Wednesday, July 02, 2014

July 1: Tropical Storm Arthur, Update A

I just managed to get onto the interwebs after a long day of travel and meetings and eating of cheeses...

... and while I was busy doing all that, it looks like Tropical Storm Arthur was busy getting stronger. Currently the official winds are at 60mph, but I think this may be a bit too low. It looks like TS Arthur has good circulation in all levels of the troposphere (ooh... I feel a <Science Alert!>  coming on! ;-)), which is the signal we would only see in a hurricane! I think at some point today he may have reached borderline TS/cat 1 winds (around 75mph)... but there is so much dry air around that convection has not really taken hold, which stopped him from growing much beyond that and he may actually be weakening now as a result.You can see that Arthur been 'lanced-a-lot' by dry air (tee hee hee) in this infrared satellite image movie:

<Science Alert!> The troposphere. Our atmosphere is divided into layers – like a trifle or seven-layer dip or lasagna (depending on what country you are from). A characteristic of each layer is that the air temperature either increases with height or decreases with height. The troposphere is one of these layers. It is the lowest section of our atmosphere and extends up from the earth to about 15-16km in the equatorial regions, and to about 8km in the polar regions of the planet. All our 'weather' essentially occurs in the troposphere. It is defined by decreasing air temperature with increasing height. You would know this if you climbed a mountain or you could just use the much easier 'Florida option', which is to look at pictures of mountains and see the snow at the top. J The top of the troposphere is called the tropopause. Strong tropical storms have clouds that reach as high as the tropopause - and in a few very strong cases, they can extend even higher into the next layer up. The layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere is called the stratosphere, which is defined by air temperature increasing with height. The ozone hole is in the stratosphere. <End Science Alert!>

Weak storms have circulation in the lower sections of the troposphere, but hurricanes have circulation throughout the troposphere - and this is what we are seeing with Tropical Storm Arthur.

Officially winds are 60mph, central pressure 1001mb, and he is at 28.0N, 79.1W, heading Northward at a slow 4mph. Given the clear eye, the location is almost spot on (I'd say 28.1N, 79.1W) and he is moving NNW.

Here is the visible satellite movie for Tropical Storm Arthur, just because.

More Tales of Arthur, The Round Storm tomorrow.
Night night!

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DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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