Monday, October 05, 2009

TS Grace & Atlantic Blob: October 5 update A

From the NHC less than 24 hours ago: "TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE FAR

Hey, I live on the far northeastern edge of the Atlantic!

From the NHC in their last advisory: "GRACE RACING NORTH-NORTHEAST..."

Hey, I'm NNE of her current location!

The suprise to me is no longer that a tropical storm is heading this way,
but that this was even classified as one! It formed outside the tropics,
over water with temperatures of only about 21 deg C - you need
temperatures of 26.5 deg C for a tropical storm. It does have circulation,
but at no point has that been isolated from a line of higher vorticity
(circulation)... meaning that this system is really part of a front!! The
NHC say she'll be absorbed by a front in a few hours (which is heading
this way). At the most I think this should have been a Subtropical Storm!

She's currently at about 45.4N, 16.4W (on a part of the map that you won't
recognize, as CM wrote and told me earlier ;)). Central pressure is
estimated to be 990mb, wind speeds estimated to be 65mph. She's zooming
NNE at 31mph.

She'll be downgraded tomorrow, so I'm not going to bother writing another
entry unless there's some really unusual weather here. Ha ha ha.

Atlantic Blob: this poor fella has been trying to get organized for a
couple of days. The circulation is good throughout the tropopause (lowest
section of our atmosphere), but the convection needs some work. It's worth
keeping an eye on this for the next few days, esp if you are in the VIs.
It's currently at about 13N, 45W. If anything looks like developing, I'll
write a note. Next name is Henri.

Now, where did I put my Wellington boots? ;)
Ciao for now,

Disclaimer: The comments here are mine and do not represent the views of
any organization I represent. There's a much better disclaimer in the blog
archives. :)

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