A Special Update: July 23

And Now For Something Completely Different! (Monty Python)

For about 5 years I've been rambling on (and on and on) about tropical
storms and closely related items such as climate, pressure fields, sea
surface temperature, rarely-used words, glasses of wine, snakes in my
car, Hugh Hefner's critically acclaimed articles, Keanu Reeves etc.
(umm... the last four items are not necessarily directly connected to
each other ;)).

Well, there may be a disruption in my endless (and obviously fabulous
and witty!?!) musings... I am moving to the UK. I need advanced
cup-of-tea-drinking and wellie-boot-polishing classes, and will probably
take up morris dancing and corn-dolly weaving when I'm not re-re-reading
Jane Austen or watching Dr. Who. I will try and keep going with tropical
storm updates from 'that side of the pond' but if things do not work out
or I start spelling 'color' with an extra 'u', that's the reason why.
There shouldn't be any problems but one never knows with all this
new-fangled technology. I'll keep you informed if there are any changes
in how you receive the updates and I'll still be posting to the blog
site: jyotikastorms@blogspot.com.

About 10 folks have been with me from the humble beginnings of this
endeavour (note extra 'u'... I'm practicing) and are (a) are still
talking to me, and (b) still have their sanity. Well done you! Bravo!!
Your resiliency will be rewarded...need any junk...er valuable items
that I'm not shipping? You can sell them on ebay when I'm famous. ;)

If, for whatever reason, I can't write about tropical storms, someone
(GG) suggested I should write about the UK weather instead: "Rain.
Drizzle. More rain. A touch of fog." Hmm... maybe not. His other
proposed topics include NASCAR, politics, poodle hair-weaving (I'm very
tempted), and cigar-rolling. I intend to keep dabbling in this writing
lark, so all suggestions welcome. I have a couple of other interesting
ideas running amok in my head as well.

This is not farewell, nor adieu, and the sun has not gone to bed now...
it never rises in the UK so how can it go to bed anyway? :)

It'll just be something completely different for me, but hopefully not
for you!

Toodle pip for today,
J.

The Ex-Caribbean Blobette: July 22 Update A

I wouldn't want to have had a sun-bathing beach vacation planned in the
Bahamas this past week! Not only did they get lashings of rain with a
good dollop of thunder from a front that moved eastward off the US a few
days ago, but they are just emerging from another round of the same sort
of weather from the blobette that was in the Caribbean yesterday. Talk
about the not-so-perfect storm.

Our little blobette has crossed PR, Dominican Republic (DR)/Haiti and is
now in the western Atlantic, with continued heavy thunderstorms. The
interaction with those islands and the winds aloft (i.e. at high
altitudes) reduced the circulation (although it still has a bit). But
the convection has now kinda-sorta merged** with the heavy convection
that was already over the Bahamas/western Atlantic from the front, and
it's now a big blobette with clouds (not necessarily rain though)
stretching from the DR to the Carolinas.

**kinda-sorta merged: highly technical and complicated terminology that
translates loosely to "kind of, sort of merged". ;)

I think this will be my last post on this system unless it looks like
developing. I do like these half-hearted little systems... they remove
some of the heat without creating quite the havoc.

Ciao for now,
J.

Blog entries archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Caribbean Blobette: July 21 Update A

Our 'little' blobette is in the Caribbean at about 66W, 17N, south of
Puerto Rico and the VIs. And it's growing.

In my humble opinion (that, as you know, I very reluctantly share from
time to time ;)) I think the NHC should upgrade this one to a higher
percentage of forming. The circulation has improved since yesterday, and
as soon as it got into the Caribbean the convection blossomed. The NHC
currently give it less than 30% chance of developing into a Tropical
Cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Water temperatures are a balmy 29 deg C and there is a lot of water
vapor in the atmosphere surrounding this system. Wind shear is still
high, at 30-40 knots, which is the primary reason why it's still
struggling to develop (although if you live in the PR and VIs, you might
disagree with this 'struggling to develop' malarkey later today).
According to the NHC, this blobette is moving W-NW at 15-20 mph which
seems a fair assessment.

