Monday, June 30, 2014

June 29: Atlantic Blob,Update A

Just a quick update for now because this Atlantic blob is not quite cooked… it is relaxing near the Bahamas, sipping pina coladas, as one does. ;-)

The circulation has slowly been improving over the last day or so as it moved southward from the South Carolina coast. It is now centered just slightly north of Grand Bahama. It has struggled to become a fully-fledged storm (first one would be Arthur) because dry air around the blob has inhibited a lot of convection forming near the center, as you can see:
The sea surface temperature is about 29 deg C., with the upper 75-100m above 26 deg C. This is definitely warm enough to help the storm to develop (storms need sea surface temperatures of 26.5 deg C to develop) and it has helped to produce a few buckets of rain over parts of Florida (as I’m sure you may have noticed if you are there), to the west of the center of circulation.
Officially the forecast is for it to move to the south and west, and then loop back to the north and east, which should take it into southern Florida in the next few days – but because it is quite poorly formed at the moment, this may not happen. Given the dry air and proximity to land, I am not certain that it will develop into a fully-fledged tropical storm (the current official forecast is for a Tropical Depression in the next 2 days), but even if it does, it will mostly be a rainmaker (with some interesting thunderstormy sort of weather).

I’ll definitely be back tomorrow. We may have a Tropical Depression by then… or even a very weak Tropical Storm King Arthur! ;-)

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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