of the convection earlier today looked like it was a little north of where the center should be. But this is not very organized as storms go, so it's a bit difficult to see where the center is. Maybe somewhere around 15N, 67W. Maybe. It's bringing (or had brought) some squally weather to the VIs, PR, and Hispaniola already. The NHC have it at 60% chance of tropical depression formation in the next couple of days. It's moving westward(ish).
Atlantic Blob:
Hot off the press... well, hot off the coast of Africa anyway. This one has some decent vorticity (circulation) in the lowest half of the troposphere and convection is slowly picking up. I'll mention it again when it develops further (probably tomorrow in that case! ;-)). Next name is Karl. The NHC have this at a 70% chance of development. Personally, I think it's a little weaker than the Caribbean blobette at the moment.
Hmmm... that 'if I ignore them, they will go away' philosophy doesn't seem to be working very well. I might just need to re-think that one. ;-)
Toodle pips!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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