Saturday, June 27, 2009

The Caribbean Blob: June 27 Update A

Has everyone got their hurricane supplies ready? I'm ready... wine, check,
ice cream, check, pets, check, umm... what else were we supposed to have?

This blob in the Caribbean is an interesting little thing. Heavy
convection continues in this system, but it is northeast of the
circulation because of wind shear. The circulation is certainly better
defined today and is heading in a north-northwestward direction just off
the Yucatan peninsula in the Caribbean. The convection however is over the
Cayman Islands and southern Cuba.

The disconnect between the convection and circulation is keeping this blob
weak and whilst there is wind shear it will be difficult for it to get
organized. It isn't even officially a Tropical Depression yet, let alone a
Tropical Storm.

This Blob (not to be confused with the famous green gelatenous Blob from
the movies) is slowly heading in a northward direction and will eventually
enter the eastern side of the Gulf in some form. At the moment it looks
like it will generally be moving towards the Big Bend/western side of
Florida... but that's days away and all sorts of interesting things can
happen before then. For example, it may get hit by a gamma ray from outer
space and not survive. Or wind shear may stay strong and it may not
survive in any cohesive manner and just be a nice blob bringing a spot of
rain and good surf. To the Surfers: no point in hiding, I know who you
are... I can *hear* you praying for a good surf from here.

Stay tuned to see what happens in the next thrilling edition of "The
Caribbean Blob vs. Gamma Rays from Outer Space or Wind Shear".

Have a lovely Saturday! :)

p.s. Thanks CH for fixing the blog site for me!! It looks *much* better :)

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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