TD Henri: October 8 Update A

Henri isn't looking so hot. A combination of wind shear and dry air took
their toll. He still has decent circulation, but sans (another French word
:)) much convection. This is my last entry on Henri unless he does
something naughty. :)

Au revoir jusqu'a la prochaine fois.
J.

Disclaimer: It's not my fault if the French doesn't mean what I think it
means. ;)

TS Henri and another Atlantic Blobette: October 7 Update A

TS Henri. The blob I said we should keep an eye on a couple of days ago
has indeed developed and became a TS late yesterday. He's currently
heading westward(ish) at about 15 mph. Because of wind shear the center is
west of the convection, which has restricted his growth. If you look at a
satellite image you can easily see it swirling away. For example, go to
the NHC website (www.nhc.noaa.gov) and click on the word 'satellite' on
the left panel. Scroll down until you find 'Atlantic Floater 1'. No, this
is not referring to a dead fish in the Atlantic ;). Under that you should
see 'Henri'. The 'floater' satellite imagery is basically only used to
provide close-ups of a storm when there is one. To see a still picture of
Henri, click on the word 'Image' next to visible. If you want to see a
movie (provide your own popcorn :)), then click on 'java' in the same
line. I prefer the movie version myself, it just takes a little longer to
download.

He's currently at about 19N, 58.3W. Wind speed is 45mph, making him a weak
system (TS range: 39-73mph). Central pressure is only 1007 mb.

Mais (that's 'but' in French cos Henri is French :)), the convection is
quite strong for such a small storm. It is all to the east of the center,
and has died down a bit in the last few hours. Mais (I do know other words
in French you know), the cloud tops were quite cold earlier, which means
deep convection. It's a good thing there has been some shear otherwise
Henri would have been bigger! He's over water with temps over 29 deg C.
And circulation is still pretty good in the lower half of the troposphere.

The forecast is for him to downgrade to a low by tomorrow evening because
of persistent strong wind shear. I'm a little more cautious about this,
because when I looked a couple of hours ago, the wind shear looked like it
was diminishing. Hopefully it'll be enough to keep him at bay.

There's a large blobette just southeast of Henri. Lots of clouds, but not
a lot of circulation, so I won't write more on the blobette unless it gets
organized.

It rained here all day today. That's about all we got from Grace and the
front she was part of. I did find my Wellington boots - thank you all for
your comments there. Hee hee.

I'll be back with hopefully a wrap-up on Henri tomorrow.
A bientot mes amis! :)
J.

Disclaimer: These are not my opinions. Er, no, that doesn't sound right.
Oh yes, these are just my opinions and not those of any organization I
represent. That's better. :)

TS Grace & Atlantic Blob: October 5 update A

From the NHC less than 24 hours ago: "TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC."

Hey, I live on the far northeastern edge of the Atlantic!

From the NHC in their last advisory: "GRACE RACING NORTH-NORTHEAST..."

Hey, I'm NNE of her current location!

The suprise to me is no longer that a tropical storm is heading this way,
but that this was even classified as one! It formed outside the tropics,
over water with temperatures of only about 21 deg C - you need
temperatures of 26.5 deg C for a tropical storm. It does have circulation,
but at no point has that been isolated from a line of higher vorticity
(circulation)... meaning that this system is really part of a front!! The
NHC say she'll be absorbed by a front in a few hours (which is heading
this way). At the most I think this should have been a Subtropical Storm!
Grr!

She's currently at about 45.4N, 16.4W (on a part of the map that you won't
recognize, as CM wrote and told me earlier ;)). Central pressure is
estimated to be 990mb, wind speeds estimated to be 65mph. She's zooming
NNE at 31mph.

She'll be downgraded tomorrow, so I'm not going to bother writing another
entry unless there's some really unusual weather here. Ha ha ha.

Atlantic Blob: this poor fella has been trying to get organized for a
couple of days. The circulation is good throughout the tropopause (lowest
section of our atmosphere), but the convection needs some work. It's worth
keeping an eye on this for the next few days, esp if you are in the VIs.
It's currently at about 13N, 45W. If anything looks like developing, I'll
write a note. Next name is Henri.

Now, where did I put my Wellington boots? ;)
Ciao for now,
J.

Disclaimer: The comments here are mine and do not represent the views of
any organization I represent. There's a much better disclaimer in the blog
archives. :)