Saturday, September 04, 2010

Tropical Storm Earl, Fiona a remanent Low, Gaston a remanent Low, and a couple of blob-looking things: September 4, Update A

Finally, a short update. Yay!
Tropical Storm Earl:
He's at 45.8N, 63.2W and is visiting northeastern Canada (Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and er whatever else they keep up there ;-)). Winds are 70mph, so he's still a pretty strong Tropical Storm (range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is 965mb and he's moving NE at a whopping 40mph! There isn't too much in the way of convection left compared to earlier in his life, but it's still more than Fiona or Gaston at the moment. Mostly rain with a couple of small thunderstorms I'd guess. However, he still has a lot of vorticity, and it hasn't changed since yesterday (not even in the highest levels of the troposphere). The forecast keeps him as a Tropical Storm until Tuesday. I think he'll become one of those 'Post Tropical Storm' things that the NHC have introduced as 'new' terminology for this year. Given the vorticity, I agree that he will persist for at least another couple of days as some sort of stormy weather system.
Fiona, a remanent Low:
She's hardly got any vorticity and next-to-no convection. Bermuda scored one for the team, and she pretty much dissipated in that region. Well done you guys! :-) The low is now just northeast of the island. This is my last entry on this system.
Gaston, a remanent Low:
The NHC have increased his chance of becoming a Tropical Storm to 80%. Convection has increased, but only very slightly since yesterday. He is still surrounded by dry and dusty air. Vorticity is good in the lowest half of the troposphere, but not in the upper levels. At the moment I think the most this will become is a Tropical Storm. If that. His center is at 16.5N, 46.6W and he's moving westward at 10mph. It looks like he will begin to move WNW though, towards that northern corner of the Caribbean. Too soon to say if he will remain in the Atlantic or what he'll do when he gets there.
A couple of blobby things - Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico:
The one in the eastern Atlantic has had it's chance of development dropped to 10% since yesterday. No surprise there.
There's a mass of convection in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but there isn't much in the way of structure. I don't think this will develop unless that vorticity improves. 
If there are any developments on these two, I'll write about them otherwise I'm not going to bother.
That's all for today, stormwise. For those who are wondering about life on another planet, so far today I've seen Scott Bakula, Gil Gerard, Kevin Anderson, and Garret Wang, along with a host of other aliens and whatnots. Back into the fray. :-)
Until the morrow my friends!
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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


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