Someone mentioned the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) yesterday as a reason why
the storm is inhibited... this is a layer of air (you could have guessed
that much, right?) which carries dust that comes off Africa (I'll let
you guess what part of Africa) and crosses the Atlantic. In some years
it can reach the Caribbean/eastern US and has been linked to increases
in health problems (such as asthma) amongst other things. Some friends
of mine are working on looking at the buggies (technical term ;)) that
are carried across on the grains of sand. Any Hollywood producers
reading this? I have a scary story idea ....

From satellite images, at the moment the SAL is not as strong (dense)
as it can get and it only extends from Africa to part way across the
Atlantic (about 50W), so this system is not being impacted by the SAL.
Storms and the SAL is an active area of research.

Have you guys in the VIs/PR got your brollies and wellie-boots ready? It
look like you might be in for some stormy weather today.

More later!
Toodles,
J.

p.s.... those who are wondering about the very large convective area in
the middle of the Atlantic at about 45W, 5N, that isn't mentioned on the
NHC page... it's not got any circulation. Compared to the blobette in
the Caribbean and the smaller blob over the bahamas (that I'll mention
if it looks like anything is going on), the one in the Atlantic is
relatively minor.

Blog entries archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Blobette in the Atlantic: July 20 Update A

Woo hoo... we have a blobette! :) I've been watching this system as it
nonchalantly crossed the Atlantic over the past week, trying to decide
whether it would stay in one piece. It did. Over the past couple of days
it has improved in both circulation and convection, so my spidey-senses
are telling me to send out an update.

It is currently at about 58W, 14N, just east of the Caribbean Windward
Islands. Convection is strong, and there's pretty good circulation in
the lower part of the troposphere (ooh... scientific jargon. Isn't that
thrilling?!? :) I'll give a brief description below). Water temperatures
are 28-29 deg C, certainly warm enough for a storm, and as it heads into
the Caribbean, temperatures warm up a tad more. The major factor
inhibiting this system is very strong wind shear. I agree with the NHC,
it's unlikely to develop further any time soon, but I'll be keeping an
eye on it.

*Science Alert*. The troposphere: this is the lowest section of our
atmosphere and extends up from the earth to about 15-16km in the
equatorial regions, and to about 8km in the polar regions of the planet.
All our 'weather' essentially occurs in the troposphere. It is defined
by decreasing air temperature with increasing height. You would know
this if you climbed a mountain. Or the easier option, of course, is to
just look at pictures of mountains and see the snow at the top. :) The
top of the troposphere is called the tropopause. The height of the
tropopause varies from place to place. Strong tropical storms have
clouds that reach as high as the tropopause - and in a few very strong
cases, they can extend even higher into the next layer up. The layer of
the atmosphere above the troposphere is the stratosphere, which is
defined by air temperature increasing with height. The ozone hole is in
the stratosphere. *End Science Alert*

Phew... now I need to go and have a nap. ;)

I'll send out another update tomorrow.
Ciao,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Atlantic Blob: July 4 Update A

I thought I'd better write in case you thought I'd fallen asleep! There's
a blob out there in the Atlantic but it's unlikely to develop much unless
wind shear dies down.

It has excellent circulation (the best we've seen so far this year),
centered at about 31N, 38W, and is moving in a general east-southeast
direction. But wind shear is quite strong so the little convection it has
is all to the east of the circulation. In the early hours of this morning
wind shear had died down a bit and it looked more like a 'proper' storm,
but that was very short-lived and its fallen apart again.

I'll keep an eye on it, but unless things look like they'll develop I
won't be sending out another note on this blob.

Happy July 4th to my American friends! Cup of tea anyone? ;)
J.

Blog entries archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/

-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------